The report from Intrepid Travel pictures a bleak future for travel. Though it does highlight potential solutions and actions.
A new report commissioned by Intrepid, a B-Corp-certified travel company that focuses on ethical, regenerative travel, outlines the vast differences between travel’s current and future states.
Highlighting the unsustainable current state of travel, Intrepid’s report is not a pretty picture. Examples include extreme weather and summer wildfires in Greece, Italy, Canada, and Hawaii, and the rapid warming of colder destinations like Lapland, in Finland. Rising sea levels are cited as another major threat to low-lying destinations—Venice, Amsterdam, Miami, New Orleans, and the Maldives are called out as destinations that could reach or be near uninhabitability by 2050.
The Possibility of a “Carbon Passport”
A future is envisioned where travelers have a personal carbon emissions limit–tracked on a so-called “carbon passport.” The report notes that “experts suggest that individuals should currently limit their carbon emissions to 2.3 tonnes each year—the equivalent of taking a round-trip from Rio de Janeiro to Riyhadh.” The report also notes that the average carbon footprint per capita in the United States is 16 tonnes per year, suggesting that there are significant reductions still needed.
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The report does not, however, name the experts, and similarly does not review any legislation or plans by any government to develop individual carbon emissions monitoring programs. Up until now, private companies have been leading the way in reducing carbon emissions in travel, mostly by offering travelers the option to purchase carbon offsets. So travelers don’t need to worry about legislative interventions to their travel plans just yet.
Travelers have thus far been mostly resistant to efforts to track and offset emissions from travel—particularly when it increases costs. Some airlines have reported relatively low uptake from travelers on their carbon offset schemes, although many have noted that younger travelers are among the most likely to purchase, indicating a generational shift that could grow as younger travelers comprise a growing share of the market.
Where Will Travelers Go in the Future?
Intrepid also posits that travelers will shift from sun-seeking to shade-seeking as popular vacation destinations heat up—particularly the summer travel seasons in the Mediterranean, Canada, and Australia. These destinations could be replaced with cooler climates, like parts of Scandinavia and the Baltic, Belgium, Slovenia, and Poland.
Other destinations are called out as being particularly at risk for three major reasons: overtourism, rising sea levels, and climate change. Machu Picchu, France’s Etretat Cliffs, Italy’s Cinque Terre, Barcelona, Bali, Venice, and Boracay i the Philippines are mentioned as being impacted by overtourism. Rising seas are the top risks for Jakarta, Bangkok, The Bahamas, and Mumbai, while climate change is expected to dramatically transform the Dead Sea, Great Barrier Reef, Glacier National Park, much of Australia, and Africa, where it’s projected over half the continent’s bird and mammal species could be extinct by 2100.
Some destinations are already working on Regenerative Travel programs–that is, travel that is additive, rather than extractive to local communities. This includes Albania, New Zealand, Canada, Costa Rica, and Rwanda—all are working toward sustainably, carbon-zero visitor economies, and developing strategies to refocus their tourism promotion around destination stewardship and the inclusion of Indigenous voices through programs managed by Indigenous peoples.
Train travel, hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft, and airships (yes, airships, filled with helium) are some of the innovations tagged as being integral to a lower-carbon future travel landscape, although some of these are short on detail and tend to echo the some of the pie-in-the-sky optimism of climate activism’s genesis in the 1990s (we’re still waiting on those fleets of solar-powered cars).
Where Will Action Come From to Reduce Carbon Emissions?
There’s a lot of focus in the report on individual traveler choices and corporate responsibility–which can lead to greenwashing (that is, companies doing things that may appear eco-friendly to consumers, but are in fact not impactful). While individual and corporate self-monitoring will certainly help reduce emissions, legislative actions by governments around the world will ultimately be much more effective in driving the necessary change, with the necessary speed. The report mentions that worldwide travel accounts for around 8% of the globe’s current carbon emissions–meaning the onus for change isn’t just on the travel sector, but shared across industries.
The report’s most salient observations may in fact come in the conclusion, where it’s noted that there’s a lot of discussion around climate change and a more sustainable, regenerative future for travel, but efforts thus far are largely focused on discussion and education rather than action. Immediate action—it says—is necessary to begin building how the future of travel will look—for both travelers and the communities that welcome them.