flanneruk

To answer PQ's questions:

<b>"One thing that would impact the typical tourist"</b>
No-one has the faintest idea what will happen if Britain votes to leave - or the timetable for what will happen next.

A straightfoward Brexit will have no immediate effect on travellers: even in EU Schengen countries, today's segregated immigration queues separate EU/EFTA/Swiss travellers from everyone else and practically the only thing clear about Britain's post-EU trade settlements is that Britain is likely to leave the EU only as it acquires at least some EFTA-like status.The near-universal opposition to Brexit from Britain's travel industry stems from:

- uncertainty about British airlines', airports' and their suppliers' ability to hire non-Britons

- the question mark over Ryanair's commitment to substantial UK support bases

- potential difficulties with foreign airport ownership

- fears about added bureaucracy

- above all though: serious fears about London's survival as Europe's commercial capital, which is the real source of most air-industry business.

None of this really affects travellers, and is just a lot of different ways of saying "business hates uncertainty." Britain's been a terrific place to operate an airline or airport for the past 20 years: even our planning restrictions enhance Gatwick and Heathrow profitability. Any significant change worries most sensible businesses.

hetismij2

bedar, British expats in Europe generally contribute to the local health care system. We certainly do. And it isn't free healthcare in many countries.

We do have our EHIC card which gives us the same entitlement to healthcare, at the same cost, as locals in any EEA country. Note EEA, not EU.

The London Stock Exchange is perhaps preparing for a possible Brexit by merging (as a junior shareholder!) with Frankfurt.

PatrickLondon

Technically, the referendum (I believe the authorising bill has yet to go through Parliament) would be advisory anyway, rather than of immediate legal effect. In the event of a No majority, there wouldn't be an automatic reversion to some pre-defined state of affairs.

There would have to be a process of negotiation with the other member states under Article 50 of the relevant treaty, which provides for an exit mechanism. This would tidy up the loose ends of existing agreements, and would take as long as all those involved are prepared to let it take.

There is no guarantee as to what consequent arrangements and agreements might or might not be made between the UK and the EU/EEA, nor does anyone have any idea in what sort of timeframe this or any future government might wish to amend or replace existing UK legislation applying previously agreed EU policies and legislation, or what effect this would have.

As for how businesses and financial markets would react to all this while it drags on, well, if I knew that I wouldn't be sitting here typing about it.

Tulips

>>>"Scotland will leave the UK and join Europe."<<<
Some countries, ie Spain, will oppose Scotland joining, as it sets a precedent for other separatist movements.

Switzerland manages to have a large banking sector without being part of the EU, why wouldn't the City be able to continue as it is?

sandralist

It's not just Spain. It is most national governments in the European Union who oppose separatist movements. Whataever the Scottish nationals want to do, the present political power structure of Europe and the Eurozone is quite unlikely to change its attitude on splitting up unions. Sooner the dissolution of the European Union itself.

Whathello

Biggest impact in short term will be evolution of the GBP.
It will certainly evolve.
But how ?

flanneruk

"Switzerland manages to have a large banking sector without being part of the EU, why wouldn't the City be able to continue as it is?"

Switzerland's banking industry is compared to London's financial services industry, which covers far more than banking.

A significant proportion of that industry relies on its EU Single Market rights: rights in many cases Swiss-domiciled businesses don't have under the concept of "passporting". There's no point speculating about this: every single major City employer now has contingency plans for moving jobs (sometimes in their tens of thousands) to other EU centres if there's a pro-Brexit vote.

Ironically, some of the loudest supporters of Brexit are hedge funds who've moved to Switzerland because of EU regulations. They might thrive in Switz: but they employ practically no-one.

These economic minnows keep on claiming - and quoted by Brexit supporters - to represent City opinion.

flanneruk

PQ questions: 2

<b>whether they are in favor of leaving the EU</b>
Deeply though I loathe the EU, the Brexit debate has brought home to me how much worse off Britain would be if we left. The best possible outcome, of course, would be if the debate forced Britons to take enough interest in the ghastly mess to start actively engaging in the corrupt mire's governance.

The problem is, though, that no decent British politician will touch it and no ambitious Briton wants to work for it. And the Brexit debate has probably pissed the rest of the EU off so much our chances of reforming it are even lower than they were five years ago.

<b>how they think the vote would go</b>
Polls are currently 50/50 with a quarter of the population undecided (and, IMHO, unlikely to vote). I wouldn't bet on the result either way: so far the public debate has been balls-achingly obsessed with Tories trying to undermine their party rivals' leadership bids.

