This has also been posted on cruisecritic.com, and I've been discussing it on the Australia and Airfares board here, but thought it might get more exposure here - as you can see, it's driving me nuts! Just trying to help out some friends that never travel, but I'm not going to keep going at the expense of the friendship ...

I don't know where to put this topic, but I am trying to help some friends book their Seattle-Miami or Fort Lauderdale airfare. They could even fly to West Palm Beach. They need airfare for January of 06 and have put me in charge of finding a good one. Recently there was a $225 RT that I encouraged them to take. Hemming and hawing, they missed it. Now there are fares in the low 300's, some of which are great nonstops or one easy stop. They want to wait til June or so to see if prices go down and there are any sales. I've told them that waiting til June COULD save them some money but could also leave them with crummy connections and schedules.

What is this latest fuel situation going to do to airfare prices? Does anyone have any idea?

I might just turn this responsibility back to them to deal with a TA and pay the $25 pp fee ... but if anyone thinks that the summer will yield some great fare sales to south Florida next January, speak now or forever hold your peace!

I can tell you what I would do. I'd wait. In my opinion it's way too early to buy tickets for January of next year. I'd wait until at least summer, maybe even fall. But, I could afford to buy the higher priced tickets if it absolutely came down to that, so it's a risk I'd be willing to take.

I can't really say what oil prices will do to airline prices. But, I do know that we've had a lot of ups and downs with oil prices and airlines have continued to run sales. It may be that their base fares are higher (I don't know), but you will always get fare sales to entice you to use that airline. Whether their exact route on their exact dates will come up again for $225 no one can say. But clearly your friends seem to be comfortable with the risk that higher prices might come, and they still want to wait.

If I were in your shoes, as the consultant, I'd tell them this, very clearly: Tell them that you're happy to help them look for the best prices using all the strategies that you're aware of. But, you are not willing to advise them on whether or not to buy at any given time for any given price. Tell them that prices could go up or down between now and then, so when a price comes that they can live with, buy. But you are unwilling to tell them what that price is.

Once they are aware of the risks, and that the decision is entirely up to them, you should be off the hook and just able to help them with the technical side of searching which can be difficult for those who aren't experienced with it.

I help my mom with this all the time. I keep an eye out for good fares and just keep passing the info along to her. When she says "buy" I help with that too, but I don't offer advice on what is a good fare.

It would stand to reason that given fuel is the second highest expense for an airline, that fares will increase if fuel prices rise. However, airfares result from many factors, like supply/demand, that may on a particular route push prices in a direction opposite fuel prices.

Honestly, unless you are someone who is familiar with the typical price on a given route, you'll never be certain you're getting the best deal.

Given you're talking about 1 year from now, I would think there is no benefit to purchasing a non-refundable ticket now. Maybe you watch prices for a bit and look for a fare sale that makes it clear you're getting a deal.

The flight that I originally booked from Newark to Honolulu in late January is now $300 cheaper. Go figure.

Budman, were you able to get a credit voucher for the difference?

It's a long story. I'll try to condense it.

- I booked 2 flights using vouchers ($700 each).

- Computer glitch. Flights showed up on line for $145 each.

- I called AA, and they said the flights showed for $800 each (had gone up).

- AA.com honored the $145 on line price.

- Since I had mailed in the vouchers and the tickets weren't written, they refunded me two $550 vouchers for the difference.

I consider it the luck of the Irish -- I'm only Irish after dark.

I can't imagine booking an airfare 10 months ahead of time. I'd tell your friends to chill. Put a "fare watch" on Orbitz and just wait for an email telling you about a fare sale - they happen all the time. I consistently get good airfare deals this way.

Andrew

Interesting story Budman!

Thanks for all the input - I think I'm going to help them watch but leave this decision up to them. The only ISSUE however is the fact they have very specific dates and times they NEED to travel - if and when a sale comes along, if it doesn't meet that criteria, they will have to bite the bullet and pay a higher fare, perhaps.

inthechips2 - One thing to consider mentioning to your friends. You say that they have specific times that they need to travel, which makes me believe they are planning on arriving at the airport and going straight to the ship. But most cruisers will tell you this is a dangerous idea! If they can get a good airfare and actually arrive the day before (or early in the day of if it's a late afternoon departure) they could afford a hotel room for one night. Planes are delayed all the time, sometimes by many hours. I missed a funeral due to a plane delay because I had to travel the day of the funeral. It would be sad for them to miss the boat!

So, they would have more options of flight times (and therefore be more likely to be able to take a fare sale) if they fly the day before.

Oh yes, we've already discussed this and they are flying in 2 days prior to their cruise, which leaves on the Saturday of Martin Luther King holiday weekend. Then they want to leave Fort Lauderdale (or MIA or PBI) on the Sunday right after the cruise. I've told them travel on Sunday is often pricey, and can be busy. That is more of a concern to me than arriving on a Thursday. They have, however, said if they had to, leaving on Monday morning could work, but it's not their first choice. I've told them travel on T/W and Sat is often the least expensive, but they can't extend their dates to that point. (And would likely make up any savings in hotels, etc.)

Ditto what Andrew said - put a fare watch in Orbitz, Travelocity and wait.

We fly quite a bit between FLL and SEA. We use the fare watcher programs and have never paid over $200 for a round trip. We even paid $119 about a year ago! Usually though, a fare will popup for $170 or $180 and that's when we book.

Good luck!

Thanks John. Yup, I have farewatchers in both. (And when the sales pop up, are the options usually fairly good as far as times, connections, etc.?)

I remember once snagging a $140 RT from SEA-TPA and I grabbed it just because it was so darn cheap and I wanted the miles!