Airfare now vs. after new year

Dec 19th, 2007, 09:14 PM
  #1  
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Airfare now vs. after new year

Trying to book a flight may 27-may 30, 2008 but $260-280 being the cheapest on every site just doesn't seem right. Do you expect it will go down as the next month or two passes?
JameJamerz is offline  
Dec 19th, 2007, 09:20 PM
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I agree. The fare does not seem right. I took out my trusty "crystal ball" and it told me that the fare should be $300-320 for the unknown route.

Go figure.

btw, did you notice upsurge in the price of fuel in the last year or so???),

just a thought.....
AAFrequentFlyer is offline  
Dec 20th, 2007, 10:56 AM
  #3  
 
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Where from/to? Go to travelocity and do a search with flexible dates all the way thru November. That might give you some idea of what a low price might be. Might be that the price for travel in March is $150. Doesn't mean that you'll ever get that price for your dates, but at least you will know that $260 is not rock bottom.

It would be good to know what the booking classes are on the carrier. If it is a Q fare on United then I would wait. If it is a W fare then I might buy it or might wait. If it is a United T fare (or S,K,L) then I would buy it now.
mrwunrfl is offline  
Dec 21st, 2007, 10:20 PM
  #4  
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I realized i forgot to put that I am flying Chicago to Vegas and my dates are set...not flexible.
JameJamerz is offline  
Dec 22nd, 2007, 08:55 AM
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On United it is $278 all in for those dates on an S fare. That would be nonstops from ORD. They should be able to do $50 better than that.

Saw Northwest fare for $40 cheaper but connecting both ways.

It's too early to book it on Southwest.
mrwunrfl is offline  
Dec 23rd, 2007, 06:40 AM
  #6  
 
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If you knew the answer to this question you could start your own website and become rich.

Now that I think about it, you can start your own website and become rich and still not have any idea what the price will be.

Good luck.
SamH is offline  
Dec 24th, 2007, 01:32 PM
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Nonsense. Of course we can predict. You can use AAFF's crystal ball but I don't think it is accurate. There was a fuel price jump several months ago and I don't recall seeing any big jump in fares.

The fact that Southwest hasn't published their fares for that date tells me that there is a good chance that the price will go down at some point in the next month or two. Maybe not, but I'd wait.

I took a look at their fare for Jan 6-10 and their lowest web-only rate is $94. Comes out to $208 all in. I'd consider that the lowest fare, or near to bottom.

Sunday is busy for departures in Las Vegas and probably not so big on arrivals, considering it is Labor Day weekend. Yes, I'd expect the price to come down, but if it was April I'd take the $260 fare.
mrwunrfl is offline  
Dec 27th, 2007, 04:47 AM
  #8  
 
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Check flights for pricing on a daily basis, if you can do that. When you see the price drop, jump on it.

I've got tickets ORD-LAS for January. Just bought them about a week ago. I've been watching fares for a while and finally had to jump on it. Don't recall exactly what I paid, without looking on UA at my itineraries; but I do know that it was cheaper than I had seen in the weeks before.

I don't know if I'm right or not, but it seems like fares might change around WEDNESDAY... ? I know that fares go up and down with seemingly no reason (?) and there is one day of the week when prices change. Seems like Wednesday...

Maybe someone else can shed some light on that idea... lol

Good luck in securing a good price.

Carol
simpsonc510 is offline  
Dec 27th, 2007, 05:21 AM
  #9  
 
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U.S. DOMESTIC AIRFARES SURGE 13% YEAR-OVER-YEAR IN SECOND QUARTER AS DEMAND REMAINS STRONG; INTERNATIONAL AIRFARES GROW 6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The recent surge in travel spurred double-digit price hikes for U.S. domestic airfares in the second quarter of 2006, with the average fare paid jumping 13 percent to $247 one–way compared to $218 for the same period in 2005.


http://home3.americanexpress.com/cor...006/btm_q2.asp

and this is last year....
AAFrequentFlyer is offline  
Dec 27th, 2007, 05:48 AM
  #10  
 
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I understand the fare increases over time... that's a given.

But, I also know, from being a fare watcher, that fares go UP and DOWN all the time. If you watch them, you can jump on the fare when it is in its "down cycle"... I've done it.

Yes, it costs more, in general, to fly now than it did in the past. But you can still get a fairly good deal if you keep your eyes on the fares.

The flights to LAS from ORD for just a couple of weeks from now (on UA) went from well over $300 to $246.30. I bought them when they were $246.30!! All you have to do is watch the fares for a while.
simpsonc510 is offline  
Dec 27th, 2007, 09:18 AM
  #11  
 
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Yes, it costs more, in general, to fly now than it did in the past.

Actually, in real terms (inflation adjusted) flying is considerably cheaper now than at most times in the past 25 years. Last year the average domestic yield (revenue to the airlines) was 12.69 cents per passenger mile. In 1984 it was 12.11 cents, which translates to around 4.1 cents in current dollars.
Gardyloo is offline  
Dec 28th, 2007, 11:11 PM
  #12  
 
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A 13% rise in average fare paid doesn't mean that you will pay 13% more for your ticket.

I didn't read the accompanying description of the methodology used in that amex article, but note that the article attributed the average price rise to increased demand. It was not due to increased fuel prices.

Maybe fuel prices will drive airfares (average price paid) even higher but that doesn't mean that there won't be any sales. Demand could drop.
mrwunrfl is offline  
Dec 29th, 2007, 07:17 AM
  #13  
 
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Price today for ORD-LAS for January is 218.30. I booked too soon... ! As I've said before, watch the fares. The DO go up and down.

JameJamerz Too bad your May dates are not part of the "end-of-year sale" that UA is running right now. It only runs up to sometime in March.
simpsonc510 is offline  

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