Taiwan trip
Mar 15th, 2005, 07:49 PM
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Taiwan trip
We'll be traveling to Taiwan this coming Saturday. Given the current situation between China and Taiwan, should we worry if anything bad is going to happen? Can anyone living in Taiwan currently give some info on this?
Thanks in advance.
Thanks in advance.
Mar 15th, 2005, 08:15 PM
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I don't live in Taiwan, and this is strictly a long-distance and inexpert view. However, from all the reports I've seen it seems clear that nothing "bad" will happen so long as the Taiwan government doesn't do anything unusually provocative. Didn't the Taiwanese people recently elect a government that's committed to closer relations with the mainland, and reject a leader more inclined towards outright independence?
The Chinese government seems to have a policy of playing a waiting game in the expectation that reunification will eventually occur peacefully. Certainly it's hard to see anything that would represent the seeds of an armed conflict any time soon, if ever. I'd be interested to hear views from people closer to the action.
The Chinese government seems to have a policy of playing a waiting game in the expectation that reunification will eventually occur peacefully. Certainly it's hard to see anything that would represent the seeds of an armed conflict any time soon, if ever. I'd be interested to hear views from people closer to the action.
Mar 15th, 2005, 08:41 PM
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All the "speeches" you hear in China and in Taiwan by politicans or officials are for domestic consumption. The current Taiwanese president Chen Shiu-bian got elected twice with strong independence stances, but he's also a pragmatic politician so he soon toned down the rhetoric, especially after strong words from the US government, which wants status quo.
Same thing on the mainland side. The reason for the recent stuff is that Chinese President Hu Jintao needed to finalize his rise to the top by also becoming the Military Chief during the just completed 10th Chinese Congress. One cannot show as weak when doing that.
But in the big picture, here are the real factors that make peaceful unification more likely:
- Closer ties between the two sides. Lots of Taiwanese investments in China. Recent direct flights between the two over Chinese holidays. China will suffer tremendously economically if they decide to attack Taiwan.
- China is getting weathier, so the living standard between the two sides are getting closer. In fact, the social and economic structure of China is becoming more and more like the Western world or Taiwan.
And factors that make war or no-unification more likely:
- China's military power is growing, and getting more modernized. The US will have to take a huge toll in defending Taiwan, meaning the US will become less and less likely to actually get involved.
- As time goes by, higher and higher percentage of the Taiwanese population will think of themselves as "Taiwanese" and not "Chinese". And they have less and less interest in any form of unification. And Taiwanese aren't impressed with how the "One Country, Two System" moto is working in Hong Kong, 8 years since 1997.
- While China's social and economic structure is becoming more like Taiwan, the political structure isn't. Meanwhile, Taiwan's democracy will get more mature, so the two sides will actually grow even more apart.
Same thing on the mainland side. The reason for the recent stuff is that Chinese President Hu Jintao needed to finalize his rise to the top by also becoming the Military Chief during the just completed 10th Chinese Congress. One cannot show as weak when doing that.
But in the big picture, here are the real factors that make peaceful unification more likely:
- Closer ties between the two sides. Lots of Taiwanese investments in China. Recent direct flights between the two over Chinese holidays. China will suffer tremendously economically if they decide to attack Taiwan.
- China is getting weathier, so the living standard between the two sides are getting closer. In fact, the social and economic structure of China is becoming more and more like the Western world or Taiwan.
And factors that make war or no-unification more likely:
- China's military power is growing, and getting more modernized. The US will have to take a huge toll in defending Taiwan, meaning the US will become less and less likely to actually get involved.
- As time goes by, higher and higher percentage of the Taiwanese population will think of themselves as "Taiwanese" and not "Chinese". And they have less and less interest in any form of unification. And Taiwanese aren't impressed with how the "One Country, Two System" moto is working in Hong Kong, 8 years since 1997.
- While China's social and economic structure is becoming more like Taiwan, the political structure isn't. Meanwhile, Taiwan's democracy will get more mature, so the two sides will actually grow even more apart.
