I will be booking a flight DFW-MUC June 3, return CDG-DFW July 3. Currently AA has this flight (economy) listed at $1216. Is this a good fare? Do you think the fare will come down later this month? I need to book in January and can't wait until closer to departure. Thanks for any input.

It might help if we understood more about why you must book in January. You also do not say what kind of match are these flights for your expectations? Dates "just right"? Times to your liking? And how many tickets (how many passengers) are involved in this purchase? I assume that both are nonstop flights.

I do not think the fare will drop in the month of January. I think there is a 20% chance of saving $150 or more per passenger over the next NINETY days if you watch diligently. I would also predict a 75% chance that this fare will still be available ninety days from now (i.e., a 25% chance that you might be forced to pay more if you wait to the first week of April).

Of course, my "percentages" should not be taken as actual "statistical probabilities". They are just my guesses.

Best wishes,

Rex

Thanks, Rex. I don't "have to" book in January, but it would suit me to get details settled early so I can concentrate on other projects. The flight over incurs a change at LHR and the flight back from CDG is non-stop. These schedules and times are a good fit -- in fact I've flown this route before. There are two of us flying together, one on Aadvantage miles, the other purchasing a ticket, so I need to fly AA. In the past I've been able to purchase this, or a similar, ticket for under $1000. I know fares are up, but I wondered if the $1216 is "about right" or if I should wait a while. Today's prices indicate that there is only one lower fare on another airline on and around these dates and it incurs an additional stop. I may watch for a few weeks, but I can't wait ninety days. Thanks again for your input. K

Hello Letsflycheaper -- Yes, the price is inclusive.

I think that fare is typical for such a route in peak season. I don't think it is "good", but I don't think it is bad, either, just typical. I don't think it is going to go up by end of this month, so personally don't see a big rush to book it. I don't think it will necessarily go down, either, but I wouldn't worry about it going up. I do think it is "about right", though.

Here is an old airfare trick that still sometimes works. Not always, but sometimes...

Check your prices on Tuesday and/or Wednesday nights, after 10 pm Eastern time up until about 1am. From what I understand, this is when many airlines do system updates and there will be windows of opportunities at these times.

I have often played this game, checked a price on Monday, but on Tuesday night it is substantially lower, then back up again on Wednesday morning. Never buy on a weekend - Friday night through Monday evening, or on a holiday.

Thanks, Christina and daveesl

t

Hi crckwc1,

I have to agree with "daveesl" on this "airfare trick". This has actually worked for us 6 times in the last 8 years. We didn't find the price we eventually bought every Tue. night, but found prices to be lower then and we wound up buying our tickets on a Tue. night everytime. Last time (for Sept. '09) we bought them in May just before midnight on a Tue. We wound up with a $462 pp r/t non-stop airfare NJ to Munich.

I'm going to try the Tuesday night trick next week. Thanks for the tip.

I've found that airfare sales are just now going through May - if I were you, I'd set up some fare-alerts and watch it for a little while.

<< There are two of us flying together, one on Aadvantage miles, the other purchasing a ticket, so I need to fly AA. >>

This by far and away the most important fact. You need to get on the phone and try to lock in both seats simultaneously. Saving $100 or $200 on the paid seat gets you nowhere if you cannot get the award seat.

Fare alerts - which are the best sites that offer them?

Thanks very much,
Alice