Hurricane question for amateur (or pro) meteorologists
Sep 16th, 2005, 10:57 AM
#1
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Hurricane question for amateur (or pro) meteorologists
Maybe it's a stretch to call this travel-related, but what the hey --
I was looking at the Hurricane Center's chart for where hurricanes have made landfall in the US in the past 150 years. It seems as if the Gulf Coast -- from TX to the west coast and southern tip of FL -- has been hit a lot. But the east coast of FL hasn't been hit all that much (though last year was an exception).
So. Is there some reason for the pattern? Are the Gulf waters warmer than those on FL's Atlantic coast. Are there some prevailing winds that tend to push hurricanes into the Gulf area moreso than up the east coast? Or is it all just chance? Just wondering.
I was looking at the Hurricane Center's chart for where hurricanes have made landfall in the US in the past 150 years. It seems as if the Gulf Coast -- from TX to the west coast and southern tip of FL -- has been hit a lot. But the east coast of FL hasn't been hit all that much (though last year was an exception).
So. Is there some reason for the pattern? Are the Gulf waters warmer than those on FL's Atlantic coast. Are there some prevailing winds that tend to push hurricanes into the Gulf area moreso than up the east coast? Or is it all just chance? Just wondering.
Sep 16th, 2005, 11:16 AM
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once a hurricane wanders past the lower tip of Florida, it has nowhere else it can go but to land. The water is warmer there and it does make the storm stronger. If a hurricane doesn't get into that area of the Gulf, The land masses, various pressure systems and the Gulf stream tend to cause it to curve to the Northeast usually (but not always!!!). And so it doesn't hit. A good example is our present lady, Ophelia, she threatened, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and made a mess out of North Carolina, BUT she never, while she was at hurricane strength, went inland. If she had crossed over Florida as a tropical depression while she was down there, she would have strengthened and made a hit somewhere on the Gulf Coast.
Sep 16th, 2005, 11:19 AM
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In a nutshell, it is a crapshoot as to where a hurricane will land.
It has more to do with the origin of the storm and the temperature of the ocean water if it has to do with anything at all.
There are no patterns to hurricanes.
There was a thread in the early spring or late winter of 2004 and a poster or two were arguing that hurricanes did not hit the West coast of Florida.
The Gulf of Mexico is a couple of degrees warmer than the southeastern Atlantic (remember, from Mid June on, there isn't enough of a difference in the water temps from NC to FL to matter) and it is the warm water which fuels the storms.
The atmospheric pressure is what steers the storms.
It has more to do with the origin of the storm and the temperature of the ocean water if it has to do with anything at all.
There are no patterns to hurricanes.
There was a thread in the early spring or late winter of 2004 and a poster or two were arguing that hurricanes did not hit the West coast of Florida.
The Gulf of Mexico is a couple of degrees warmer than the southeastern Atlantic (remember, from Mid June on, there isn't enough of a difference in the water temps from NC to FL to matter) and it is the warm water which fuels the storms.
The atmospheric pressure is what steers the storms.
Sep 16th, 2005, 03:50 PM
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GoTravel,
"In a nutshell, it is a crapshoot as to where a hurricane will land." Boy, isnt' that the truth! We got hit 3 times last year; that after years of hearing people say, "The government built Kennedy Space Center here because hurricanes never hit east Central Florida."
Moral of the story? Whether you live on the Gulf coast or FL east coast or the Carolinas, or New England (yes they can go that far north) you live with the possibility of hurricanes .
"In a nutshell, it is a crapshoot as to where a hurricane will land." Boy, isnt' that the truth! We got hit 3 times last year; that after years of hearing people say, "The government built Kennedy Space Center here because hurricanes never hit east Central Florida."
Moral of the story? Whether you live on the Gulf coast or FL east coast or the Carolinas, or New England (yes they can go that far north) you live with the possibility of hurricanes .
Sep 16th, 2005, 03:57 PM
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Ooops! Sorry GoTravel, it sounded like that last paragraph was for you, and I know that living in SC you have way more first-hand hurricane experience than you want! It was really for the benefit of anyone who is unfamiliar with their range.
Sep 17th, 2005, 06:48 AM
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As I understand it, there are some westward currents of wind from Africa, eastward wind currents related to the jet stream across the US, and north/northeastward wind currents from the Gulf. They meet somewhere around the Caribbean or Florida or the Carolinas, depending, which sets up the meteorological "war theater."
Then there is the gyroscopic nature of a hurricane's own spin, which acts either with or against any of those "rivers" of wind.
Then there are the warm waters of the Gulf -- warmest in history this year -- and the warm waters of the north-eastward Gulf Stream, which adds "fuel" to the forces already in play.
And finally, note that differences between land temperature and water temperature can set up on-shore or off-shore breezes, depending on which is warmer than what and what time of day it is and what part of the year it is.
FL's Atlantic Coast hasn't exactly escaped hurricanes, but do note the slant of the state (not speaking politically here) back from the Atlantic as you go north, vs. the slant of the Carolinas back into the Atlantic as you go north.
If it seems like there are too many variables here to explain or predict much of anything, there are.....even with monster computers!
Then there is the gyroscopic nature of a hurricane's own spin, which acts either with or against any of those "rivers" of wind.
Then there are the warm waters of the Gulf -- warmest in history this year -- and the warm waters of the north-eastward Gulf Stream, which adds "fuel" to the forces already in play.
And finally, note that differences between land temperature and water temperature can set up on-shore or off-shore breezes, depending on which is warmer than what and what time of day it is and what part of the year it is.
FL's Atlantic Coast hasn't exactly escaped hurricanes, but do note the slant of the state (not speaking politically here) back from the Atlantic as you go north, vs. the slant of the Carolinas back into the Atlantic as you go north.
If it seems like there are too many variables here to explain or predict much of anything, there are.....even with monster computers!
