Steffen

I know that this question has been discussed on this forum before, but here goes:
The prevailing wisdom states that after the first of the year consolidator fares and regular carrier discounts will be briefly available for summer fares.

Also, the Delta fare shakeup seems to have only affected domestic fares.

Now that it is the 9th of January, I am not seeing any dip at all in airfares (I am looking at flying into CDG in July from the Midwest) and even Hotwire is stating that all discount fares are "sold out".

Does this mean that the $1000 or so round trip fare is as good as it going to get or do Fodorites foresee another dip if I wait just a bit longer?

I am trying all the usual suspects (Expedia ect. as well as ITA and newcomers Kayak, Sidestep, and Mobissimo and it just does not seem to be coming down.

Any advice would be welcome!

Gardyloo

The Delta-led, sheep-follow fare cuts are all domestic US-oriented.

Some US carriers, AA in particular, are rapidly trying to ramp up their overseas services for the coming summer, so there is a chance, however small, that surplus capacity may develop. OTOH, the dollar's present extended stay in the ICU means millions of European folk, pockets full of high-value €s and £s will fill those empty seats and then some. Combine that with the airlines' need to offset losses in domestic services or bankruptcy settlements, or DVT lawsuits (More Lawyers in Coach - I can see the marketing spin now...) and I can't see how bargains for US currency-wielding pax will be thick in the air. I could be wrong, though. Maybe peace will break out in the middle east and the price of oil will fall and the pilots and FAs will let the USAir suits make payments on their boats.... yeah, it could happen...

You don't say where from/to for sub-$1000 fares. There are plenty of them out there, just not to some markets such as Italy. I would look to cheap gateways like DUB and combine LCCs for the rest of the trip. Pack light, or the baggage surcharges will bite you where you sit. Tightly packed.

Gardyloo

Sorry, you did say CDG. Try London plus Eurostar.

bobthenavigator

Discounters get their inventory of unsold seats often 120 days out. I would get nervous in April, but keep watching for sales in the meantime.

ira

Hi S,

As Bob says, it is early yet.

rex

I'd give an &quot;upsideownside&quot; rating of 70% -200$, 30% +100$ for the next 30-40 days on a July airfare, midwest US to Paris. As with all other &quot;analyses&quot; like this that I have given before, this is strictly a <u>guess</u> on my part, but it is based on some experience with trends<i><b>in the past</b></i>, which is <b>no</b> guarantee about the <i>future</i>.

A lot depends on whether there are special requirements you are trying to fulfill: MUST travel (both ways) on a very specific date? weekend? number of seats together? airline? routing?

Personally, I would hold out. I might even give the same advice if it were <i>February</i> ninth.

Best wishes,

Rex

Steffen

I am limiting myself to certain discounts because I am flying from Milwaukee (not O'Hare) to CDG on specific dates (due to child care arrangements).

I did not quite understand Rex's comment (possibly due to spacing issues with my browser. Would Rex be so kind as to repeat his post?

How would the US to London to Paris (Eurostar) route work?

Thank you

Christina

I think Rex was saying that his guess would be a 70 pct chance it might go down and a 30 pct chance it would go up in the next 30-40 days.

I've gone to Paris several times in July, which is the peak airfare period, but I never book this early, even though I like to get my reservations made. I just wouldn't worry about it now. Hotwire isn't good information for normal airfares, I wouldn't pay any attention to them. I think that either means they just don't have any deals for your route in peak season, or whatever they had is gone already (I would think they might not have had much, if any), but that doesn't mean anything for buying tickets another way.

I have never heard of your conventional wisdom on summer discounts for a few days after the first of the year, and haven't ever noticed that myself. I don't know consolidator patterns, though. Airplanes have been pretty booked going to Europe in July the last few years -- the main deals I've seen have been on some US carriers in bankruptcy.

Gardyloo

<i>How would the US to London to Paris (Eurostar) route work?</i>

Often flights from the US to London are significantly cheaper than those to France or Italy because there is much more competition - many more flights by more carriers. While it may take an extra day (and therefore should be considered in view of additional hotel costs, etc.) you might investigate flying into London, then taking the train to Paris, rather than looking for a direct flight to CDG. Gatwick airport is especially convenient to the rail line, you'd avoid CDG (always a good thing) and the combined cost of the airfare and the train fare might be less than the flights to Paris alone. Worth looking into, anyway.

The other option is to fly into Manchester or Dublin then use Ryanair or Easyjet (again, separate tickets) for the final couple hundred miles. Dublin especially can be reached in July from ORD for around $700 RT; the Ryanair add-on will be quite cheap. Or split the difference, use an &quot;LCC&quot; from, say Dublin, to Paris, then fly back home from CDG, using an &quot;openjaw&quot; ticket that will still be cheaper than the full RT to CDG.

You do indeed have time to explore your options - I'd recommend exploring all of them.

rex

Christina has it essentially correct. If tne passengers are looking <i><b>today</b></i> at a given fare for a given destination/date range, then an &quot;upside/downside forecast&quot; goes something like this:

xx % chance that you will find a lower fare by $xxx in the next zz days (that's the &quot;upside&quot; of not buying today)

yy% chance that no lower fares have occurred in zz days, and to make matters worse, the lowest fare you can find <i>then</i> is $yyy higher - - tht's the downside of not buying today.

I tend not to quote the &quot;neutral&quot; probability - -the chance that zz days from today, you can find the same fare (i.e., no higher than today). In this case, I am implying that this is close to 100% by saying that I would give a similar forecast, even 30 days from now.

But, please, <i>please</i> do <b>not</b> think that this <i>opinion</i> of mine has any real meaningful mathematical accuracy. It's my best guess, and the numbers are meant to convey the degree of confidence I have in likely fare fluctuations.

ira

Hi Steffen,

I suggest that you check www.mobissimo.com each morning and each evening for flights to CDG and LHR and LGW.

rex

One additional thought about the posting by Gardyloo on going to France my way of the British Isles. This will only rarely ave &quot;true&quot; money - - but if you actually would like to trade one or two days of your other destinations for a visit to England or Ireland - - then it's like a &quot;free&quot; stopover, in many cases. Since it's almost always involving different airlines and different airports, it works best to NOT schedule the onward travel on the same day(s) - - i.e., best, if you would actually enjoy overnighting at the connection destination.

I think this can work quite effectively for some first-time Europe travelers, by thew way - - get over your trans-atlantic sleep-deprived first-day fatigue in a country where they speak English...

ira

Hi all,

I think that you will get a kick out of this.

I'm planning to go to France from ATL. Into Bordeaux and out of Paris.

The open-jaw flight is (at this time) $729.

I looked up ATL/CDG RT (I can then train to Paris) and found a fare of $710 nonstop on AF.

I followed Rex's suggestion to go to London and take the Eurostar to Paris.

I found this:
Air France ATL to CDG to LHR for $595 on the very same planes that that cost $710 if I don't go to London.

Go figure.

Intrepid1

As an example: there's a slightly less than $1800 fare out there for R/T FIRST CLASS from the East Coast to Paris on Continental for dates in July...it doesn't even come up on the engines like Expedia..it DOES come up on aggregator sites like Mobissimo.

I would check every site including Mobissimo, Farechase, Kayak, Quixo, etc.

I was not aware of there being any hard and fast rule about &quot;discounters getting their fares 120 days out&quot; so I cannot comment on that.

rex

note to ira... it was Gardyloo's suggestion

bardo1

ira,
What is the return route to Atlanta on that $595 fare? Also, If you don't take that last leg when arriving (CDG to LHR), then won't you be in BIG TROUBLE on your return?