We're going to Southern Italy in May/June and I've been tracking airfare and mostly seeing fares a little over $1K (with one stop). We want to fly from Washington DC to Naples, round trip. I like to get airfare settled first, with flexible dates, so I can't book hotels until that's taken care of.

How long should I wait? I generally end up going for something late January, is that about right? I'd like to find something in the $800-900 range, will that likely happen?

Thanks,
Alice

Alice, I've been also watching airfare to Rome from DC/Balt for specific dates May 10 to 30 since Oct. I use Kayak.com to track fares. I found the fares for May to be $200-300 per ticket more than I was expecting to pay for our usual May travels to Europe.

I heard on a business TV channel that the US airlines have no intention of adding any additional flights so my hope for more airline seats and an airfare bargain was dashed!!! I bought our tickets last week as soon as USAir went lower than $1000 a ticket. These tickets are the most we've ever paid to fly in May but I'm afraid this might be the "new norm".

Good luck and I do hope you find better ticket prices than I did. Deborah

Alice,

Though I'm not entirely sure for how long you should hold out or continue searching for less-costly flights, one thing I found helpful when booking tickets to Italy (we bought early December for a trip at the end of March), was signing up for fair alerts with Trip Advisor and Kayak. If you haven't done this, they'll send you email updates anytime a fair reaches a particularly low level. You have the option to sign up for these with flexible dates, as well, which is helpful.

A few books that I've purchased post-ticket buying also recommended flying into one city and out of another to save some money. If you're not opposed to spending a few hours on train, this might prove a good option.

On an unrelated note - well, related to hotels - I recently purchased our Florence hotel through hotels.com and received a mind-boggling deal. Through the website, there was 35% off the hotel we chose, but it was a deal that wasn't publicly viewable until we started the process of purchasing the room (35% off a stay of four nights or more). All in all, we're getting a three star hotel VERY close to Florence city center for $500 total for seven nights. If you search for hotels in conjunction with airfare, you may be able to make up for a pricier ticket through a hotel deal like this.

sarah.

I've been doing a LOT of research for my trip in June (open-jaw, flying into Ireland, then returning home from Paris). Timing has been a hot issue for me, too. Here's what I've found so far. First, as others have suggested, be sure to sign up for alerts. Also, play out various scenarios through Kayak or Bing.com. If you have some flexibility on travel dates, that can help a LOT. Some days of the week are less than others, so check several options. Also (and this is important), keep track of what you find.
At this point, I think it is way too early to book, prices for your time frame will go down. Will they go down to last summer's levels? Hard to tell. Airlines may reduce the number of available flights to take capacity out of the market, but the economy may also keep people from traveling, so it will be interesting to see how the whole supply/demand thing plays out. The airlines don't know right now how this will balance out 5 months from now, so tickets are at a premium. As the date draws closer, airlines will start to discount in order to fill seats. supply/demand will determine how much they will need to discount. From what I've seen, it seems like airlines have about 60-90 days of visibility into future demand. I've noticed that almost all airfare sales require travel within 90 days of the sale. You can see this also in airfare trends for specific routes, the price seems to jump quite a bit 90 days out.
So, what does this all mean? My thoughts are that you should monitor things closely, but hold out until March for a good deal. Have some target prices in your head. What's the most you would want to pay? At what price is the "too good to pass up" deal? If you see that great price, snap it up. Otherwise, I wouldn't panic about booking something until early March. By that time, if you haven't found a great deal, your odds start to diminish. Also, where you're from has an impact. East coast/West coast, large hub/small-town airport, these factors can limit or expand your choices and may allow you more time to wait it out or force you to buy earlier. Me - I'm an optimist. If you have some flexibility on the dates and do your homework (and don't panic and buy too soon), I bet you can hit your target price.

well, I would not make the statement that fares are at a premium now and are sure to go down. It isn't that far out from May, and I personally don't think you will find what you want for $800 this year. Your time period is peak fare rates, after all.

It depends how much you want to make other plans, I've been in that same boat as I don't like making hotel reservations until I know my dates. In some location, peak season in resort areas, you can't just find what you want in hotels if you wait too long to book. I had that problem when I wanted to go to Provence one summer and lots of the places I was interested in were already booked by February. Also, air fares are not sure to go down to certain destinations, which get booked up way in advance (eg, popular resort areas at popular times), so that air fares actually go up the closer to the date you get. Also, oil/gas prices seem to be on the rise, so I wouldn't expect airlines to lower ticket prices for that reason, partially. I believe oil/fuel prices are now around double what they were a year ago.

I'm just speculating, of course, I don't think any of us on here know. It just seems to me that when airlines see muich less demand than anticipated for a season, they don't start cutting prices until into that season. For example, last year I guess Air France didn't sell as many tickets as they expected in the summer, so they had a very big sale for tickets, but it wasn't announced until around July as I recall, and then was for Aug-Sept travel.

