For those who work and guide in Kenya... Im curious to know your level of optimism/pessimism for the country....

Lately I've been hearing of a weakening coalition.... land being grabbed from white farmers.... heckling at presidential speeches.... mungiki killings.... food insecurity.... clamping down on the domestic press.... and that's all been in the past month!!

It looks a little 'hot'.... and i know what happens in Kenya affects all of East Africa.

Any thoughts?

Not to mention groups of women withholding sex from their spouses to protest the growing divide and the political infighting.

I too am wondering is this a blip or the beginning of an unraveling. The faltering economy is not helping matters.

But I'm optimistic.

Why? What makes you optimistic?

Yes Lynn, please share your optimism so I can also feel better. Even if I plan travel to other parts of Africa, if Kenya becomes an unviable bolt hole for me, life becomes very much darker around the edges.

BTW withholding sex … does that apply to tourists as well?

Lynn, I'm with you!

Let’s find out why Divewop is optimistic too.

I’ll pass on advising tourists on their sex lives. The serious article of women partaking in a sex strike for the good of the country is linked here.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518465,00.html

I was optimistic until today when I read about the white cape buffalo calf born in Kenya, which is apparently a bad omen.

http://news.aol.com/article/albino-buffalo/445520

Interestingly, quite a few years ago when a white buffalo (bison) was born in the US, Native Americans and others saw it as a positive sign and omen of good will.

My optimism has more to do with my positive outlook and being hopeful than anything substantial.

It’s nice to read that Uganda does not want to go to war with Kenya over a border dispute involving Migingo Island in Lake Victoria. Rather than being gleeful, I’m thinking, “Goodness, I certainly hope war does not break out in East Africa over this.”

I just can’t believe Kenya could throw it all away and that fuels my optimism. But then I would have thought that about Zimbabwe. I think the leadership in Kenya is better to prevent a mess like Zimbabwe and other countries in Africa.

The whole world sees Kenya as a relatively stable force in Africa, so I would think there'd be more influence exerted from outside to maintain some stability. Moreso, unfortunately than in Zimbabwe. Almost the too big to fail philosophy that we've been undertaking with our banking.

But I'd like to know what people in Kenya think as their opinions would be most objective--optimisitic or pessimistic.

Here's Kennedy's point of view. Permission granted to post this:

Hi Kristina,
There is truly nothing so frightening currently in Kenya that would make one get sleepless nights. What we have here is a situation of political leaders with two parties who keep on jostling for more power for their parties.

AS you know, the coalition gets complicated due to the presence of the Vice President who is usually on the side of the President as much as he has his own party.

The party for the president is PNU (Party of National Unity). The party for the Prime Minister is ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) and the Party for the Vice President is ODM-Kenya. It split from the main ODM of the Prime Minister when they where in good books with the current Vice President. When both realised each wantwed to be president, they parted !

During the 2007 election, the three Gentlemen vied for the presidency in their respective parties. After the announcement of the results, the President needed support/numbers in Parliament and he chose to work with the Vice President Hon Kalonzo Musyoka ..... the ODM could not take it ..... then Chaos started ......!! Enter Koffi Annan and team!

When the coalition government was formed, the prime Minister felt that the coalition was between two parties and NOT three parties. The Prime Minister currently feels that most of his powers have been vested in the Vice President whom the Prime Minister does not recognize. He says the National accord was between the President & the Prime Minister. Period. He calls the Vice President a stranger in the coalition !

It is only this power struggle between the Vice President and the Prime Minister that brings about the fights that trigger verbal attacks from each direction thus making the coalition shaky.

As recent as last week, the two protagonists (read: Prime Minister & Vice President) were fighting, each to be be the Leader of government business in parliament. All along, the Vice President has always been automatically taking this position, but now, The Prime Minister feels it is his right since the coalition is between him and the President.

This issue was going to bring a lot of tension but the Speaker of parliament declared himself the temporary leader of Government until the two would have sorted themselves out. The two principals (President & Prime Minister) took almost 2 weeks without meeting and this again brought uncertainty.

Today, the President and the Prime minister met on a planting tree session. They were together and all appeared well.

I would say that generally, it is just this bit that tends to make things uncertain but it's currently working and there is a lot of optimism.

Our only other worry is the global finacial crisis as it has already dwelt a serious blow to tourist arrivals. We await the pick season (JUL - OCT) to see whether the figures will be any better, but for sure, as long as we have peace here, the numbers must increase due to the popularity of the migration.

PEACE is the only medicine for this country and I believe all is being done to achieve the same.

The Call for women to withhold Sex has flopped badly. The support is Zero. People feel family life has nothing to do with petty politics of the incumbents. There are other better means!

I hope this gives you a good picture on our optimism and pessimism. To tell you otherwise would just be to theorise on what may happen and what may not!

If there is one thing you feel I need to address, kindly feel free to ask specifically and I shall be glad to do so.

Asante sana,
Kennedy Muthoka

Now we know that Kennedy is a staunch Kibaki supporter.

I’d say the problem with Kenya is mass poverty and inequality, and an astonishingly corrupt and greedy “elite”. Rule of law isn’t impressive either.

I wasn’t going to get into this thread, but I think this explains the situation quite well:
http://www.peoples-parliament.org/spip.php?article36

Kennedy will support whoever will give his country peace. I wouldn't read anything political into this from his side. Kennedy only wants stability and peace in Kenya and the world. He is NOT taking sides. I know him. He hates politics and all the bickering that ensues from it. He's a law abiding citizen and a good husband and a great father to two girls.

Amen!

From what I’ve read on Fodor’s I have no doubt that Kennedy is law abiding citizen, a good husband and a great father to two girls, and that he wants peace, but his email is as politically impartial as I’m impartial to any antelope.

Thanks for all the contributions. I hope the white cape buffalo calf turns out to be a good omen.

Some rain would help things out too.