rkkwan

AA has one and only flight ORD-JFK a day. To get there earlier, the OP will need to fly to LGA and then make the transfer (with luggage) themselves - which is pretty quick and simple by taxi.

AAFrequentFlyer

I used to fly 100K+ miles a year. That was ~70 segments per year, with about 2/3 of the segments being 2nd or 3rd connections. That makes it about 45+ connecting flights. Always picked the shortest possible connection. My success rate was ~97% of making the connections. Summer, winter fall and spring, Tampa, Miami, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York. All these cities had some "possible" weather related problems. Southern cities had lighting storms in the summer, northern cities had snow storms in the winter. Flying is not an exact science but the airlines do a pretty good job to get their passengers to their destinations, unless there is an extreme situation (it does not happen as often as vacation travelers think)

That means I missed 1-2 connections. That's it folks.

I'll stick to my theory. I hate airports (except for HKG CX F Lounges) and thus I made sure I had the shortest connection time possible at every other airport. It worked for me. If some of you want to hang around another boring airport then be my guest. Next time check the arrival board for the flight with closer connection and you will feel like a fool when you find out that you were sitting around for hours while the other passengers just walk over from their arrival gate to the departure gate, possibly having enough time to grab a bite or have a drink.

nytraveler

Weather is an act of God = and the airline has no control over it.

There are some flights in/out of many airports that are on time only about 50% of the time. (AIrlines don;t want to give up good time slots to keep plans full. It's just like overbooking - part of the game.)

It looks like this flight is usually on time - so you have a good chance - but no guarantee of making your ongoing flight. (There is NEVER any guarantee unless you have a private plane.)