I'd probably book by February for your trip, if it were me. It depends on the things you want to book, however -- if you don't care that much about particular hotels or kind of accommodations, there isn't that much problem in that regard.

Alice, one of the ways to monitor how full the flights are getting is to use orbitz.com. The US airlines and some of the European will tell you what seats are available when you are pricing airfare. It may not be exact but after I booked on USAir I did a check on Orbitz and it did show the seats I chose were no longer available. It's just another way to try to determine a possible price change.

If you are flying into Rome because of its' religious importance you could see blocks of seats disappear because of large church groups going to Rome. All those tour groups have to get to Rome someway!!!

griz fan gave you very good advice and that is the way I've bought tickets in the past. That was also my plan last October for a DC/Amsterdam trip. Unfortunately for my pocketbook the best fares actually came in June but I held out until Sept. The plane thru Philly was full and I paid more for those tickets than I ever have for an October trans-Atlantic flight and it was even a 757 and not a 330!!

Because I usually have a particular hotel I want or specific house to rent I do my land reservations first and then hope I can catch the best airfare price. Deborah

Thanks for the good advice. I am getting fare alerts from Kayak, Bing and Fare Compare. I check ITAsoftware, Vayama (I used them last year when we went to Greece), Cheaptickets, Mobissimo, Orbitz and particular airline sites. My goal is to have my airfare by end of Jan and my hotels booked by end of Feb. I AM flexible on my dates, and I'll fly whenever it's cheapest in May/June (which will probably be early-ish May). I'm worried about waiting until March.

I thought I'd found a GREAT fare from British Airways on Mobmissimo - $815! Then I realized the flight flew INTO Heathrow and OUT of Gatwick! I couldn't figure out how to tell the site I didn't want to change airports. THAT was a disappointment.

I care about the trip duration, and I like to go over during the night, arriving morning - midday. I like to leave late morning if possible, I do NOT like 6:45 a.m. flights. I don't want more than 1 stop. So I factor in all those things.

Also, you may find this amusing - I spend a lot of time looking for fares, and when I finally find something, my husband is interested in the KIND of airplane, he likes some better than others. It takes GREAT restraint on my part, to tell him nicely that if he really doesn't like an Airbus (or whatever), he's free to find other flights for us!

Alice

Here's my two centimes...

Two items to be booked on the trip, airfare and hotel(s). In terms of $, the airfare will the lesser cost. In terms of booking, if I wait for better airfare, I may save...couple of hundred. If I guess wrong, will still be able to get flight, but higher cost perhaps. Meanwhile, while I wait for the flight, being peak season, hotel rooms are getting booked. If several locations, gets even harder and may have to settle (or pay more). So to me the hotel is more critical, so I'd book the flight sooner rather than later, giving me greater flexibility and choice on hotels. You may pay more for flight, but save on hotel rates or get your choice versus what is left.

But, to show you I don't always follow my own rules, in May I decide I wanted to go to London for a week. Looked around, and picked a hotel/flight combo on Expedia on a Sunday, leaving that Thursday And got a good deal.

I bought our tickets to Italy (open jaw- into Venice out of Milan) on Air France last Tuesday night. I had been watching and waiting and eventually just bought the tickets $810 round trip from Houston. I stop at CDG. I am ok with the price as I ahve been looking for a few months and 755 was the lowest I saw but then I got bronchitis and spent 2 weeks sick and did not buy. Oh well. By the time I looked again they were 928 and then the went down to 810 afew days later. I jumped at that price.

Michel, your point is well taken. Total hotel costs will exceed airfare. And I always have to remind myself not to get hung up about a few hundred dollars on a trip that costs thousands of dollars.

Irock, I will add Air France to my watch list!

Alice

Flying into Heathrow and out of Gatwick shouldn't be a deal-breaker, as long as there is enough time between flights to make the transfer. There is (or there was when we did it) good shuttle service between the two.

I don't know why British schedules so many of their flights to Italy to go out of Gatwick, now that they have all of T5 at Heathrow. This is one reason were ar going to italy via Switzerland in June (the other reason is I just want a short stop in Switzerland!). But for southern Italy that wouldn't work.

Anyway. . . good luck. I would find the stress of watching my hotels possibly book up too great to be worth saving $200 or so on airfare. So we follow the rule of buying when the price looks "good enough", and then not checking back.

I just checked on the British airways website and you can get nearly the same price ($890 pp, including all taxes) by flying to Rome---without the Gatwick transfer. all flights go into and out ot Heathrow.

Or you can fly to Naples, with the Gatwick transfer, for $873. the cost of teh bus transfer might cover the difference.

And is Rome such a bad option? It's a short hop from there to Naples and the rest of your destination.