Aruba under Hurricane Watch
Sep 7th, 2004, 07:53 AM
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Aruba under Hurricane Watch
We are continually hearing (incorrectly) that Aruba is not in the Hurricane Belt, so I thought (to avoid complacency now and in future) that I should note that Aruba is, as of now, under Hurricane Watch for Hurricane Ivan.
Of course here in Cayman we are also watching, as even though it is five days away, we are now shown as being on the storm track.
2003 we had zero tropical storms in the Caribbean, but 2004 is making up for it !
Of course here in Cayman we are also watching, as even though it is five days away, we are now shown as being on the storm track.
2003 we had zero tropical storms in the Caribbean, but 2004 is making up for it !
Sep 7th, 2004, 08:36 AM
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Interesting about Aruba......even on their own website they say the following...."Aruba Tourism Authority would like to remind you that Aruba is located OUTSIDE the hurricane belt."
I hope Cayman and the rest of the caribbean weather this storm ok.
I hope Cayman and the rest of the caribbean weather this storm ok.
Sep 7th, 2004, 09:16 AM
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Yes, they do, and some people actually believed it..but seriously, when was the last time you heard of a hurricane bothering with Aruba? G Caymen..well, considering their charity or lack therof toward certain others perhaps God has finally decided to punish them!
Sep 7th, 2004, 09:46 AM
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Just for the record, it has been officially report that it is unprecedented for a hurricane to develop as strong as Ivan that far south. So, technically Aruba is out of the hurricane belt, but "never say never."
Sep 7th, 2004, 10:49 AM
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Re the "TopMan" post, I will not grace it with a reply, but would dearly love it if administrators could upgrade the functionality of this board to allow an "ignore" function.
That guy who keeps posting about the Bahamas might make a few ignore lists too
That guy who keeps posting about the Bahamas might make a few ignore lists too
Sep 7th, 2004, 11:16 AM
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Did some checking...
Since 1851 Aruba has seen 6 hurricanes. The last one in July of 1961. If you add in Tropical storms, the number goes to 12. So, less than once every 12 years. I'd consider that outside the belt.
In the list of hurricane frequency of 60 islands in the Carribean. Aruba was #58.
The Caymans was listed as #32 with 33 hurricanes and 62 hurricanes and tropical storms.
#1 was Abaco in the Bahamas. 37 hurricanes, 77 total.
Watcha got against Aruba, Tom?
Ken
Information:
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/freq.htm
Since 1851 Aruba has seen 6 hurricanes. The last one in July of 1961. If you add in Tropical storms, the number goes to 12. So, less than once every 12 years. I'd consider that outside the belt.
In the list of hurricane frequency of 60 islands in the Carribean. Aruba was #58.
The Caymans was listed as #32 with 33 hurricanes and 62 hurricanes and tropical storms.
#1 was Abaco in the Bahamas. 37 hurricanes, 77 total.
Watcha got against Aruba, Tom?
Ken
Information:
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/freq.htm
Sep 7th, 2004, 01:58 PM
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Good info Ken. We needed something factual to clarify this matter. As we all know Tom has a vested interest in the Caymans and actually I think HIS post is designed to mislead and IT should be taken care of by the Fodors editors. Shame on you Tom.
Sep 7th, 2004, 04:48 PM
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Hmm... I do try to be balanced, in this case I was simply trying to restore some balance.
I do find it slightly ridiculous that I frequently see on this and other boards posts suggesting that anybody taking a vacation between June and November in the Caribbean should go to Aruba... because everywhere else is at Hurricane Risk.
Frankly, that sort of thing really acts negatively on all Caribbean destinations (except Aruba, of course), when in reality no destination is at significant risk of interrupting anybody's holiday.
Take that #1, Abaco. With 77 storms since 1851, that is about one every two years.
Consider that any tropical event will impact an island on average for about 4 days, then if Abaco could be hit once every two years, and the Hurricane season is c180 days long, then every Hurricane season you have about a 1 in 90 chance of having your vacation impacted by a tropical storm or Hurricane... and that is in the #1 impacted destination.
I am convinced that the hyper-awareness of weather data (but not necessarily corresponding level of research and education) has lead, in recent years, to a lot of people unnecessarily changing their travel plans to avoid the Caribbean.
So, that is a general Caribbean issue. My own resort, for example, is trying to address this by having a Hurricane Guarantee policy to try to show people that we consider that they should still come.
To address jacketwatch, yes I naturally have a vested interest in Cayman, but I have nothing against Aruba, and in fact noted in my first post here that Cayman is in the storm track... oh, but unlike TopMan (and now I will reply), I do not ludicrously invoke higher powers to wreak devastation on people
I do find it slightly ridiculous that I frequently see on this and other boards posts suggesting that anybody taking a vacation between June and November in the Caribbean should go to Aruba... because everywhere else is at Hurricane Risk.
