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Pre-purchase train tix? fly into Milan, train to Venice, busy travel time

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I will arrive at 9:35am into Milan, then link to Milano Centrale, where I will take a train directly to Venezia Santa Lucia. I would LIKE to purchase early for the cost savings, and too, concern that a few days before Christmas, travel will be busy. HOWEVER, it is quite probable that flights will be not on time coming into Milan, which throws the whole thing off!!

Questions.

Do you think I should gamble with a reservation? Or gamble with purchasing tix when I get to Milano Centrale?

Thanks!!! There are four of us traveling, FYI.

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