Predicting Weather

Aug 5th, 2002, 05:12 AM
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Predicting Weather

How far in advance can hurricane's and other strong storm systems be accurately predicted?
Aug 5th, 2002, 05:35 AM
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see: and
Gotta go now, my steak, eggs, pancakes and bacon are ready.
Aug 5th, 2002, 05:54 AM
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Acurate prediction within 24 hours. Hurricanes have a mind of their own and weather conditions can change in a matter of minutes. Remember that hurricane 2 years ago that caused mass evacuations in Florida's history and even shutdown Disney World for the first time in history. Only to have the hurricane miss the entire state of Florida at the last minute and it headed for the Carolinas.

Other hurricanes that have made surprizing landfalls

Hurricane Camile
Hurricane Hazel
Hurricane Hugo
Hurricane Gilbert
Hurricane Donna

Hurricane Lenny (this hurricane formed in the Western Caribbean in late November of 1999 and moved East towards the islands instead of the general Western path) Hurricane Lenny has impacted the entire Caribbean, even Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao received severe beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Bret (Killed hundreds in Caracas, Venezuela after changing path in the last few hours from North West to South West heading straight for major cities in Venezuela).

Tropical Storm Allison (Made a suprising landfall in Houston Texas in 2001 causing massive flooding in the city and a few deaths).

In addition many people under estimate the power of a hurricane. Some hurricanes may appear small but are destructive while others may appear big on the satelite but are less destructive.

Many people under estimated the strenght of Hurricane Andrew, it appeared very small on the satelite but Andrew was a killer.

The same goes for tropical storms, people think tropical storms are not that bad but Allison brought 24 inches of rain to Houston metro area in 2 days causing massive flooding and killing a few people in the summer of 2001.

Another thing hurricanes can form rapidly. Andrew became a strong hurricane in just 12 hours. Today you see Tropical Storm Bertha heading for New Orleans while on Friday the weather in the Golf was perfect.
Aug 5th, 2002, 06:12 AM
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In other cannot predict the unpredictable!!
Aug 5th, 2002, 06:18 AM
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Sorry....that web site is, I did not spell it correctly on the previous post
Aug 5th, 2002, 07:28 AM
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Being that I live on the Southeastern Coast of the US and have evacuated for many storms, I must say that you cannot accuratly predict a storms landfall within 24 hours. You can give an approximation (250 mile radius) but can never say exactly where they will go as they are known to change direction.

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