How low will the dollar go?

Jan 6th, 2004, 07:25 AM
  #1  
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How low will the dollar go?

From todays news. It looks like the thought of a European vacation this year is slowly vanishing.

"The dollar dropped to an 11-year low against the UK pound and an all-time euro low. The falls have been prompted by factors including widening US trade and current account deficits, low interest rates and the threat of terrorist attack.

In US morning trade, the dollar slumped to $1.2805 per euro for the first time before recovering slightly, and it touched $1.8280 against the pound. The pound later eased back to $1.8260, but was still two full cents up from late Monday in New York.

The euro is now homing in on the next pyschological level of $1.30. "
richardab is offline  
Jan 6th, 2004, 07:34 AM
  #2  
uuhhhh
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my sources say $1.375 to euro 1.00.
 
Jan 6th, 2004, 07:36 AM
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ChatNoir
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Good Lord, everyday somebody posts about this same tired old subject. Enough is enough - everything that can be said has already been said and said again.

Stop agonizing and either go or stay home. I'm going. Tickets and reservations done. End of story.

Post on an investment forum if you want accurate or timely financial feedback.
 
Jan 6th, 2004, 07:37 AM
  #4  
JonJon
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I still maintain that the more thinking such as that you propose (forgetting about a European vacation) there is then the fewer airline bookings which should (you would think) trigger fare sales for flights to Europe.
Will it happen? Who knows.
But this is certainly "Economics in action" in terms of supply and demand. I also wonder if a lack of hotel reservations by dollar-using toruists will cause any reaction or if those spots will simply be taken by Europeans who might not otherwise have had a chance to book.
 
Jan 6th, 2004, 07:50 AM
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Should I also sit and whine because my phone bill two years ago was a base price of $8.60 and now is $21.90? Or how much can I complain because my health insurance went up 250% in a four year period? What about the fact that my doctor who charged $30 a visit in 1995, now charges $90?
And my Florida residence flood insurance increase I can't even list without getting upset.

By the time I get to London in May, I may find the math easy. Just mulitiply the pounds by 2 and I'll have dollars. But I just need to look for other savings while there. Maybe I'll skip the Jameson's before the theatre, or hit Belgo Centraal for their early special instead of waiting till after the theatre when the price is almost double.
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Jan 6th, 2004, 08:48 AM
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It could be that Europe will not be as expensive as some of the "doomsayers" think by summer time.

If the threat of terror is still high and the dollar still stinks, it could be that airfares will be lower than normal.

Tourism throughout Europe really need our dollars. I imagine that you will be able to get some pretty good deals. I realize bargaining isn't something Germans or some other European countries are really into, but with the use of e-mails, would it hurt to try to contact the smaller hotels direct, explain the situation and see if some of these smaller places to stay will make a better offer to you than normal.

I just got an apartment owner to go from 36 Euros a night to 26 Euros a night. I simply asked in the e-mail for any help and she gave it to me.

As ChatNoir said, just go. For me, the airfare and the train travel will be covered by US Dollars.

Food and Hotel costs can be pretty well managed by making better decisions once you get there.

There will be plenty of choices that you will make while in Europe. Being casual with your spending habits might make for an expensive trip. Maybe this time, you'll simply need to look at taking the less expensive choices.

Just do it!! Go to Europe. Hav efun.
Mark
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Jan 6th, 2004, 08:49 AM
  #7  
Tat
 
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There is always bright side of the story... There must be ... Oops, here it is !
Look for the travel deals.
I've saved $1200 already without even moving a finger by booking my $399.00 tickets instead of $800.00 each for 3.

Do the same.
$270 & up -- Rome, Paris, & Switzerland on Sale (R/T)
http://www.travelzoo.com/Top20.asp?id=100133014
Source: Swiss International Air Lines

$270 ROUND TRIP ??? Are you kidding ?
Where did you ever seen anything like it ?

So,l stop worry about stuff you can do NOTHING about and think positive.

Good Day
Tat is offline  
Jan 6th, 2004, 09:03 AM
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Good deal Tat.

Seems like you have caught the bug.

