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How low will the dollar go?

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How low will the dollar go?

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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:15 AM
  #61  
 
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Degas:

1. Paying money into social security each pay period is taking personal responsibilty. It is a form of savings. We all particpate in the system. It is there as a direct result of the choice of the majority of voters. If they do not like it as a form of savings, they can vote for change. It is the politicians who have failed to take responsibility, most notably the current admininstration. We spend billions of dollars on wasted efforts, including attempted installation of our way of life on non-threatening regimes under the guise of "world peace."
2. People at minimum wage and lower income levels cannot afford to save enough to put a dent on the amount needed for retirement. Your rosey-ass scenerio neglects to account for the huge rise in health care costs and many other living costs.
3. In the good old days before SS, there were poor houses or children would have to care fully for aging parents. I suppose that is what you want for the lower classes.
4. As I said yesterday, this site is full of elitist wealthy if not comfortable snobs who have no concept of what it is like to be on a limited or fixed income. As long as those like "Degas," "Rexy" or their ilk have enough in their portfolios (probably got from ovecharging the less fortunate), to hell with the rest. Let them eat bread! You are a mean group of elistists. God strike down your mean little hearts and fling your blackend souls to the underworld!
nellyanne is offline  
Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:17 AM
  #62  
 
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Unless you have a Defined Benefit Plan, most of your retirement savings will depend on how much you have put into a Defined Contribution Plans. The current limit to put in yearly is $11,000. If you hit a bear market you could be in trouble. If you are counting on your house for your retirement what happens if the 80’s come again?
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:17 AM
  #63  
 
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nellyanne, you sure expect a lot out of free advice. My days of writing well documented research papers and giving insightful lectures are long over.

You can go check out Money magazine, Business Week, WSJ, Forbes or Barrons if you like. Still not satisified? Then sign up and have the Federal Reserve Board send you periodic economic updates.

This first consultation is free, all others will be charged at my standard rate of $150 per hour, plus personal expenses.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:27 AM
  #64  
 
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I was looking into going to Hawaii for 10-12 days, but when I looked at the costs, it would probably be cheaper for me to go back to Italy, even at the current Euro rate.

Degas, can I get some advice? What should I do? At your hourly rate, can I just get 15 minutes worth?
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:28 AM
  #65  
 
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Michel_Paris, I like your idea about options for getting people to save for retirement. I really believe private accounts is the way to go for younger workers with a gradual phase out of the existing SS system.

I also like the idea Degas proposed of having the governemnt help out lower income or disabled workers via general revenues. At least then all could see where the money was going.

I'm really not as heartless and uncaring as many of you think. I just think you don't have to have a socialist society in order to create adequate minimum standards and safety nets for people.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:35 AM
  #66  
 
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What's wrong with this picture?

"I also like the idea...of having the governemnt help out lower income or disabled workers via general revenues."

"I just think you don't have to have a socialist society in order to create adequate minimum standards and safety nets for people."

And exactly where is the bright line that separates the first statement from socialism?
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:42 AM
  #67  
20 Anniversary
 
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I agree with Chat Noir's comment at the top of the list! Happy Travels!
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:50 AM
  #68  
ira
 
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For those of you who have become Social Darwinists, I suggest that you spend a little more time doing charitable works.

For those of you who think that the stock market never goes down, I suggest that you take a look at all of the bear markets since 1960 and decide how long you can go without retirement income.

For those of you who think that politicians are ripping off the SS system, I suggest that you consider how much commission a stock broker gets to buy and sell your stock for you.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 09:54 AM
  #69  
 
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There is a fine line between society caring for its less well off and society encouraging people to live off of handouts. I believe that government, being the one agency that collects taxes and distributes those monies is the logical agency to manage this..BUT...there need to be strict, audited, public scruteny of whatever program is used to help those who need it.
What sometimes bothers me is when people use words like socialism and liberals as if these are spawn of the devil. Every political credo has its good and bad. I like capitalism, but I also like to think my parents, or some person who lacks skills, or some girl who 'made a mistake'...won't be screwed over because of what life has dealt them. Yes, absolutely people need to be responsible for their own actions and for doing the best they can to improve their life situation, but it is hypocritical for some to think that if someone is less well off, it is because they want to be. Caring about only my needs and saying the h**l with everybody else might make me happy, but I happen to believe a healthy society means some sacrifice by those who have for those who have not.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 10:00 AM
  #70  
 
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Well, back to the lower dollar. It will help many of our exporters. I have never said it would not. American goods will be cheaper for others to buy. A higher dollar volume of exports will help industry on our side and hopefully it will help employment.

Unfortunately, manufacturers that must import raw materials will be hurt. Petroleum will be high on the list of costly raw materials. Little shifts in oil prices mean swings in stock prices.

The forecasters are saying a gradual decline in the dollar will be beneficial. A crash will not. Right now, the decline looks gradual.

I wonder, however, what the bright boys know that we don't? When in doubt, ask the audience. Collective wisdom is often more accurate.

