Euro dropping vs $
Aug 7th, 2008, 09:35 PM
#22
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<i>I'm with logos, that's why I'm spending all my travel dollars NOW before it becomes worthless.</i>
I would suggest hitching my wagon to someone that actually knows something about economics and the currency markets. He can call it keeping it simple all he wants, but that ain't for our benefit, it is simply because he doesn't have any credible theoretical basis for his prognostications.
My favorite was when he finally offered some "evidence" and it was..... a chart of currency movements! Fantastic logic! The dollar dropped year x, so it will surely drop in year y.
Reminded me of all of the day-traders back in the glory days of the internet bubble. They all had their system and they were all "experts" because they made money. Well, right now, every European is an "expert" it seems. We'll forget the thorny issue of burgeoning implied debts caused by aging populations and the promises made to them. We'll also forget that a strong Euro is not really in the interest of Germany and France, as they are more industrial countries than traditional strong-currency regimes, like Great Britain.
I would suggest hitching my wagon to someone that actually knows something about economics and the currency markets. He can call it keeping it simple all he wants, but that ain't for our benefit, it is simply because he doesn't have any credible theoretical basis for his prognostications.
My favorite was when he finally offered some "evidence" and it was..... a chart of currency movements! Fantastic logic! The dollar dropped year x, so it will surely drop in year y.
Reminded me of all of the day-traders back in the glory days of the internet bubble. They all had their system and they were all "experts" because they made money. Well, right now, every European is an "expert" it seems. We'll forget the thorny issue of burgeoning implied debts caused by aging populations and the promises made to them. We'll also forget that a strong Euro is not really in the interest of Germany and France, as they are more industrial countries than traditional strong-currency regimes, like Great Britain.
Aug 7th, 2008, 11:03 PM
#24
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<<I would suggest hitching my wagon to someone that actually knows something about economics and the currency markets.>>
Hmmm...I figure I'd better buy my bratwurst NOW before the price doubles up in dollars next year! <
Hmmm...I figure I'd better buy my bratwurst NOW before the price doubles up in dollars next year! <
Aug 7th, 2008, 11:09 PM
#25
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<i>After all it's only another 165 days until the moron who destroyed the economy is out of office.</i>
And, FWIW, the dollar has historically rebounded after a presidential election. The conventional wisdom is that there is an uncertainty discount in the months leading up to the election. I think it has a bit more to do with the fact that every new president promises tighter fiscal control than their predecessor, but either logic might explain the bump.
And, FWIW, the dollar has historically rebounded after a presidential election. The conventional wisdom is that there is an uncertainty discount in the months leading up to the election. I think it has a bit more to do with the fact that every new president promises tighter fiscal control than their predecessor, but either logic might explain the bump.
Aug 8th, 2008, 03:01 AM
#26
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I have been watching this situation in Australia, where I am currently finishing up my 35th home exchange (I go to my 36th home exchange--also in Australia--tomorrow so I won't be home any time soon).
The US dollar is also doing better vis a vis the Australia dollar. I thought I saw the dollar at $1.51 euro. I don't expect the dollar to reach parity with the euro (remember those days?) again due to the huge debts America is running as a result of the Bush Administration's financing of the War in Iraq through loans from the Chinese rather than asking Americans to pay more taxes. That, combined with the fact that developed countries manufacture very little, is going to result in stronger currencies in places like China and India long term and weaker currencies in the developed world. How the dollar and euro will fare against each other is anyone's guess, but Europe manufactures almost nothing these days too.
The US dollar is also doing better vis a vis the Australia dollar. I thought I saw the dollar at $1.51 euro. I don't expect the dollar to reach parity with the euro (remember those days?) again due to the huge debts America is running as a result of the Bush Administration's financing of the War in Iraq through loans from the Chinese rather than asking Americans to pay more taxes. That, combined with the fact that developed countries manufacture very little, is going to result in stronger currencies in places like China and India long term and weaker currencies in the developed world. How the dollar and euro will fare against each other is anyone's guess, but Europe manufactures almost nothing these days too.
