I know everyone says to do all money conversions while in Italy via credit card or ATM and of course this makes sense. However, I've been watching the conversion rates over the last several months and the lira has been dropping like a stone. I leave in 6 weeks and have this fear that when I arrive in Italy the lira will have recovered and I could have bought it now at the lowest price it's been in 1 1/2 years. Any sage wisdom out there??

Converting money is ALMOST always a crap shoot. Good luck!

Forecasting currency prices is at least as hard as forecasting stock prices. <BR> <BR>Here's how wrong the "experts" on the Yahoo currency forecast board have been in the past three months. <BR> <BR>================================== <BR> <BR>ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY: The EIU consensus was overly optimistic about the euro exchange rate vs the dollar in its February forecast. The consensus mean expected the euro appreciation, which began in December and continued in the first half of January, to continue during the forecast period. The consensus expected the single currency to reach $0.95:Euro1 by May. Another raise, to $0.98:Euro1, was forecast for the mid-point of the 12- month forecast period, and the euro was expected to reach parity with the dollar a year down the road. A strengthening vs the yen was also expected, with the euro trading at Y113.1:Euro1 three months from February. <BR> <BR>Yet, the forecast target for May proved to be a limit for the euro appreciation vs the dollar. In fact, the currency has gone in reverse and has been marking time just below $0.9:Euro1. At the same time, although the euro did strengthen vs the yen, to around Y108:Euro1 from Y100:Euro1 late last year, this has been the result of a greater than anticipated weakness of the Japanese currency vs the dollar. Investors remain apprehensive about the euro, just as they have been for most of the past two years. US interest rates have now come down below comparable rate levels in the euro-zone, after staring the year 1.75 percentage points higher. Yet, rate differentials have done little to bolster the single currency. In fact, the currency market is clearly sceptical about the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to keep its interest rates on hold in the face of a spreading global economic slowdown. The danger is that once signs of a downturn in the euro-zone intensify, the ECB may be forced to slash its rates quickly, damaging its own reputation further. <BR> <BR>The consensus still sees an upward trend for the single currency going forward. However, it no longer expects the euro to reach parity with the greenback any time during the 12-month period. The consensus sees the euro close to its current levels, or at $0.9:Euro1, three months from now. It is expected to strengthen marginally over the medium term, to just $0.905:Euro1. The medium-term outlook was downgraded from April, when a rise to $0.915:Euro1 was anticipated. Finally, the long-term rally will be capped at $0.95:Euro1, according to the consensus mean. <BR> <BR>================================== <BR> <BR>From http://biz.yahoo.com/ifc/it/currency.html <BR> <BR>You could buy lire today, and you might experience 5% appreciation in the next 6 weeks. Or ten. Or lose ten. The same thing could be said about stocks. Buying currencies on a speculative basis is gambling, pure and simple. If you like gambling that much, you might want to try including "the Venetian" or "Bellagio" (the hotels in Las Vegas) on your next trip. <BR> <BR>Best wishes, <BR> <BR>Rex <BR> <BR>P.S. And I seem to recall one other thread, on which the phrase "whoanelly" was used. I'll see if I can find it. <BR> <BR> <BR> <BR>

The dollar against the lire is steadily rising again, but no matter what, it is at an all-time high and has been for about 18 months. If the dollar falls so drastically against the lire in the next 18 months, you have much more to worry about than the relative exchange rate, which by the way is pegged to the euro anyway.

The rate is still most favorable. You get such an unfavorable rate buying lira in this country that it really does't pay to get it now. Assuming you'd be exchanging the money in the US, the dollar would have to drop quite a bit in the next few months to make it worthwhile to exchange the money here now. I'm no economist, but I don't think it's going to happen. <BR>

Just got home from being in Italy for three weeks in May. The conversion rate is over 2200 Lire per dollar and has been quite steady for the last 6 months. The Euro is falling and is in need of being proppoed up. <BR> <BR> We used our ATM's as much as possible, but the ATM's downlinked on the weekend and had to take cash advances from credit cards. We noticed that there was a flat service charge no matter how much you took out. On the credit cards there was a $5 service charge. <BR> <BR>My advice is <BR>(1) to take the maximum out each time you withdraw money. The conversion rate for travelers checks over there was approximately 2150 Lire to the dollar. (2) to take travelers checks in U.S. Dollars as a back up ~$1,000 for emergencies. (we never used them) <BR>(3) take ~ four days worth of cash in Lire <BR>(4) Use ATM's not credit cards for cash advances. <BR>(5) Use Credit Cards whenever possible. <BR> <BR>The above worked for us. If you need anything else, give me an e-mail <BR> <BR>Kathy <BR> <BR>

The dollar to lira rate hasnt'changed by more than 6% all year. Unless the European Central Bank lowers interest rates it will stay about where it is. When the bank does lower rates (as it will), the lira will probably go back up a point or two. <BR> <BR>What do you think your charge would be to buy lire right now? How much interest will you lose being invested in lire? (Do you put them under your mattress?) How much risk can you stand that the lire might, just possibly, go 10 points the other way? <BR> <BR <BR> <BR>Frankly, nelly, unless you're a professional foreign exchange dealer you probably ought to leave currency trading to the pros. Enjoy your trip. <BR> <BR>twenj

To whoanelly <BR>If you insist on stocking up on Lira before your trip, the most economical way is to ask a friend who is going to Italy now to withdraw extra cash for you, and reimburse them on their return the $ equivalent charged by their bank.