Blackjack seminar- will I now win in Las Vegas?
#1
Original Poster
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 136
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Blackjack seminar- will I now win in Las Vegas?
A few friends and I just attended a high end seminar on Blackjack. They promised us that if we followed all the rules and procedures that we were taught we will win in Las Vegas!
I was thinking of investing $10,000 this time and hope to win at least $3000.00. Anyone else win in Vegas after learning to play winning blackjack at a class?
I was thinking of investing $10,000 this time and hope to win at least $3000.00. Anyone else win in Vegas after learning to play winning blackjack at a class?
#3
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 23,073
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Just in case you're serious in your post...
You can win in the long term by counting cards, which I assume is what you've learned. However, if a casino boss recognize you as a card-counter, then they can refuse to let you play. So, you need to be discrete, and probably move from casino to casino after winning some.
There are a few games you can beat the odds of the casinos. $1+ slot machines are one of them. But you need to bring a lot of money to play, and you need luck, if you're talking about ONE TRIP to Vegas. You can be up, you can be down. Who knows...
You can easily lose your ten grand in a few hours, and that's it. Do you have enough reserve and time to recover?
You can win in the long term by counting cards, which I assume is what you've learned. However, if a casino boss recognize you as a card-counter, then they can refuse to let you play. So, you need to be discrete, and probably move from casino to casino after winning some.
There are a few games you can beat the odds of the casinos. $1+ slot machines are one of them. But you need to bring a lot of money to play, and you need luck, if you're talking about ONE TRIP to Vegas. You can be up, you can be down. Who knows...
You can easily lose your ten grand in a few hours, and that's it. Do you have enough reserve and time to recover?
#6
Original Poster
Joined: Jul 2004
Posts: 136
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No, my math is fine. The seminar told us that we should expect to win about $3 for every $10 we invest. So if I invest $10,000 on the trip, I hope to leave with a profit of $3000.00 (So I will leave with $13,000.00)
We are leaving for Vegas on Thursday, I will report back to Fodors on my winnings!
We are leaving for Vegas on Thursday, I will report back to Fodors on my winnings!
#7
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,131
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So you paid (how much?) for the seminar and plan to invest $10,000 to get back 13,000? And what do they do for you if you lose all or part of the 10,000?
Put your money in the bank. That's the only place you're guaranteed a return on your investment.
Put your money in the bank. That's the only place you're guaranteed a return on your investment.
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#8
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 57,886
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Yes, everyone who takes that course can go to Vegas and come back with $13,000 for every $10,000 they bet. Haven't you noticed all the casinos going out of business because everyone is now leaving Vegas with more money than they came with?
#9
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 1,620
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Anything is possible....
However the odds are not with you. Playing perfect strategy reduces the house edge but there is still one. Make ONE mistake and you improve their odds quite a bit. I doubt that this class taught card counting, more likely basic strategy.
It takes practice, practice and more....well you get it. I think that I play good basic strategy and I have up and down sessions.
The odds are not with you but Good Luck and have a great time!
However the odds are not with you. Playing perfect strategy reduces the house edge but there is still one. Make ONE mistake and you improve their odds quite a bit. I doubt that this class taught card counting, more likely basic strategy.
It takes practice, practice and more....well you get it. I think that I play good basic strategy and I have up and down sessions.
The odds are not with you but Good Luck and have a great time!
#10
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 1,620
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Here is a quick quiz for you travdis:
You have been doing OK at the table, your betting is progressing to green chips. You are up $50-$100 or so in this session.
Dealer is showing a 10. You are delt a 5,6. Will you put up another green to double it?
Dealer is showing a 10. You are delt 8,8. Will you put up another green to split it and yet more to re-split or double if one of your 8's gets a 3 or another 8?
You have been doing OK at the table, your betting is progressing to green chips. You are up $50-$100 or so in this session.
Dealer is showing a 10. You are delt a 5,6. Will you put up another green to double it?
Dealer is showing a 10. You are delt 8,8. Will you put up another green to split it and yet more to re-split or double if one of your 8's gets a 3 or another 8?
#11
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 1,084
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Taking a course to learn basic strategy:
(a) doesn't improve your chances ot winning -- it just helps you lose less
(b) seems like a waste of time, since you can buy a pamphlet for a couple of bucks that explains basic strategy. In fact some casinos give them away.
(a) doesn't improve your chances ot winning -- it just helps you lose less
(b) seems like a waste of time, since you can buy a pamphlet for a couple of bucks that explains basic strategy. In fact some casinos give them away.
