Airfare up - when will it go back down?

Jan 22nd, 2003, 09:13 AM
  #1  
chris
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Airfare up - when will it go back down?

I am planning a trip to Maui in June and will be flying out of SFO. Monday the airfare (roundtrip) was about $612 with United. Now it is about $750. Is this normal? Should I book now or should I wait for it to go down within the next couple weeks? Please help!!

Thanks
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 09:47 AM
  #2  
BeachBoi
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June is high season for air fares to Hawaii.Not that really is a "low" season.With AmericanAirlines annoucing a $529MILLION loss last quarter and the retaining of bankruptcy lawyers,they are most likely next to end up in BankruptcyCourt.It is doubtful that any court would allow a bankrupt airline to "give" airline seats away.Not good for the vacationer anywayz.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 10:14 AM
  #3  
AA
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BeachBoi,
Please refrain from putting out wrong information. AA,CO,NW,DL all hired BK lawyers in case of a war. AA is still in the best financial shape out of all the 4 mentioned above. Read the following article from the financial news wire service:

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=BRGJA10BYQJD4C RBAEKSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=2082756

Now back to the original question. Airfares change daily, often hourly. All the airlines cut their capacity and there is still over capacity, so there will be more cuts in the near future. So, there really is no way of predicting if and when you will get better fares. If you are set to go, pick the fare you could live with and book it. If the same fare class goes down after your purchase, the airlines will give you a refund, usually in the form of a travel voucher for future travel. Important to remember, that the new lower fare will have to be for the same flight and same class of fare in order to get the refund.
Have a great trip!
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 11:08 AM
  #4  
Bill
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Try again.
Try different dates, like +1 day on return
or on your departure. Search by price.

United has a fare sale now to Hawaii, but it is travel by March 9. You could check to see what those fares are like for comparison. Compare with the best price you can find now for the dates you want to travel. Then decide how much it is worth to you to wait for a sale, that may not come, for June travel.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 11:24 AM
  #5  
annamal
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I know that Orbitz is promoting a sale right for United to Hawaii. I don't know if it is the same sale talked about above though. If is is, I would suggest waiting a little bit, June is still a ways a way, and maybe another sale will pop up. Good luck.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 11:50 AM
  #6  
Patty
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Looks like the most recent round of Hawaii fare sales that were good thru June have ended. Right now the sales are only for Feb/Mar travel. I would wait for the next round of fare sales. You still have some time to look around. We fly to Hawaii at least once a year and I personally would never pay that kind of a price from the west coast to Maui.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 12:53 PM
  #7  
John
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I think I answered this on another forum (US?) Check Aloha out of OAK. When I checked for June the price was around $420 RT, less if you can get the AAA discount.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 01:12 PM
  #8  
CO
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The main reason the fair changes is because while you are thinking about it, the lower fare seats are being sold. As the travel date approaches, you will find that the fare goes up even more without an advance purchase.
BTW, you will find that CO is in a better position than AA, regardless of what is on the newswire.
Doncha just love the way the media spins the airlines (and about everything else for that matter)?
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 01:21 PM
  #9  
BeachBoi
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AA

http://www.msnbc.com/news/862655.asp?cp1=1
I dont dream things up.Yes I am crossed eyed.But the article is in English too
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 01:38 PM
  #10  
chris
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John,

Did you find the $420 rt from Oakland to Maui directly on the Aloha Airlines website? I just checked and it is $538, which is still a lot lower than United out of SFO.

Thanks a lot for the help!
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 01:58 PM
  #11  
AA
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BeachBoi,
We all know about the loses, but you singled out AA as the only one hiring BK lawyers, and as you could see from the financial news, all the majors either already hired them or are close to due to the possibility of a war and total slow down in air traffic. AA has the most reserves left. Do they still have to make cuts? yes, but they do have more time than others. I deal with the stock market, so I know how to read articles. Your article was pertaining to AMR Inc. only, whereas the one I pointed out talked about all the majors. They are ALL in trouble, but please don't spread rumors about AA going into bankrupcy. If the war does not happen, they are at least a year to 1.5 of staying in business, and that's if they don't do anything from this point on. And as you read both articles they are about half way where they need to be now, with more adjustments being made. So again, don't make irresponsible postings without knowing all the facts.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 02:02 PM
  #12  
AA
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I meant - I know how to read financial reports and articles.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 02:40 PM
  #13  
x
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BeachBoi is the same person who posted that when you buy online you give up all your rights to privacy or some such nonsense, so I would cheerfully ignore her.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 03:11 PM
  #14  
Rob
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AA

Wow. You're right. That article tells you everything you need to know about American's financial status.
 
Jan 22nd, 2003, 03:27 PM
  #15  
AA
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No, the article doesn't tell you all that, but maybe this will open your eyes:

AMR has $2.8 billion in cash and liquid assets, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

even at $6m a day, this would be way more than 5 months' worth.

But they are not draining cash at $6m per day. Look at the statement for the 4th quarter, which includes 92 days:

Operating Loss (including depreciation): $679mn. That would be $7.4 mn per day.

But not all of the loss was in cash, some of it is accounting conventions. The biggest noncash item is depreciation, $347mn. Add that back and you get a rough estimate of "cash drained by operations" of $332, which is "only" $3.6mn per day. [that number can be further refined to account for interest and tax benefits.]

anyway, there is time to reach an agreement since the wolves aren't quite breaking down the door. But one can definitely hear the howling...


 
Jan 23rd, 2003, 11:19 AM
  #16  
John
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Chris, yes, I went to the Aloha website. I dailed in imaginary travel dates of June 2 OAK HNL and June 16 HNL OAK. The price may well vary by date. Were you looking at HNL or OGG?
 
Jan 23rd, 2003, 11:31 AM
  #17  
chris
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John,
I was looking at OGG. June 6 - June 13. I'm sure the rates varied because of the different dates. It is still a lot lower than what I had been looking at. Thank you so much!
 

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