ccolor

How accurate has anybody noticed Accuweather 15 day predictions? I'm so bad about checking the weather where we're heading for vacation as early as I can, but honestly don't understand how it can be accurate that far in advance.

J62

Let me guess: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance of rain 30%. High temperature 75 (Florida) 60-65 (DC), or 50-55 (NYC). You get the point.

They can't be accurate that far in advance. Mother nature herself hasn't made up her mind yet either.

They do give you a good feeling for historical trends, but that's about it past 5days.

That said, for the past 2 weeks I've been getting daily alerts from Accuweather on my upcoming trip to USVI, more to remind me that it's warmer there than it is here! Vacation anticipation!

happytrailstoyou

I use Accuweather.com for planning trips on the West Coast and my experience is that it is often wrong. It is difficult to predict storms coming in off the Pacific Ocean. On the other hand, the prediction of favorable weather has often inspired me to hit the road and I have never regretted that.

Anonymous

One night last week, I went to bed after hearing the Accuweather forecast for my city predicting 6 to 12 inches of snow. We got one inch of slush. That's a 15-HOUR prediction that they blew completely. IMHO, a 15-day forecast is about as reliable as checking the city's records of historic averages.

jor

The National Weather Service only a few years ago changed their forcast from five days to seven days. Anyone who is giving a fifteen day forcast is a snake oil carni.

Cassandra

A metereologist I respect has said that 6 days is about the outer limit of predictability. My own highly inexpert experience is that whatever the weather services are saying will be the case a week from today is pretty much exactly what won't happen! (And you'd be surprised how often that works.)

GoTravel

I can accurately give you the weather forcast for July 2006 on the coast of South Carolina.

Very hot, very humid, and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

Patrick

Well considering I sometimes turn on the TV and hear the local broadcast saying there is 0 chance of rain today, then look outside and see it's pouring rain, I have very little faith in 15 day predictions.

ccolor

I just love you guys! - the basis is, right now we're in Ohio and kinda cold and in 11 days we'll be in Key Largo and much warmer..... That's pretty much all I need to concentrate on (and the fact that I've had too much wine while working around the house and have had to "re-type" this too many times)...... Thanks for once again being a placw to go for info (yep, I know I screwed up the word, but I'm done...........)

karens

ccolor - I have a tendency to obsess about the weather before we leave on vacations, and I don't know why, b/c I check the weather channel and they are so often WRONG. We just got back from USVI and the WC said rain showers for 2 of the days we were there and there was no rain at all. One morning our jeep's front window had about 30 large drops of water on it, so maybe it did rain a tad.

I just found a web site called weatherunderground.com. Here you can put in a city, and then click on Trip Planner, and then your dates. They will give you the historical records going back years for the time frame you indicate. Then they give you statistics based on what happened during this time frame in the past, i.e., you have x% chance of rain; y% chance of a cloudy day, etc. Just another way for you to obsess!

Annabel

The most accurate weather I have found is www.weatherunderground.com

If you click on travel planner, it will give you all the historical weather day to day. I have found this to be more accurate than accuweather or the weather channel. I always check this site before booking a trip....when you spend thousands on a vacation, it's a good idea to get as much info as you can

gail

While I try to have respect for the complexities of weather forecasting, you would think that with all the satellite, doppler reindeer or whatever they use, they could get it right more often than they do. Or maybe it is just how fickle weather is in New England.

Fifteen days seems really long - I would settle for 24 hours when at home.

Give me San Diego in the summer. When we asked the guy at the hotel desk what the weather would be like in AM, he laughed at us since it is always the same in the summer.

traveler24

I also use weatherunderground--often 5 day forecast is %90 correct..
They have a useful month by month calendar-- Example
April 2000-- shows each day "averages" then Actual temps and precip..I was planning a trip in Feb.but after I checked previous 5 years at that location, I changed to mid March. Worked out very well.
As in any prediction, there are real surprises...As late Feb.2004...we had 3-4 days of over 80 - VERY unusual...
Love "gotravel"'s forcast for July South Carolina !!!

FainaAgain

Highly inaccurate.

Weather.com is much better, but it's only for 10 days.

MFNYC

I don't think any of them are that accurate several days in advance. I always check in advance of a trip, and every day I check the weather forecast changes. I checked the 10 day forecast on weather and intellicast for New Orleans on Wed. It said rain all day sat. and sun. We had about 1/2 day rain on sat only. SUnday turned out to be 70s and sunny.

Weather patterns can change at a moments notice so they can never be all that accurate until maybe the day before.

Smokyboy

Anything past 3 days and they are doing a couple of things. They are using past weather data for that date. They compile data on a computer and the computer compiles a "prediction". They are "guessing". Only job in the world were you can be wrong 1/2 the time and still make 100 grand a year.