Too bad we could not all be Warren Buffets and have made a pile by making a $12 billion hedge on a declining dollar. I guess that is why Mr. B can drive what he wants to and I keep watching oil consumption on a vintage Camry.

I know that Buffet tells the finance specialists that he does not believe in the efficient market hypothesis. If it was true, he would not be as rich.

Anybody out there agree with Mr. Buffet?
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 10:06 AM
  #71  
 
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ira, more and more people are not using a stock broker anymore. 7 bucks for a $50,000 trade is not much and can be had a great many brokerages.

And you can do charitable works without buying into socialism.

Socialism is dying, but just doesn't know it yet. Take a look at the EU and all its unfund pension requirements. That house of cards will fall soon enough.

High taxes, massive regulation and cradle to grave absolute protection is not the wave of the future.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 10:24 AM
  #72  
 
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The same concerns on this side of the Pacific, with a local flavour. For some years Australian employees have been required to pay 9% of their incomes into a superannuation (pension) fund, with a matching contribution from employers. Some feel that 9% isn't enough in view of the demographic factors already mentioned here.

In days past your retirement was funded by a government pension (paid out of general revenue) unless you had company-funded superannuation, which wasn't then generally available to blue-collar workers. The pension is still there as a safety net but is means-tested.

Apart from the looming retirement of the post-WW2 "baby boom" generation, and the likely inadequacy of many people's annuities, the biggest issue is health care costs. Currently we spend 9% of GDP on health and, as the system is one of universal coverage, the demographics mean that's going to have to rise. We still have a way to go before reaching the US's 15%-of-GDP spend, but as our pols have been telling the public for years that higher taxes are a Bad Thing, something will have to change. Probably the compulsory income tax levy that funds our public health insurance scheme.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 10:31 AM
  #73  
 
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ira, think no load mutual funds with low expense ratios. Many of the big funds manage very well for a .75% cost a year.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 10:55 AM
  #74  
 
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Back on message....it would seem that the Fed is going to let the dollar continue its slide, in order to boost exports and raise price of imports. A satisfactory resolution in Iraq would do much to improve both confidence in US economy as well as lower oil prices to what some experts believe is more rightly priced in the $30 range. What is uncertain is the driection of interest rates, higher rates support a higher dollar and fight inflation, but if you want a lower dollar...So....buy your euros now.
Free stock market tip: buy index funds, low cost and very few mutual funds consistently beat them (and if they did, over the long run, how would you know today which ones to pick). Buffett is a little different in that, yes he invests in the stock market, but he buys large chunks (or all) of a small number of companies, kind of like a focused mutual fund. My bank account lets me buy a Diet Coke, not 10% of Coke
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 11:38 AM
  #75  
 
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You are missing the point Degas. Don;t try passing off personal opinion as fact. If you have a source, site it. I would not pay 2 cents for your advice, especially given your outlandish fabrications in the past. Your claims are worthless. FYI, demand for US durable manufactured goods was down again last month according to official goverment report released today. And just as teh dollar has reached a four year low. Hmm.
nellyanne is offline  
Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 11:48 AM
  #76  
 
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Anyone whio thinks SS is some kind of welfare is really uninformed. It is a social compact. We pay into it. If voters do not like it, they can repeal it by voting in politicians who will repeal it. The same holds true for those of you who want to do away with government regulations, you know that ones that keep our air and water clean (to some small extent), keep scam artists from stealing from the elderly, attempt to keep medicines safe, keep corporations from cheating and stealing pensions, employing minors and forcing employees to work for less and more hpurs like the good olde days. Yeah, let's return to pure capitalism like in the good old days. That is really the wave of the future. Let's return to the "Robber Baron" Days, and dredge up old ideas like imposing our way of life by force on our weak enemies like in the 1890's and call that "vision" and "progress."
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 11:50 AM
  #77  
 
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nellyanne, pleased don't try to goad me into a fight. Show some holiday spirit.

Life is too short to sweat the small stuff. And don't take life too seriously either; nobody gets out alive.

degas is offline  
Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 12:02 PM
  #78  
 
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Over the past years, we Aussies have experienced a very low dollar currency exchange rate against most currencies, but now our growing economy is in a healthy state, low unemployment, strong business confidence, our little Aussie dollar is rising against most other currencies, even the Euro & British Pound, so I am extremely happy in purchasing both of these currencies for my forthcoming trip back to Europe in 2005, so its "come on Aussie Dollar come on, come on".
They are talking of our dollar being close to $0.80 US, very soon, gee I should think of a holiday in the States.
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 01:10 PM
  #79  
 
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I'm making a list, and checking it twice.

Gonna make sure there isn't a fight.

Can you kids play in the sandbox together without a quarrel?
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Old Nov 24th, 2004 | 01:16 PM
  #80  
 
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Degas. You prove my point by claiming it's "small stuff." Trying to educate you not fight you.
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