mxylplik2

I tend to go to Southwest Florida when there is a hurricane. I was there last year around this time and had to leave early from Naples a day early (lucky I did as JetBlue canceled all their flights the next day). Question is what's going on with Ophelia and will it impact my visit Thursday to Sunday? Forecasters are saying this is slow moving and that makes it hard to predict its path. Others say that it will rain in central and eastern Florida. The visual cone covers a big piece of Florida with the outer ring right near Fort Myers. Not sure whether that means its going to be windy, rainy, etc. Forecast indicate scattered showers and t-storms - but I believe that is typical for this time of year.

Anyone with more insight on what usually happens to a place that is at the the outer right of the visual cone? Thanks.

GoTravel

As with quite a few storms we get, it will spin in place, eroding the beaches of Georgia and Northeast Florida and swamping the coast from Daytona up through the OBX.

Patrick

This one is really a big question mark, but most predictions having it go north from the middle east coast of Florida. A couple suggest it might come across the state, but the possibility of major effects on Ft. Myers and Naples are almost a non-issue.

joan

Naples looks to me to be outside of the scope of Ophelia, other than perhaps some rain. And being on the outer fringe can be a good thing - dry sunny weather usually. I wouldn't give it another thought if I were you! Here's the track:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USN...=none&pid=none

Shane

Wish it would make up it's mind. My family and I start a beach vacation outside Wilmington, NC on Saturday and I would dislike evacuating.

mxylplik2

Patrick,
What is your definition of "major effects"? I would hope its just rain but then again, rain is not a great thing when on vacation and for those who want to be pool-side to enjoy the sun.

Fort Myers not in first ring but in the second (outer) ring. Does the outer ring mean storm category 1 with 74-95 mile winds - if so, that can't be good.

Weather forecasts say scattered showers and t-storms with 90% prob for percip. Wife asking if we should cancel trip - any thoughts would be appreciate to assuage fears. Thanks.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/trop...0516_5day.html

mxylplik2

Sorry - 30% chance - 90 is Fahrenheit.

Patrick

currently weather underground shows a 6% chance of Ophelia passing within 65 miles of Ft. Myers.

Patrick

And this morning the probability for Ft. Myers has been reduced to 4%. The maps they're showing on TV today didn't even include a westward possibility.

Fairhope

Don't bet the farm!
Here are the computer models:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...516_model.html

mikemo

Ohelia is now a hurricane and the feds are unwilling to predict her course accd'ing to msn.
M

Fairhope

The models had a tight band for Katrina but look at this:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...516_model.html

OO

It's a bowl of pasta! I looked at so many model forecasts in 8 years living on the FL coast, but I don't think I ever saw one like that! The good news today is that it's back to tropical storm status. The bad is that it's got days and days before it makes landfall anywhere...if it does.

GoTravel

That stupid thing is supposed to spin in the Atlantic then head towards us making landfall as a category 2 or greater.

Crap.