When I first started checking a couple of months ago, fare was around $650. It's around $500 now and I'm tempted to just buy the tickets since there's really only one flight that works for us (non-stop, good time). But even $500 seems awfully high. I know there's no way to know for sure, but I'm hoping that more experienced travelers might advise me whether to wait a bit. The trip is for mid-June. Thanks.

That sounds unreasonably high. Fares from NY to SFO are routinely as low as $300-350, with as little as 2-3 weeks advance purchase.

Perhaps prices are lower due to the competition in the NY-SFO market, with JetBlue, Delta, UA, CO, and AA all flying the route.

A quick check of some random dates in January shows fares around $450 - perhaps that's the going bottom rate as PHL-SFO has much less competition (only UAL and USAir)

Don't buy this early. Prices will come down. Just check frequently. I think you should find something around $350-400 or even lower between now and perhaps end of March.

Just check once a week, or sign up on certain websites that will alert you when prices come down on specific routes on specific dates.

I think farecompare.com and farecast.com are a couple of them. There may be more.

Thanks for replies.
rkkwan: Thanks especially for those 2 websites. I brought them up, but not being computer savvy, they kind of made me dizzy. Am I correct that one has to buy from those sites in order to get those rates? I'd not be comfortable doing that. Most important, though, we need a non-stop flight, not just whichever airline has the cheapest fare. There's a USAirways flight that leaves Phila early afternoon, and that's the one we're aiming for. So I guess those sites wouldn't do much good? I do wish I felt more comfortable using all those new-fangled websites, but this old dog isn't very good at new tricks.
J62: Similarly, it's not just a matter of which airlines fly that route, it's that we need a specific flight.
I suppose that given the fact that it's impt to us to get that non-stop, I should quit being picky about fares and just bite the bullet and pay the hefty fare. (But it really does seem so very high!)

No, I believe if you register on those websites, you can "watch" a fare, and if fares go down below a level set by you, it'll send you an email to tell you about it.

I don't use these things myself, so maybe others can tell you specifically how to set them up, or if there are better websites to use.

But whatever you do, you're WAY TOO EARLY to find good fares for your trip.

Thanks so much for posting again. And with your indulgence, I want to ask again: Is it truly way too early given the fact that there's only that one flight that'll fit the bill? Thanks for your help and patience.

Well, it's up to you. If you have to go on that flight on that day, and you don't mind spending a little more, then you might just want to book it now for $500.

Some airlines will give you a voucher if prices come down. I don't fly USAirways, so I'm not sure of their policy when it comes to refunding you when prices come down. You may want to investigate that.

Another thing to consider is the risk of not going on that trip or that flight. Personally, I don't understand how one can be so certain that one have to take that specific flight 8 months from now. Lots can happen between now and then. But that's me...

Or how awful it'll be if you have to take the 4pm non-stop rather than the 2pm one. Or how unbearable it will be to make a connection?

I think you are right about being picky, because in reality you could reach your destination on flights with connections, or flights will departure times that are less convenient for you.

Most of the advice on this board is for people who are less picky, and thus have more flexibility in getting a good price.

I don't know which, if any, of the discount carriers fly this route. You could find out by going to the Philadelphia airport web site and seeing which discount carriers fly out of there, then checking each of them to see if they fly to San Francisco on your terms.

You might also consider alternative transportation to one of the NYC airports, which often have much better fares. If you could, for example, take a $50 train to EWR and save $200 on your airfare, that might be a good deal.

My experience is that it is too early to buy tickets for this flight, as the listed fare seems pretty high, and there is a good chance that there will be a better fare in three or four months; however, there is also a chance that the flight you prefer will sell out before then, so it is up to you how much you are willing to pay for the only flight you seem to want. Those of us who are less picky would probably wait a few months and see what shows up. I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with insisting on a non-stop that leaves at a convenient time for you; just that that insistence is likely to come with a price.

Travelocity is another web site that will monitor fares and send you an email when there is a change, but that information is based on their review of data from all airlines they cover, not on an individual airline. And those monitoring sites I have used do not seem to cover many of the discount carriers, such as, I believe, Southwest, which often have quite good prices. To find those discount carriers, follow my advice above to identify the carriers, if any, who have a route that would be acceptable to you, and visit their web site directly. My uninformed opinion is that the discount carriers do not change their fares as regularly as the legacy carriers, but they do have some great sales every once in awhile.

