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What Are the Chances of a Pilot Strike This Summer?

The strike threat at United, American, and Southwest comes after Delta raised pilot salaries by 34%.

Memorial Day weekend, considered by many to be the unofficial start to summer, is just around the corner, but already, a carefree summer of travel appears dubious as commercial pilots for several major U.S. carriers threaten to strike.

AP News recently reported on the potential for a pilot strike, noting that pilots at American Airlines were the first to authorize a strike. Southwest Airlines and United Airlines pilots are also threatening to strike if new contracts aren’t put in place.

The contract issue in question is higher pay. Pilots want it; airlines are considering it.

With summer on the horizon, a major pilot strike could wreak havoc on this peak travel season. 

Pilots at American, Southwest, and United and the unions representing them have taken notice of another major U.S. air carrier’s substantial pilot raises and are demanding similar contracts. Delta Air Lines’ made headlines in March when it was reported that its pilots would receive a 34% raise over a four-year contract—or what amounts to roughly $7 billion for Delta. 

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The Strike Situation

Pilots at these airlines can’t just automatically decide to strike, even if a majority are in favor of it, as both American Airlines pilots and Southwest Airlines pilots have indicated. The situation is a little more complicated than strike votes equaling a strike as federal law mandates U.S. mediation board approval for such a strike. What’s more: President Biden can act to prevent a strike if he fears it’s imminent.

Considering the President’s recent steps towards holding airlines accountable for flight delays and cancellations which significantly dampen—or even ruin—travelers’ plans, it’s quite possible Biden would take this measure to prevent a major strike from occurring.

The Biden administration’s rules are an attempt to ensure air travelers are appropriately compensated when travel inconveniences are more than minor or expected. “Our top priority has been to get American air travelers a better deal,” Biden said. So far, the administration hasn’t said anything about the threat of pilots striking this summer.

‘Fundamental Responsibility’

Earlier this month, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg referenced the busy season of travel ahead: “Summer travel is going to put enormous pressure on the system.” Secretary Buttigieg added, “Airlines need to accept their fundamental responsibility to better serve passengers.”

Meanwhile, in a statement from Southwest Airlines Pilots Association (SWAPA), Casey Murray, president of the association, said, “We do not take this path lightly… We want our customers to be prepared for the path ahead and make arrangements on other carriers so that their plans through the summer and fall are not disrupted.” 

Some travelers may already be avoiding Southwest Airlines, however, following an epic multi-day operational meltdown in December that resulted in millions of passengers stranded and almost 17,000 canceled flights. Holiday plans were dashed, luggage was lost for days, and Southwest was forced to face Congress to explain why things went so horribly wrong.

Simply making other arrangements, however, is not always plausible, regardless of airline preference. Driving instead of flying is sometimes an option and one that many opted for during the peak pandemic period, but not everyone is able to or wants to travel long distances around the country in a car. Thus, a reliance on air travel requires a reliance on the airlines.

What the Threat of Strikes Means for Travelers

In spite of the steps that must be taken before a strike can happen, there’s still some concern that the situation will have an impact on summer travel. 

In a recent statement, Southwest Airlines reassured passengers that the airline is “staffed and prepared to welcome travelers for their summer travel plans,” and American Airlines has expressed confidence that the demands of their contract negotiations will satisfy the employees, making a strike unnecessary. 

In a statement to Fodor’s, American Airlines said, “We remain confident that an agreement for our pilots is within reach and can be finalized quickly. The finish line is in sight.” On Friday, American announced they’d reached a preliminary labor deal, indicating an end to months of tense negotiations.

Nonetheless, any travelers remembering summer 2022 travel aren’t necessarily wrong to be concerned. Last summer’s air travel demands resulted in delays, cancellations, mishandled baggage, mishandled wheelchairs and scooters, long security lines, and pricey flights. In August, according to a report from The Department of Transportation, airline passenger complaints were up 320% compared to pre-pandemic figures. 

If the pilots do somehow end up striking—and not just picketing to express their satisfaction as United Airlines pilots recently demonstrated—that figure could balloon yet again.