You can't rule out some real issues popping up. I'm particularly concerned about scare stories around long-term Muslim immigration, though others fret that European banks' impending crisis might blow up before the referendum. All might ignite opinion either way.

Conversely, the factual Brexit arguments right now are mostly based on fantasies (like "we'd easily get a free trade deal with India by ourselves"). The longer the debate, the more these are likely to be exposed. The only significant foreign politician to support Brexit is Putin.

traveller1959

>>The only significant foreign politician to support Brexit is Putin.<<

How true. Think about it.

Tulips

Paul de Grauwe, a Belgian professor at LSE, is pro Brexit; he wants closer cooperation within the EU, and feels that this is easier to achieve without the UK.

For me that would be a reason to keep the UK in the EU. At least they are a critical voice against 'ever closer union'.

dotheboyshall

<i>For me that would be a reason to keep the UK in the EU. At least they are a critical voice against 'ever closer union'.</i>

It comes across as whining and sulking. There's never an alternative, just "no".

Whathello

'Paul de Grauwe, a Belgian professor at LSE, is pro Brexit; he wants closer cooperation within the EU, and feels that this is easier to achieve without the UK. '

Yes Tulips : a lot of people overhere think that we could at least manage better without UK, which is constantly slowing us.

Actually, it is like joining a club : you have 20 guys happy in the club and one dragging his feet : the 20 others would be better without him.

PatrickLondon

>>There's never an alternative, just "no".<<

Quite. It would have been perfectly possible to construct an alternative around the idea that the treaties speak of "ever closer union of <i>peoples</i>", not state or quasi-state institutions, particularly those that are wide open to corporate lobbying and manipulation (often for the simple reason that member states will the ends without seriously thinking about the means needed even to think about it properly). It's not that it's necessarily venally corrupt - everything that's done in the development of legislation is available somewhere, but it's "hidden in plain sight" since no-one really takes on responsibility for reporting on it in a sensible way, through the prism of the concerns of any given national public opinion.

But as flanner says, no British politician - and I suspect this is true of other member states - really wants to get to grips with this. A major part of the complaints we get about "impositions from Brussels" are actually a reflection of how ineffective Parliament has been in keeping an eye on what ministers of successive governments have been doing in Europe, and in looking ahead at what might be coming over the European horizon.

But it suits the governments of all member states to be able to come back home and complain that it's all the fault of everyone else that they couldn't get their way.

flanneruk

"It comes across as whining and sulking."

That's what the Continental Britophobes said when we spurned the Euro (to which, BTW, we offered a real alternative: financial discipline. Which they spurned). That's what they said when we spurned Schengen. That's what they said when we refused to keep paying higher membership fees than our alleged "partners" for the privilege of being forced to buy their over-priced food.

To most people in Britain, the Continent's Euro-fanatics come across as anti-democratic and corrupt. But as long as they keep providing our economy with cheap workers, we'll put up with them. If they resent our honesty, they can always try and find jobs back home.

I'll vote to stay in the EU. That doesn't mean I'm voting to like the institution.

traveller1959

Euro-fanatics
anti-democratic
corrupt
manipulation
ineffective
whining and sulking

"You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you might find
You get what you need"

dotheboyshall

<i>I'll vote to stay in the EU. That doesn't mean I'm voting to like the institution.</i>

I look at who wants Brexit - IDS, Gove, Howard, Farage, Boris, Putin - and think "I wouldn't want to be in a club they are members of".

Mind you the in camp isn't much better but at least, apart from Osborne, none are intentionally evil.

Tulips

I don't agree with that, Whathello. I am not in favor of transferring more power from national parliaments to the EU.
Is the EU slowing that process down? I hope so.

Are we fighting to keep a country like Greece in, and happy to let a large contributor such as the UK go? There's something wrong with that.

Well, I can always move to London. If I can get a visa.

RM67

I look at who wants Brexit - IDS, Gove, Howard, Farage, Boris, Putin - and think "I wouldn't want to be in a club they are members of".

Mind you the in camp isn't much better but at least, apart from Osborne, none are intentionally evil.'

This.

Tulips

Meant to say 'is the UK slowing that process down'

hetismij2

Tulips talks a lot of sense.

I could always move back to the UK except it is no place for the old and the poor. Not that the Netherlands is much better.