Years ago, before the internet I was using courier compaies on a regular basis. I remember in 1983 I flew 2 times with a courier and 1988 and 1989, I flew three times to Germany.

Each of these trips was with a courier company out of JFK. The deal was really quite simple. The flights were usually dirt cheap. Sometimes, for a last minute flight, even free.

The deal was that the courier company used my luggage space to ship packages for their clients. I could take a carry on with me. Couldn't put any luggage on board.

Roundtrip to Germany sometimes costed as little as $100. Add in a hostel card, a great exchange rate and a Eurail pass and I was on my way.

I wonder if courier companies still exist. Any one out there use a courier company?
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Jan 6th, 2004, 12:08 PM
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Well said, ChatNoir. Also, as I keep pointing out (sorry about the dead horse thing, PETA) this isn't a lose-lose proposition for everyone, like increased oil prices. While it may be to the disadvantage of Americans visiting Europe, it's to the advantage of our European friends visiting the U.S.
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Jan 6th, 2004, 12:16 PM
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JanetG
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Looking at $1.35 per euro, this week, if theres a run. Japanese are fearful it'll drop below 105 to the yen, buying dollars like madmen.
 
Jan 6th, 2004, 12:28 PM
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capo, is PETA the organization that stands for "People Eating Tasty Animals"?

Patrick--you really made a great point.
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Jan 6th, 2004, 12:50 PM
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Only if you want to be the target of their wrath, Wren.

Patrick, first of all, I realize the point you're making. Sure you (or any of us) could whine about those things. But the difference between costs like those you mention and the exchange rate is that the exchange rate fluctuates whereas almost all other costs just go up and up and up (current mortgage rates being a nice exception!).

capo is offline  
Jan 6th, 2004, 01:03 PM
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Patrick and ChatNoir, I'm with you guys.

I'm going to Spain 1 month from today. (And counting!) Hotels are booked and listed in Euros, except for 4 days in Madrid - paid up front in $. Oh well. Flight already done - $420 DCA-Madrid-BCN-DCA.

Maybe it's just me, but if I spend $2000 or $2500 on a vacation, that difference is not a big deal.

I assume everyone on this Europe forum likes to travel in general. Instead of complaining, why don't you expand your horizons and go to South America or Canada or Africa - or tour around the US. I can't imagine that all of the US based posters here have seen all there is to see in America! I know I haven't!

Happy travels,

Karen


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Jan 7th, 2004, 05:03 AM
  #14  
Tat
 
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Yeah,
this is what I want to see , more of America. Somehow dreaming of a Grand Canyon ending up in FL for the 4th year
But thanks to Travelzoo - Europe here I come !
Tat is offline  
Jan 7th, 2004, 09:12 AM
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Tat - Yes, I DO dream of America! I am going to the Grand Canyon this fall, New Mexico this summer.

I have yet to travel to these places, or to Alaska, New Orleans, Yellowstone, San Francisco or dozens of other places I'd love to see.

When I think of my "big" vacations - those that generally last 2 weeks, for some reason I always go to another country, when 2 weeks in Alaska would be AMAZING! So, maybe time to rethink a little, that's all.

Happy travels,
Karen
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Jan 7th, 2004, 09:51 AM
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Alaska is one of the most expensive places in the US.

We paid $2.50 for a national newspaper - a daily!

If the Euro exchange rate is giving you heartburn, going to Alaska is probably not going to ease it!

On the other hand, Alaska is gorgeous! Maybe we should think more about the destinations and what they offer instead of the exchange rates or how much things really cost!
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Jan 7th, 2004, 02:26 PM
  #17  
maletas
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ttt
 
Jan 7th, 2004, 02:49 PM
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Will probably go to $1.50
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Jan 7th, 2004, 03:25 PM
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It is also favorable for US companies that export products to Europe --little guys as well as big.
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Jan 7th, 2004, 03:33 PM
  #20  
rex
 
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And whether it's related or not, it's coinciding with some very nice increases in the stock market. More than making up the difference, at least here in the recent few weeks.

Best wishes,

Rex
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