Mapper71

I plan on traveling from Seattle to Madison, WI Aug 20-21 and the prices for tickets are outrageous. Flights are around $415-$500 whereas last fall when I took the same trip it was around $350. I missed out on a deal a few weeks ago where I could have gotten the flight for $280.

I just did a search on Kayak and it said to wait as there is 70% confidence that prices would fall in the next 7 days. Do you find these predictions to be true? Is there a point so many weeks out from your trip that prices will go down significantly? I almost bought a ticket yesterday for $415 and now the flight I was going to take is up to $485. I am afraid to wait any longer but I also feel like prices will go down.

Any advice?

clevelandbrown

Planes are crowded, and more people are buying the ticket you want. Prices rarely go down at the last minute, and often go up. I would buy now.

RoamsAround

No one here has a crystal ball that can tell you how accurate the prediction you found Kayak will turn out. Trying to predict if airfares will go up/down or stay the same is anyone's guess.

suze

This is like guessing about the stock market. I'm not sure why Kayak would say that.

Gardyloo

Comparing summer and fall prices for itineraries to/from Seattle ignores the fact that Seattle is a very popular summer destination - cruisers, vacationers, etc.

I would say it's unlikely prices will go down by much. As fare buckets zero out, all that remains are higher buckets. Because you'll have to connect someplace (ORD, MSP, DFW, DEN...) you actually have to be concerned that both sectors are so undersold that the airline will drop prices. This is even less likely in the peak of the summer vacation season, and during the midweek when plenty of business travel is also taking place.

You might ask yourself, how much would the price have to come down before you'd say "Okay, now"? What if it goes up by the same amount?

sparkchaser

But it now. For all the reasons listed above.

DebitNM

That was then, this is now. Prices for tickets aren't going down. Fewer planes/flights/seats = higher prices along with fuel costs. You have probably missed the window where prices might drop.

Have you thought outside the box - maybe fly Seattle to Chicago via Southwest and then a train to Madison or some other means?

Ty0604

I always buy as soon as I can. Last November I purchased tickets for three people on Kayak for Seattle -----> Indianapolis, Indianapolis----->NYC and Washington DC ----> Seattle for a total of $613. This trip is in August/September of this year. Checking Kayak now the cheapest I could get it for today is roughly $1200. The one downside to buying early is that flights sometimes change as did one of mine but I just leave a half-hour earlier now.

Good luck!

suze

OK if you want to wait 1-week more and see it the Kayak 70% chance prediction comes true, probably no harm in that. But THEN purchase tickets pronto. I very much doubt you will find anything cheaper by waiting until the actual 'last minute'.

sparkchaser

> I very much doubt you will find anything cheaper by waiting until the actual 'last minute'.

Aye. These days most flights are oversold (especially during high season) and you have to ask yourself: "do I feel lucky?" Well do ya, punk?

mrwunrfl

Right, 70% confidence that the price will drop but that might mean $485 to $415. If I saw that overnight price hike I probably would wait a day or two for the $415 with 99% confidence that I would never see the $285 price until autumn. And then bite the bullet or decide not go.

That kayak number also means that there is a 30% chance that the price will stay the same or go up. Kayak's horse is no sure thing.