Which do you think is our better bet as far as weather? I am thinking oct will be warmer but probably rainier.

Honestly there's not much difference. Average daytime temps:
October - 82 degrees F.
November - 80 degrees F.
Average Rainfall:
October - 3.0 inches
November - 3.7 inches
Average number of rain days (remember this means days when there was some rain during a given 24 hour period and not necessarilly a day in which it rained all day):
October - 6.3 days
November - 6.2 days

Go to www.weatherbase.com for historical weather information.

October is still very much hurricane season. If I were making advance reservations, I'd absolutely shoot for late November.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. While peak storm season is usually Sept 1 through Oct 15, the past two seasons have shown that there can be many major storms both early and late in the season (this year Tropical Storm Zeta formed on December 30). There's no way to accurately predict this far in advance when, where or if a storm will hit.

Anything's possible, but statistically you're more likely to get hurricanes in Oct. than Nov.

We were in Provo in early December and thought the water was just warm enough - so I think Nov. would be fine. And we like it warm!