Frankly, that sort of thing really acts negatively on all Caribbean destinations (except Aruba, of course), when in reality no destination is at significant risk of interrupting anybody's holiday.
Take that #1, Abaco. With 77 storms since 1851, that is about one every two years.
Consider that any tropical event will impact an island on average for about 4 days, then if Abaco could be hit once every two years, and the Hurricane season is c180 days long, then every Hurricane season you have about a 1 in 90 chance of having your vacation impacted by a tropical storm or Hurricane... and that is in the #1 impacted destination.
I am convinced that the hyper-awareness of weather data (but not necessarily corresponding level of research and education) has lead, in recent years, to a lot of people unnecessarily changing their travel plans to avoid the Caribbean.
So, that is a general Caribbean issue. My own resort, for example, is trying to address this by having a Hurricane Guarantee policy to try to show people that we consider that they should still come.
To address jacketwatch, yes I naturally have a vested interest in Cayman, but I have nothing against Aruba, and in fact noted in my first post here that Cayman is in the storm track... oh, but unlike TopMan (and now I will reply), I do not ludicrously invoke higher powers to wreak devastation on people
Sep 7th, 2004, 05:52 PM
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Thanks for the reply Tom. I don't think you have anything against Aruba either except as a competitor, naturally. I do think you misrepresented the reality of the hurricane probability for Aruba as was illustrated so factually by Ken and can't help but think you did so because of your vested interest in GC which is bias IMHO. I also think Topmans reply was uncalled for. There is enough tourism to go around isn't there? JM2C. Bon dia. 
Sep 7th, 2004, 06:48 PM
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Thx jacketwatch... sorry if it may have come across as bias, but that was not the intention, I think my last post explained my feelings well enough, so enough to say... my apologies.
Sep 8th, 2004, 04:58 AM
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Tom,
I think some people's preoccupation with the weather is that they don't travel to the carribean often. If your trip represents years of saving, then you really want to lower the odds that you'll spend the time without the warmth and sun you expected.
The vast majority of hurricanes head north along some path. This means that the islands in the southern carribean are going to have a lower incidence of tropical storms.
If someone has very few opportunities to travel to the carribean, the odds are slightly better for a storm free vacation in the southern carribean.
I also think you underestimate the impact in your calculation. The data I found recorded events that were pretty much direct hits, within 60nm of the center of the storm. As we all know, it doesn't take a direct hit to impact a vacation. The cloud and rain shield of a hurricane is hundreds of miles wide. So the number of hits in neighboring islands should also be factored in, but I don't know where that data would be.
An interesting site that I point people to that are asking "what will the weather be like in someplace at sometime?" is:
http://www.weatherbase.com/
What you find by wandering around there is that almost all of the carribean is sunny and warm almost all of the time.
Ironically, the rain here just picked up, as the leading edge of the remnants of Frances make their way up here.
Have a good day, Tom.
Ken
I think some people's preoccupation with the weather is that they don't travel to the carribean often. If your trip represents years of saving, then you really want to lower the odds that you'll spend the time without the warmth and sun you expected.
The vast majority of hurricanes head north along some path. This means that the islands in the southern carribean are going to have a lower incidence of tropical storms.
If someone has very few opportunities to travel to the carribean, the odds are slightly better for a storm free vacation in the southern carribean.
I also think you underestimate the impact in your calculation. The data I found recorded events that were pretty much direct hits, within 60nm of the center of the storm. As we all know, it doesn't take a direct hit to impact a vacation. The cloud and rain shield of a hurricane is hundreds of miles wide. So the number of hits in neighboring islands should also be factored in, but I don't know where that data would be.
An interesting site that I point people to that are asking "what will the weather be like in someplace at sometime?" is:
http://www.weatherbase.com/
What you find by wandering around there is that almost all of the carribean is sunny and warm almost all of the time.
Ironically, the rain here just picked up, as the leading edge of the remnants of Frances make their way up here.
Have a good day, Tom.
Ken
Sep 8th, 2004, 05:34 AM
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Good post Ken. I love Aruba and Grand Cayman equally and will return to both but just so my odds are better I will go to Aruba in Sept and save GC for either Dec or April. Though I will say the weather we had in early June in Anguilla was great. Since that is the very start of hurricane season, I would feel comfortable going anywhere at that time.
Sep 8th, 2004, 05:38 AM
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This is what a hurricane expert from the National Hurricane Center once told me: the term "outside the hurricane belt" does not come from them or any hurricane experts. They believe the term was coined by journalists years ago who wanted to differentiate areas where hurricanes hit less from areas where they hit most. And he believes the tourism industry in those areas picked up on it for their own purposes. So there's no such thing as "outside the hurricane belt", but there are definitely parts of the Caribbean that are less susceptible to hurricanes (Aruba/Bonaire/Curacao area).
Anyway, wishing the best to everyone on Ivan's path.
Anyway, wishing the best to everyone on Ivan's path.