#12
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 1,084
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BTW (and I know something about this) there is no system in the world that can give you a guaranteed 30% return. First of all, you would have to know how many hours you're going to be in play before you have any realistic expectation of return. And the expectationis based on how much you bet, not the size of your bankroll.
Sounds like a scam to me.
Sounds like a scam to me.
#13
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 605
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travdis : The key word in your original message is "hope". Don't pin your finances on "hope". Once you're down from your sugar high - or whatever it is - please post another message and let us all know, truthfully, what your experience is.
The game is called 21, isn't it?
Also, are you planning to play against a single deck, or against a shoe?
Did they teach you anything about that in your high-falutin' class, honey?
The game is called 21, isn't it?
Also, are you planning to play against a single deck, or against a shoe?
Did they teach you anything about that in your high-falutin' class, honey?
#17
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 45,322
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feggeddaboutit, I absolutely agree with you. R/E for sure!!
And I can't complain (well I could but I won't) because my stockbroker as done a terric job for me.
But R/E oh yes, IMHO it is the best investment. At least for now, and in the past.
And I can't complain (well I could but I won't) because my stockbroker as done a terric job for me.
But R/E oh yes, IMHO it is the best investment. At least for now, and in the past.
#18
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 154
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You didn't pay for this seminar I hope!
If so, you got screwed. At best, a counter only has about a 1 to 2 percent edge. And its hard to pull that off these days, They will shuffle up on you at the first hint of counting. For sure on the strip.
Downtown you can sometimes pull it off, just have to be careful of your spread.
If so, you got screwed. At best, a counter only has about a 1 to 2 percent edge. And its hard to pull that off these days, They will shuffle up on you at the first hint of counting. For sure on the strip.
Downtown you can sometimes pull it off, just have to be careful of your spread.
#19
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 50
Likes: 0
Counting cards will only give you a 1 2 % edge over the house.
There are ways to win more by playing in teams (a recent book/ soon to be movie called "bringing down the house" talks about this) But you pretty much have to be a mathematicician. I really doubt any worthwhile skills are gonna be taught at a seminar.
I count cards in vegas whenever I go, ("counting" is a bit misleading, modern card counting is basically a hgih/low ratio that tells you when the hand is in your favor and when it isn't) dealers usually don't care if you're at 5 dollar or less tables.
old vegas tends to have the best single deck games without screwing you on blackjack payoffs or splitting rules.
Personally I think you're a bit better off teaming up with someone and playing texas hold em if you want to work the system.
There are ways to win more by playing in teams (a recent book/ soon to be movie called "bringing down the house" talks about this) But you pretty much have to be a mathematicician. I really doubt any worthwhile skills are gonna be taught at a seminar.
I count cards in vegas whenever I go, ("counting" is a bit misleading, modern card counting is basically a hgih/low ratio that tells you when the hand is in your favor and when it isn't) dealers usually don't care if you're at 5 dollar or less tables.
old vegas tends to have the best single deck games without screwing you on blackjack payoffs or splitting rules.
Personally I think you're a bit better off teaming up with someone and playing texas hold em if you want to work the system.
#20
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 110
Likes: 0
Although I no longer enjoy it, I spent far too many weekends at 21 tables in my youth. As a mathematician and very experienced gambler I can offer you the following words. 1) Actually implementing the "rules and procedures" that you were taught is a lot of hard work, and you need to be extremely disciplined to be successful. 2) The discipline required takes most of the fun out of it. 3) If money is really important to you, don't even try. 4) In the end, much of it comes down to "luck".
If you really want to test your "rules and procedures" -- play 5 one-hour sessions with your friends for fun; rotate the dealer and play normal Vegas rules, BUT have the dealer's normal hole card dealt FACE UP. Apply your "rules and procedures" but allow any variation to your normal hits or stays that you want based on seeing the dealer's hole card. Whatever your winnings are in this game is significantly more that your expectation in Vegas; and unless you are very lucky -- the winnings won't justify the work.
If you really want to test your "rules and procedures" -- play 5 one-hour sessions with your friends for fun; rotate the dealer and play normal Vegas rules, BUT have the dealer's normal hole card dealt FACE UP. Apply your "rules and procedures" but allow any variation to your normal hits or stays that you want based on seeing the dealer's hole card. Whatever your winnings are in this game is significantly more that your expectation in Vegas; and unless you are very lucky -- the winnings won't justify the work.

