Lenore

What's going on with the airlines? About 3 weeks ago I started checking into fares from South Florida (FLL or PBI) to Hawaii. At that time RT tickets were between $600+ to $800+. Now that I have a better idea of what I want and am ready to book.....the flights have jumped to $900+ to $1200+!!! How irrating is that? Please assure me that the fares will go down and I will still be able to go to Hawaii this Spring. Your thoughts?

flight

I was listening to NPR yesterday & they had some travel expert that was talking about how the cost of flights had been sky rocketing recently (especially in the last day or two aparently)! anyway he said he didn't think it would last toooo long b/c people would just be willing to wait to travel when the prices are lower once again. so maybe if you hold out they will drop to a more reasonable amount once again! good luck!

J T Kirk

Does anyone, other than us old folks, remember the days before airline de-regulation? You paid one price to go somewhere. Sure, the fares were higher (adjusted for inflation), but you didn't have any of this "will-the-fares-go-down" waiting and wondering. Things seemed to be much simpler back then. Then again, I thought Ozzie and Harriet were pretty cool people, so, who knows.

Jaime

I am also shocked...the price on Delta from New Orleans to San Fransciso for the dates we wanted was $222. Now, its over $400. In one day! I hope they go down or we can't go.

philip

This hits on something from week 1 of Freshman year Macroeconomics course.

Supply and demand. Airlines have cut capacity post-September 11th (Supply). Americans (as a group) are less likely to head overseas this summer for vacation because of safety concerns but are starting to fly again, overall (Expectation of Demand.)

Unless one or the other changes in reality or perception/expectations, prices won't come down. If you are willing to gamble, prices might come down. Then again, they might not.

Lenore

I went to college too and understand the concepts of supply and demand. However, I really don't think supply has diminished or demand has increased (since the 2nd week of Jan) so much that a 30-40% increase in airfare is justified!

natalie

I've noticed the same thing! I'm trying to find tkts to Hawaii in July and haven't seen anything under $750, the price has gone up $100 since last week. I'm worried that these prices won't go down - maybe many people purchased tkts for summer during that big airfare sale in november. Help!!!!!

nina

It is wacky, the airfares are bouncing faster than Dolly Parton in a relay race!

philip

The supply of seats have dropped by at least 20% last year. In some smaller markets, like FLL and PBI, it is much greater.

There was a Wall Street Journal article last week that showed specific markets, including those two, where the number of flights have dropped significantly.

In terms of demand, what you price to is the expectation. From every article I've read and discussions with colleagues who cover the travel industry, the expectation is that American's will generally skip Europe this year.

Let me explain, in August of 2001 Continental had 5.1BN available domestic seat miles and a 77% load factor for approximately 3.9Bn miles with a butt in a seat.

In December 2001, it's capacity dropped by 11.3% over Dec. 2000 to 3.97Bn miles.

If you assume an 11.3% drop in Aug '02 vs Aug. '01, you've reduced capacity to 4.52Bn miles. If you assume another 3.9Bn miles with a butt in a seat, your load factor is about 87%.

Understand my point, L.

nina

So does this mean we may actually get a decent rate to Italy this summer? When's your best guestimate for the time to buy?

Rosemary

Bouncing airfares - on Delta's website the dates we wanted for a DC-Salt Lake City flight in April were $383 yesterday, $268 today! Same dates. I guess we should keep looking them up every day, if we have the time!

klam

When we have a trip in mind, I check fares daily for at least 8 weeks out...this way I know what a good fare is when I see one, and can book it right away. Also, it gives me an idea of trends. I agree with the increases, though...haven't bought for our Feb trip yet. However, hearing what you are all saying about increasing fares, makes me think I should lock in now!

Susan

Klam, your reminder of checking daily to find the best fares is bringing back the eye twitch and pinched nerve I had in my neck last June when booking our tickets to Europe!

xx

Maybe it has to do with the number of people flying into Florida for Spring Break. Did you check an alternative airport like Miami?

Lenore

Yes, I checked MIA as well as FLL and PBI. MIA actually had the worst flights and highest fares (which is fine by me because I hate that airport). I generally check airfares daily for 4-6 weeks when I'm ready to book a trip. This Hawaii vacation has been a little more complicated because we want to do multiple islands and the overall expense is considerably higher than other vacations we've taken in recent years. Anyway, I'm sure the fares will come back to reality....and if they don't we'll go somewhere else!

Les

I recently checked the usual discount sites (CheapTickets, Expedia, Orbitz, Travelocity, etc.) for flights from Denver to Burbank with 3 days notice. The cheapest fare I came up with was over $800. So I bid $180 at Priceline, and it was accepted. Turned out to be with United Airlines, nonstop, at very reasonable times. I think the published fares are bogus. Put in a bid, what can you lose?

KenCT

I suppose I shouldn't knock Priceline, because I haven't tried it, but I don't like the concept of bidding on flights and times that are unknown until after the purchase is made.

I've been very satisfied with Travelocity's fare watcher service. You plug in up to five trips, and they send you an email whenever any of them goes up or down by $25. Since I check my email very early in the morning, I've gotten some real deals.

TC

The $100 price increase you've seen in the last week is due to airlines passing along the new fees for security measures. If you check the fare breakdown on tickets "fees & taxes" you will see the increase. Last friday was the deadline for airlines to implement new baggage screening security measures. They are allowed to increase the price of tickets by about $50 per segment for this service. Its not going to go away anytime soon. We just have to live with it.

Sherry

Am I the only one who thinks Philip is more than a little patronizing? Spare us the professor crap. I've been all the way through graduate school in Economics and I still think that the price of airline tickets for my honeymoon to Hawaii, having increased by $200 in the past week and a half, is absurd, even factoring in supply and demand.

XXX

I am leaving in March (TWO PEOPLE)Miami to Hawaii - Three Islands. Round Trip including interisland airfare came close to 2,000$ (american and aloha airlines) for the both of us. I don't know if this is good or not? But If it sounds goo to you try booking a pakage deal through -Blue sky, or Pleasant Hawaian