hhlist

I am planning a honeymoon to STJ. Does anyone know if the USBVI tend to be in the path of early season tropical waves or hurricanes.

Thanks

JeanH

The past two years have been so horrific, hurricane wise, that I'm not sure historical models are going to be much help. Grenada was supposed to mostly out of the 'hurricane belt' and was devastated by Ivan two years ago. Florida had four major hurricanes that same year, and that certainly isn't normal. Last year certainly wasn't typical either, I think even Aruba had hurricane warnings at one point.

I normally am not a user of trip insurance, but if I decide to travel to the Caribbean during hurricane season this year, I'll be buying some.

virginia

congratulations, i'm sorry but this question is impossible to answer. unfortunately what happens one year or over a period of many years is not an indicator of what will come next year.
plan your trip. buy trip insurance. chances are quite good that you will have hot, perfect weather.
are you thinking villa, resort or camping? if you type stj into the search box above you should find tons of advice on accomodations, best beaches & dining. at caneel ppl will even suggest what room you should ask for...

xkenx

A hurricane in July, particularly the first half of the month, would be incredibly unlikely. The ocean to the east of the Virgin Islands has not yet warmed up enough to support a hurricane. The Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean are a bit more susceptible. You are likely to see more rain than in the Dec. to April drier season, but the rain usually comes in brief showers. Enjoy! If you are going to be nervous, take out trip insurance to hedge your bets.

caribtraveler

Virginia is correct. It's impossible to answer because it's impossible to predict hurricanes and their paths. I have a friend who works at a weather channel and I recently asked him whether we'll get as a bad of a season as last year's (we're planning 2 trips during the hurricane season). He said the upcoming hurricane season is predicted to be as busy as last year's. The real questions that are impossible to answer: When will the storms hit? If they hit land, which islands/countries will they hit? How strong/devastating will they be? Tropical storms or hurricanes? So yes, looking at past patterns doesn't mean a thing.
One thing I'll add about the term "outside of the hurricane belt". Someone on this site said once that there was no such thing. I didn't believe him so I asked someone else I know who works at the National Hurricane Center and he told me that the Fodorite was correct, that it's true some islands get substantially less storms than others (like Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao) but the so-called term "outside the hurricane belt" was probably made up by the media to explain why some islands didn't get hit as often as others and the tourism industry and everyone else picked that up. Interesting, don't you think?

A_Traveller

One thing you have to consider is major stoms are more prevallent when the waters east of the islands are at their warmest. While that usually occurs in September and October the past few winters (including this current one) have been relatively mild and that's one reason why there's be major tropical storms. Genenal predictions are 2006 will be another "above average" year as far as storms go. July is usually storm free but as last year proved that's not always the case.

Annabel

The waters this past year have been above normal temps and have not cooled down to the normal range...which is most likely why there was a hurricane in December. The waters are still above normal temperature...which means as the days are becoming longer, the sun isshining longer, which warms up the water. If you remember last season was the first time in history every name was used and also had to add 4 names from the Greek alphabet. Hurricanes are so unpredictable, but we do know 2 major componets for another major hurricane season are already in place....above normal water temps and no El Nino which shears the storms and keeps them away from the east coast. They are predicting another very active hurricane season this year since the waters have not cooled down to where they should be. Actually everywhere is abnormally warm this year.

I personally would not plan a honeymoon for July anywhere in the caribbean. Getting married is stressful enough...adding watching the weather and worring about potential hurricanes, tropical storms, rain is just too much stress. it's not just the threat of hurricanes but everything that goes with it...delayed flights, getting stuck on the island, cutting your trip short, or a TS which you will not have to leave but will make your stay miserible. Im sure the price may be tempting...but there is a risk...that is why the price is lower.

Also July is not really "early" hurricane season...in the recent past they have started as early as April, way before the official start which is May.

Tuxedocat

hhlist: While STJ has been lucky over the past 4 years during July, I wouldn't bet on it. Of course, that would never stop me from risking going there on vacation, but your honeymoon? If you must have the Caribbean, I'd do one of the ABC's (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) but even they are not immune. How about Tahiti?

ONZGO

Aruba is not outside the hurricane belt as commonly believed. This was something that Aruba Tourism promoted as Aruba relies heavily on tourism because it has to import almost everything. If you want you can read a report on this from the Meterological Society of the Netherlands Antilles & Aruba below.

http://www.meteo.an/meteo2/eng/repor...tm#climleeward

There was a hurricane warning out for Aruba in 2004 when hurricane Ivan went through the area. At the last moment Ivan just missed Aruba, but there was major flooding, some beach errosion and damage to some hotels.

Any island in the Caribbean can get a hurricane, but islands from St. Lucia and southward are less likely to have one, but it is still a gamble.

hhlist

Thanks for the advice. Not sure the Caribbean will be our ultimate destinations as we are weighing trips to the Western US, Ireland and St. Johns. Certainly, weather will factor into our final decision. Looks like I better start researching travel insurance as a hedge.

Having grown up in Louisiana, I am all too familiar with Hurricanes and summer vacation planning. Interestingly, I spent last week in Florida on business where a common topic of conversation was our mild winter and its effects on Caribbean water temps. Everyone in Orlando was very concerned that the water is simply too warm and ripe for early storm development in 2006. Let’s all cross fingers and pray that this year sees fewer storms and all of a less severe nature.