If you can lay your hands on today's (Aug 12) edition of the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> there's an interesting article on how RCCL and Carnival are leaning on the discount cruise agencies (cruisequick.com and one other mentioned by name) to keep them from passing on part of their commissions to the customers, thereby undercutting the other agents who keep the full 18%. Evidently the days of discount cruising are numbered.

The advancing monopolies in the cruise business are going to put the industry right in the same bankruptcy courtrooms previously occupied by United, TWA, US Air and others. Oceania is not Southwest, but surely some cruiseline entrepreneur is going to take a page out of Jet Blue's playbook one of these days.

It won't be Oceania.

Actually, I think that's Oceania's business plan in a way. Except they're cherry picking rather than bottom feeding. The monopolies have got the market so segmented (Carnival owning Cunard, say) that they're trying to play every niche. Unfortunately the pax are getting pretty sophisticated about travel in general (thanks, Priceline and Orbitz) so the muscle-bound big corporations are going to do something that alienates whole segments of the public so that they'll look for some non-monopoly alternative rather than riding on Celebrity/Royal Caribbean or Carnival/Costa/Cunard etc. There will be high-end indies like Oceania, low-enders like some of the cheap Euro lines, all sorts, while Carnival will be fee-fi-fo-fumming around bashing upstart e-bookers.

One of the Carnival suits interviewed in the article says they don't want cruising to become &quot;commodified&quot; (I guess that's a word.) Beg pardon? With umpteen labels and umpteen thousand beds and umpteen thousand and seven fare/excursion/add-on/blahblah packages? Not become a commodity? What the h*ll do you think you are now, buddy?

I guess as the economy starts to recover? (or at least people are traveling again) the cruise lines are going to start cashing in. We'll just have to see what happens, if the market can bear it or not.

Although I have not cruised on Oceania YET...they certainly aren't in the same market at RCCL, Carnival or NCL.. They have older ships which hold under 1000 each, their itineraries are much different than the other lines and they appear to be more upscale. Daily I receive notices regarding bargains on Oceania and I'm just waiting for the right one...they definetely are a cut above the mass marketed lines..FYI RCCL I've read has bookings way ahead of previous years..

Respectfully parrotmom

If you have never been on Oceania
curious &quot;they definetely are a cut above the mass marketed lines.&quot; I spent two weeks on the Regatta. Read some of the reviews. It is not all that it is cracked up to be.

Manycruiser's experience on Oceania apparently stands in some contrast to others', including ours. Beautiful hotel that moves. The rest of it is subjective.

Discounting is far from dead. The official announcements ban &quot;advertising&quot; rates other than retail--not charging them. This means you'll have to ask for a quote to get the best deal.

RCL it seems has privately told agents (not in writing, though) that they can't discount at all. However, as this would be blatently illegal (a violation of anti-trust laws) it's unlikely they will attempt to enforce it.

What we'll end up with is a system where any price you see online will be a retail price, and you'll have to ask for a quote to get the real deal.

Great! - first step in eliminating the travel agents, who, in my opinion bring nothing to the transaction. Cruises will be booked like airfare is - simple and paninless.

Peter

Peter:

While I understand your premise, I think you're missing the bigger picture.

Yes, as an the experienced cruiser who can do your own research, you just need a low price from a travel agent.

Neophytes, by contrast, need advice and guidance from agents willing to spend the time educating them.

The existence of travel agencies willing to handle one or the other of these markets (i.e., discount, minimal-service agencies for experienced cruisers; full-price, full-research agencies for neophytes) gives choices to the marketplace--and lets you cruise for less money.

If these agents go away, so will your choices. Then EVERYBODY will be paying full-price whether they need a consultive agent or just an order-taker.

Eliminating agents--which probably will happen sometime in the distant future--would be a a bad deal for the consumer...

Anyone that books direct from the cruise line is generally paying deveral hundred dollard more than they have to. For instance, the cruise line advertised my upcoming sailing for $1000 more PER PERSON than the online agent I booked through. Out of my 5 cruises online discounters have been $200+ cheaper per person.

Trianthlete - I think you're missing the point. I predict a day in the not so distant future where you'll go to orbitz or expedia or some new travel site and key in an itinerary, a sailing date and the type of cabin and back will come Carnival $1200, Princess $1499, Celebrity $1530, RCCL $1650 and you'll then decide based on service, food, entertainment, etc. That would be pure competition - just like it is today with airlines. As travelers make their choice, the cruise lines would have to make adjustments to get business: price or product - just like every other business has to.

Nowhere in that scenario is there a place or need for a travel agent.

Peter

Many elders cruise that do not have access to the internet. There will always be a need for cruise travel agents. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that travel agents book the majority of cruises Didn't cruise lines try to cut out travel agents several years ago and it failed miserably? We'll just have to see...... From what I understand on other cruise boards ta's are still allowed to discount they just can't advertise it.

Well today's middle-aged internet-savvy folks are tomorrow's internet-savvy elders. My 86 yo dad has gone from know-nothing to pretty skilled in record time (remember elders often have time on their hands.) Most people used TAs for air travel until the advent of 800 numbers, too. The specialty TAs I see nowadays are those for niche travel and bi- or multi-lingual agencies who work with immigrant communities, for whom the language barrier exists on the web, too.

IMO the democratization of travel is a one-way march; there will be less need for priesthoods in the future.

According to the Actuaries in the maritime insurance industry, the very highest (terrorist) risk at this time is large cruise ships - check the premiums if you doubt that statement!
M

What do you want us to do Mikemo, stop living? Guess you haven't been to New York recently......Yes, I definitely want to spend every day of my life living in fear-not! BTW, they have been saying that about cruise ships since 911, so I guess those millions of passengers for the past few years (myself included)should have just shriveled up and gave up on leaving their homes forever......

Senior citizens a few year ago were the fastest growing population of people buying computers.. Just check out the senior centers with the waiting lists. Okay, so I'm a senior and I've had a home computer for over 8 years...I don't play games on the computer, but use it for travel information, and to keep in touch with scattered family, friends and fellow collectors. I do all my own research on destinations and then call my travel agent...and i own a digital camera I'm fast learning about...going to be posting our visit to Fenway shortly..lol