I much appreciate all the feedback--very kind and helpful. I know that the "pickiness" may seem peculiar, but it's necessary if we want to fly anywhere for vacations or for seeing friends and relatives. My husband is in his 80's, not real healthy, and very much disenjoys travel, esp by plane, esp in recent years. He's willing to make the effort, but I've got to make sure that the journey is as comfortable as possible. We live a couple of hours from the airport, so early morning flights aren't good, and we don't like getting somewhere at night-- just too tiring, ruins the next several days. Likewise non-stop flights: simply too taxing at this point in our lives. Wasn't always like this, and I'm grateful still to be able to travel at all; sooner or later even that "luxury" will stop.
Thanks again.

Your preferences are understandable and definitely not unique. This is true for travelers of all ages. I will drive a few hrs in order to take a non-stop rather than connecting whenever possible.

FYI, my comments about the # airlines flying out of NY vs PHL is a possible explanation of why PHL-SFO flights would be more expensive than the <$350 I routinely find from NY - less competition means higher prices.

I played around with your itinerary on www.usair.com and here's what I found.

For the 2pm USAir flight on some random dates between now and mid June I find the same lowest rate: $457.80 round trip.

Some days are higher (i.e. Fri departure), so if your dates are flexible then you can save $30-50.

My conclusion: There is no need to hurry to buy tickets - the same fare will be there even in Feb or March for June travel. The fare isn't likely to go up, but it appears it isn't likely to go down either.

Have you considered flying out of an airport that is closer to home? Or would the "couple of hours" drive be more comfortable than a short drive and short flight to a connecting city?

As of this morning, the rates on US Air from PHL-SFO are $452.80 including taxes per person. I picked two weekdays in mid-June.

We're 2 hrs from the closest airport (abt equidistant bet Phila and Baltimore).

Our dates (in order to meet up with family, etc) are June 20-28. We're trying to get flight 965 out, # 658 back. Fares are $490 now. I'll keep checking. (We can handle those fares though.)

Mucho thanks.

Philadelphia does not have a reputation for low priced flights, and it seems a lot of people complain about the efficiency of that airport, so you might want to broaden your search.

I don't know how easily you can get to the various airports, but you might want to look at the New York airports (including Newark) or Dulles near Washington, and at the three airports that serve the San Francisco area (San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose)

A quick glance showed a comparably priced flight from Dulles to San Francisco International, and some substantially cheaper flights, Newark to San Jose or to San Francisco International the cheapest.

I found this information on Travelocity; if you enter the city name, rather than the airport symbol, in their searcher, and check the box for nearby airports, they list the nearby airports and you can pick any three for each end of your flight, which I found convenient as I couldn't remember which airports were useful for San Francisco.

I also looked at Southwest, a discounter, and their one stop flight cost about $100 less than the flight you have found (but note that they do not release their fares more than about 3 months in advance) which makes me think the price you have found for a non-stop flight at a convenient time may be a good deal that you would want to lock in. Still, there are similarly convenient flights from other airports relatively close to you, so the possibility of your chosen flight selling out is not that great a risk.

Are you checking SFO only? Check also OAK - it's another airport in Oakland serving San Francisco with an easy connection by BART. The shuttles from OAK are however about $20 more expensive (one-way)

Check if Southwest has flights PHL-OAK.

I'm topping hoping to get more input.

The fares have stayed about the same. Wondering whether I should keep waiting to book this June trip (and risk losing that one flight that's best for us).

Thanks.

Normally, domestic tickets have their best prices 1 1/2-3 months before the flights so you are still a little early. Wait another month. I can't imagine the price going up any more between now and then.

Subscribe to Airfare Watchdog's weekly newsletter at www.airfarewatchdog. Use Philadelphia as your departure city. Each week you'll get an extensive list of low fares. Great site.

Just thought I'd post again, since it's been a while. Alas, fares have gone up since my earlier posts. Now, of course, I wish I'd booked rather than waiting for fares to go down.

Are you checking at airfarewatchdog.com on a regular basis? Here's a fare I found this morning. It's not ggod for your dates (it's good until 21 May), but there may be something similar in June.

Philadelphia, PA (PHL) to San Francisco, CA (SFO) $198 RT