Looking to book August 2023 travel and wow the fares are sky high. Double what I paid last year. Do we expect it to come down at all?

Who knows?? I don't think anyone (including the airlines) has a crystal ball.

In any case IMO it is far too soon to be looking for flights for next August. Schedules, routes, fares will all change between now and then.

It all depends on when you book it, and the date of the flight. Below is our history for 3 flights from SFO to CDG for 1 month trips. All are business class. All flights are/were operated by AF, but 1 was booked with Delta.

Booked Nov 18, 2021 for a flight on Aug 22 2022 - $10,000 Delta
July 8 2022 for flight May 30 2023 $13,000 AF
Oct 15 2022 for a flight Aug 30 $7,000 AF

Stu Dudley

Buying so early in the 11-month booking window means the airlines will set fares high enough to hedge against their operating costs going up (fuel prices, etc.) in the meantime. You're paying the premium for their risk avoidance.

By waiting you're giving time for the situation to become more certain and for all the current disruptions in the industry to moderate. That MIGHT result in fares going down (might not) but it removes some of the hedging rationale. Trying to time airfares is a bit like trying to time the stock market. Remember the airline revenue management departments are staffed with Hogwarts graduates. From Slytherin.

I think only US carriers have the 11 month thing. My Aug 30 AF flight returns on Oct 2, 2023 and was booked on Oct 15 2022. And it was $3,000 less than the 2022 cost for an August departure. My last 2 flights are in the future. Someone (not me) should determine what today's price is for business class on these same 2 flights. The May departure returns July 2.

Stu Dudley

they aren't sky high for me nor any different from what they were last year. In fact, they have been fairly similar for many years now, if you compare same type of fare, seating and carrier, nonstop or not, etc to the same place of course during same time period. Your comment is too nonspecific to understand why you are seeing that.

It varies - most carriers have a 330 day window, others 360, and some "discount" carriers like Southwest, Ryanair et al have much shorter windows. AFAIK nobody goes out farther than a year.

As others have noted, this is really too far out to be meaningful, from marketing realities. The airlines have to list something this far out, so, of course, they will list fares that will guarantee a phat prophit with no real idea of how jet fuel prices, competition, diseases, demand et cetera will pan out next summer. They are setting a high bar, because it would be idiotic not to.

Well - my experience as I documented above, shows just the opposite for our Aug 30 departure..

Stu Dudley

Thanks everyone.
I'm looking to fly from Boston to Greece (Athens/Santorini) in late August/early September.
I've made the same trip in 2017, 2018, 2019, (2020 - booked but cancelled), and 2022.
I generally pay between $650 and $800 per person, flying out on Fri/Sat/Sun and returning Tuesday.
Nothing under $1100 right now (unless I fly to Thessaloniki); most flights are around $1250
Generally I've booked in December. So maybe I should wait?

I don't think the OP is looking to book a Business Class fare. Coach is a different animal.

You should check out Scott's Cheap Flights. They'll send you deals from your airport. I've been getting great deals for Europe but it's been November through March mostly (we're thinking of April s I'm waiting for those deals to start showing). If you are flexible with your dates at all you can usually get a god deal..I believe they still have a free version (I do the pay version)

If you don't mind learning your airline codes (UA, AA, BA, LH etc.) and airport codes (LHR, CDG, FCO, BCN, etc.) the "Mileage Run Deals" boards on Flyertalk can be a very useful source of information on cheap fares. The "Premium Fare Deals" sub-board is also useful. Note both boards cover global travel, not just Europe.

Mileage Run Deals - FlyerTalk Forums

Example off the premium fare sub-board - https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/prem...-af-metal.html

Speculation is futile, no one here knows how airline inventory management works. Booking in November for next summer is certainly not too early. If it’s a good price, book it. If not, sign up for alerts for special offers, campaigns, sales etc & see if those are less expensive than what you are seeing now.