Aug 8th, 2008, 09:19 AM
#33
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dmlove: The dollar had already rebounded a bit against Sterling. Sterling reached a peak in February, and is now well off that. Currently, the rates are similar to where they were near the beginning of last year. Nonetheless, even if the dollar were to gain 25%, London will still be expensive.
The dollar has actually slipped a bit against the Egyptian Pound, but I think you will still find it pretty cheap.
The dollar has actually slipped a bit against the Egyptian Pound, but I think you will still find it pretty cheap.
Aug 8th, 2008, 09:25 AM
#34
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Honestly, I was just curious. We've already paid for our flights and hotels, so it's just our daily expenses (meals, sightseeing and metro/taxis) anyway. While it will be nice to save a few hundred dollars (overall, I think that'll be the difference), it won't make much of a dent in the cost of the trip!
Aug 8th, 2008, 11:54 AM
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Thats good - but just checking into exchanging money before we leave and no matter how we work it we will be paying an additional 6% pushing it to 1.60.
Guess the ATMs are the only way to go. Have to call the bank and see if they charge exchange rates on ATM withdrawals. Everyone wants your money!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guess the ATMs are the only way to go. Have to call the bank and see if they charge exchange rates on ATM withdrawals. Everyone wants your money!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Aug 8th, 2008, 12:06 PM
#38
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Josh for the good old days when it cost 90 cents US to get one Euro. Then God forbid it went to $1.20 and I thought our traveling days were over.
Here is it at $1.50 and we think we are looking good and planning to leave in 6 weeks again.
Still hoping it goes lower.
But American is talking about whether they have to help the Georgians fight the Russians. Oh boy, here we go again.
Here is it at $1.50 and we think we are looking good and planning to leave in 6 weeks again.
Still hoping it goes lower.
But American is talking about whether they have to help the Georgians fight the Russians. Oh boy, here we go again.
Aug 8th, 2008, 09:21 PM
#39
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America is talking ?
Who is America?
The Russians are attacking
Georgia because there is access to the Caspian Sea, under which is the largest pool of oil yet untapped - the same reason the moron and darth vader want to attack Iran which also has entre to the Caspian....what is it ever over but OIL.
I wish they'd hurry up with the alternatives - for instance Florida is perfect for sugar cane growing - making gasoline and other usablr energy like Brazil - but is anybody pushing it or putting bills through Congress to help support such a move? No. Why - cause big AG is growing corn for ethanol which is even more expensive than gasoline....and has caused the price of food to go up - everything we eat has corn syrup in it, the feed for animals has corn in it, and so on and so on. These lobbies which have taken over congress and even write the bills...or maybe I should rephrase - congress on the take- have destroyed this economy and the country.
Rant over.
Who is America?
The Russians are attacking
Georgia because there is access to the Caspian Sea, under which is the largest pool of oil yet untapped - the same reason the moron and darth vader want to attack Iran which also has entre to the Caspian....what is it ever over but OIL.
I wish they'd hurry up with the alternatives - for instance Florida is perfect for sugar cane growing - making gasoline and other usablr energy like Brazil - but is anybody pushing it or putting bills through Congress to help support such a move? No. Why - cause big AG is growing corn for ethanol which is even more expensive than gasoline....and has caused the price of food to go up - everything we eat has corn syrup in it, the feed for animals has corn in it, and so on and so on. These lobbies which have taken over congress and even write the bills...or maybe I should rephrase - congress on the take- have destroyed this economy and the country.
Rant over.
Aug 9th, 2008, 06:29 AM
#40
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Right now - as usual - it is the media talking about American interests in Georgia.
If it is about oil - why the h are we paying over $4 a gallon for gas?
If America is going to war over oil, why aren't we flooded with oil rather than Iraq sitting with billions of dollars now from their oil.
If it is about oil - why the h are we paying over $4 a gallon for gas?
If America is going to war over oil, why aren't we flooded with oil rather than Iraq sitting with billions of dollars now from their oil.
