noe847

We will be in London for 6 nights in early March. I know what the average weather is for that time, and am expecting plenty of chilly, rainy weather. Our itinerary will be flexible so that we can substitute activities in case we happen to have some weather that is more pleasant. What I'm wondering is if the forecasts that we will get in London are reliable for planning a day or two in advance. When we traveled in Scotland we were told that none of the weather people could really forecast the Scottish weather except one BBC meteorologist.

Tallulah

How accurate are weather reports anywhere????

CotswoldScouser

Who was that wild Celtic optimist? "One accurate forecaster" is 100% inaccurate.

If this answer doesn't sound too Irish, it depends what you mean by accurate. If they say it'll freeze all day, it probably won't get over 60 (in real money). On the other hand, it may or may not actually freeze, and it may or may not last all day.

"Directionally correct" was the term we used to use when I worked for Global Megacorp plc. It meant a (in that case financial, in this case weather) forecast certainly wouldn't be 100% right, but probably wouldn't be very wrong.

If that's clear, I've oversimplified.

janisj

The forecasts will be fairly accurate -- for <u>somewhere</u> in Greater London.

If they say rain -- it might rain in Chelsea all day, might shower in Marylebone for a couple of hours, and might be dry as a bone in Southwark.

In other words, just be prepared for the general weather type but don't expect it to be exact. (And if you have a small umbrella and dress in alyers you are pretty much ready for anything.)

janisj

Tallulah&quot; &quot;<i>How accurate are weather reports anywhere????</i>&quot;

There's the rub - where I live the weather forecasters practically steal money when they pick up their pay checks. For about 10 months of the year they will be accurate w/i 1 degree F. And precip forecasts will be about 99.99% correct.

nytraveler

How far in advance? If you're looking at the morning weather on TV it will probably be pretty good. If you're asking about two weeks out - there's probably be a 40/50/% chance of their being right.

noe847

My question was for a day or two.

wasleys

Weather <u>reports</u> will be very accurate. Accuracy of weather <u>forecasts</u> is a different matter!

A lot will depend on how local the forecast is and how much detail is given in it. The actual weather systems being experienced can also make accurate forecasting more/less likely.

In addition to radio/TV forecasts check out teletext local forecasts on P402 on BBC1/2 or P152 on ITV.

Will you have internet access? If so post back and I will suggest some URLs.

noe847

Wasleys, you are so right about the distinction between reports and forecasts

We very well might have internet, so I will appreciate the links.

We had London weather today here in Atlanta (actually fairly common for us to have cold rain in the winter months), so I got to do a &quot;wet run&quot; (can't very well call it a &quot;dry run&quot;!) today and realized the jacket I was going to bring isn't warm enough. I have now revised my packing strategy: wool coat and umbrella rather than fleece and shell.

wasleys

noe847,

Here goes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/index.shtml BBC forecast - should default to London

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/ Click rain, cloud etc for detail by time.

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/uk.html Click on region required for local forecast

http://theyr.net/cg/cny/I1aab29/F=js...EN*engl_London

(NOTE you will need to copy/paste all the above line - it doesn't show fully as a link here)

I like theyr.net even if it is a little unintuitive. Choose type of forecast by symbols top left, top right will let you run sequence. Click on graphs at time required and map will change to that time

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/03779.html

England in March? Anything from sunny spring days to blizzards!

Enjoy your trip.

Michael

noe847

thanks for the info. I'll plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Zeus

I'd assume the coins they flip are two-sided just like ours.

djkbooks

Well, for our three visits to London, the ten-day forecasts on the web were somewhat helpful for finalizing our packing, but we knew to plan for warmer or cooler anyway.

The concierge at our hotel advised us to watch &quot;breakfast TV&quot; for the forecast (though most days we planned to venture out sooner).

Actually, the forecasts on the bus videos were somewhat accurate the evening prior - still planning for warmer or cooler or more or less precip.

Though, one night rain was forecast all day the next, but not a drop. And, another &quot;intermitent showers&quot;, yet it poured heavily all day long.

grsing

From my experience here for the past month or so, the weather reports are only marginally better than guesses (particularly with reference to rain; they're usually not too far off with the temperature, but I think they just predict rain almost every day and you just feel lucky if it doesn't come).

PatrickLondon

Oh come on, London has been getting drier and drier. We had some persistent cold rain yesterday, but it's been quite rare this winter, and the reservoirs are worringly low. Of course, that might mean it'll rain non-stop from now till next winter. Or it might not.

noe847

What it means, Patrick, is that it will rain nonstop for my entire trip!

grsing

Patrick: the dryness is really what I meant; they predict rain almost every day, but I haven't gotten rained on more than a handful of times. But &quot;be prepared&quot; is definitely the motto to pack by, and then just look at the weather when you're there, and judge how willing you are to get a little wet.

Barbara_in_CT

Plan for the worst and you won't be disappointed. Getting wet isn't the end of the world. Your clothing will dry and you will eventually warm up. Great excuse to stop for a spot of tea and a sweet.