Should I buy Euro's now?
Jan 29th, 2015, 11:36 AM
#21
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"in any event, interest rates in the US have nowhere to go but up while Europe's are relatively high. "
Eh?
From today's Economist. 10 yr bond rates
USA 1.78%
European sovereign states:
UK 1.53%
Sweden 0.73%
Switzerland 0.0%
Norway 1.36%
Eurozone:
ECB 0.35%
France 0.58%
Germany 0.35%
Italy 1.64%
Spain 1.48%
Eh?
From today's Economist. 10 yr bond rates
USA 1.78%
European sovereign states:
UK 1.53%
Sweden 0.73%
Switzerland 0.0%
Norway 1.36%
Eurozone:
ECB 0.35%
France 0.58%
Germany 0.35%
Italy 1.64%
Spain 1.48%
Jan 30th, 2015, 05:54 AM
#22
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Flanner--I didn't mean market rates--I meant benchmark rates between Fed and ECB. The Fed is now talking about raising its benchmark rate while the ECB is talking about "quantitative easing," a stage that that the Fed went through in the US.
The US economy appears to be improving while the Eurozone's is worsening--in fact, there is some indication that deflation may be setting in. When the US improvement looks certain, the Fed will raise its benchmark rate and that will drive the dollar higher. So if I had to bet on the relatively short term--that is, decide whether to buy Euros now or wait until summer 2015--I'd wait because I think it is more likely that the dollar will continue to rise relative to the Euro.
The US economy appears to be improving while the Eurozone's is worsening--in fact, there is some indication that deflation may be setting in. When the US improvement looks certain, the Fed will raise its benchmark rate and that will drive the dollar higher. So if I had to bet on the relatively short term--that is, decide whether to buy Euros now or wait until summer 2015--I'd wait because I think it is more likely that the dollar will continue to rise relative to the Euro.
Jan 30th, 2015, 11:50 AM
#26
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FHurdle, "I currently don't have an ATM or debit card, because of the extreme level of risk involved. " I guess we all have our own definition of risk. And you should travel the way you are most comfortable. I never use debit cards, because they don't offer the same protections against fraud that credit cards do. But you can get an ATM card that is not a debit card, if that it your concern. I have my bank issue me a card that is an ATM-only card. I know of people who have their financial institution "turn off" the debit card function on the card they use to withdraw money from ATMs.
You are quite right, a card can be eaten by a machine. I've never had that happen in all of my travels, but we do each bring two ATM cards on each trip.
Robert, I am looking forward to the Euro being at par (or below) again!
You are quite right, a card can be eaten by a machine. I've never had that happen in all of my travels, but we do each bring two ATM cards on each trip.
Robert, I am looking forward to the Euro being at par (or below) again!
Jan 30th, 2015, 12:12 PM
#27
Because I travel to Europe yearly, I always buy a little euros on an dip.
That way buying them in small quantities but more often is easier and more palatable when the price is higher
That way buying them in small quantities but more often is easier and more palatable when the price is higher
Jan 30th, 2015, 12:13 PM
#28
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Robert:
So true. I was in Paris in November of 2000 and a friend of mine and I each bought a stainless Cartier Tank Francaise watch at the Cartier store at Place Vendome. Price per watch was US $1700 before the VAT refund. Still have the watches, too.
So true. I was in Paris in November of 2000 and a friend of mine and I each bought a stainless Cartier Tank Francaise watch at the Cartier store at Place Vendome. Price per watch was US $1700 before the VAT refund. Still have the watches, too.
Jan 30th, 2015, 11:40 PM
#29
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I also agree with those who think that the Euro is more likely to depreciate further against the dollar than appreciate. I also just use an ATM to get cash and think it is safer than carrying a lot of cash. Only in Japan do I tend to carry more cash than normal. We do have 2 atm cards on two accounts when we travel just to be safe. I also carry $2000 in AMX travelers checks as an extra precaution but that is probably overkill.
Jan 31st, 2015, 08:01 AM
#32
If you have a Charles Schwab account, their debit card charges NO FEE. I used it in Prague this past November and we got the XE.com rate, nothing added. And Schwab will rebate any ATM charges so it really is great. We also have a credit card that doesn't charge any foreign transaction fee and got the XE.com rate with that as well. Those sneaky fees really can add up so having these two cards is a nice perk.
But, to give you an example of never knowing how currency will behave, on our way to Prague, we had a short layover in Vienna and decided to take out some Euros for future trips at an ATM because the rate was "only" $1.26. While it seemed like a good rate at the time, in retrospect, not so much. We only took out 120 Euros. And compared to what we were paying for Euros when we went to Berlin in June, it seemed cheap.
But, to give you an example of never knowing how currency will behave, on our way to Prague, we had a short layover in Vienna and decided to take out some Euros for future trips at an ATM because the rate was "only" $1.26. While it seemed like a good rate at the time, in retrospect, not so much. We only took out 120 Euros. And compared to what we were paying for Euros when we went to Berlin in June, it seemed cheap.
