julies

Just finished reading this week's Newsweek. Their economist's column says that most economists expect the Euro to go to an exchange rate of 1 Euro to $1.50. For others from the US, what is your trigger point where you will probably stop travelling for pleasure in Europe? I'm curious.

The past few years we've travelled to Europe twice a year because even on a budget (and we are budget travellers)it was doable. We were planning 2 vacation trips this year, one next month and one in the summer. We'd done a lot of thinking about the March trip, our timing, the length of time we have available for a trip, and the exchange rate. We finally just booked tickets to South Carolina, and part of the reason for this decision was the unfavorable exchange rates. Summer still is up in the air, but if we do Europe we are now thinking perhaps about Bulgaria, Turkey, Croatia or a return visit to Romania.
These places are much more affordable than the western countries. What are you thinking?

ira

Hi Julies,

>Their economist's column says that most economists expect the Euro to go to an exchange rate of 1 Euro to $1.50.<

OTOH an equal number of experts expect it to drop to $1.15.

If any of these guys could actually predict the future value of the euro vs the dollar, they would not be spending their time working for wages.

If a week in Paris cost more than a week in New York, I might reconsider.

Flyboy

<<If a week in Paris cost more than a week in New York, I might reconsider.>>

An excellent point.

ira

Following up on that:

A few years ago, I was considering going to NYC for a 4-day trip related to a group I belong to.

I priced out the budget for travel from/to my little town in rural GA. When I was done, I thought, "Oh, my goodness, (well, not really) I could go to Paris for that".

I checked it out. We went to Paris for a week for less.

I recently checked it out again. You can still do a week in Paris, air fare from Atlanta included, for less than a week in NYC, even with the euro at $1.28.

Patrick

What am I thinking? I'm thinking it's still cheaper to travel in Europe than in the US.

This summer we'll be in Europe for 10 weeks plus. Then after we come home we'll be in Oregon and California for about 6 weeks. We'll spend as much in that 6 weeks as we will in the 10 weeks in Europe.

Rich

We had the same experience last year . . spent a week in Paris, later in the year spent 4 days in NYC . . cost just about the same!

First time I lived in London, the rate was $2.60 to the £

Rich

WillTravel

I would think more in terms of - how can I make up the shortfall so I can still go - rather than casting the issue in negative terms.

Bird

You put 10 economists in a room and you'll wind up with 11 opinions. I'm not going to rely on an economist to tell me when to travel

Christina

There isn't any realistic level it could go to that would prevent me from going to Europe. Sure, maybe if it went to 1 euro to US$10 or something ridiculous, but it won't. I don't have the luxury of so much vacation time that I can go to Europe for many weeks every year, and what I spend isn't that much that it really makes a big difference in my yearly discretionary income, to be honest. I pay for the air fare, which is one of the biggest items, in USD anyway, and those fares haven't changed much in the last few years regardless of whether a US company or Foreign company.

For example, I might spend a total of $1500-2000 on a yearly vacation to Europe, outside air fare (that's for food and hotel, transportation, etc). So, if the euro is 25-33 pct higher than a few years ago, that's a cost to me of $500-$700 or so. In my annual income, that doesn't really matter, frankly.

I don't really spend any more in Europe than I would a lot of other places, as other's have said. NYC is one example, I spend more there than in France. I would never in a million years go to Bulgaria instead of Paris to save, what, maybe a couple hundred dollars?

susant100

I've had the same thoughts now that I've spent a month planning my Italy trip.

For an idea, Bali, Thailand and even Fiji are fabulous places where the dollar goes incredibly far. After 2 weeks in Bali, our restaurant bill was $500 for 4 people..this included bottled water, soda, beer, etc.

julies

I guess I also need to state that I think way too many people are hung up on western Europe and Paris in particular. Eastern Europe is fascinating for those who want a little adventure and want to get off the standard beaten path tourist track. It is not for those who are primarily intersted in gourmet dining and upscale hospitality. RAther visiting eastern Europe gives one many new insights into historically intriguing areas. We wouldn't be making those choices just to save a buck. They are places we've wanted to visit and now might be the time to do it and save western Europe for the future again when the dollar is stronger.

Sue_xx_yy

Well, I just took a look at my spreadsheet. Bad news: total cost has increased since trip first conceived. Neutral news: not all of the increase is due to exchange fluctuation. Some things were bought in my own currency, e.g. airfare, some time ago.

Airfare, while it increased, did so independently of the euro fluctuation (more or less.)It's already bought, since I got the best deal back in September for April ( a real surprise.) Car was prepaid during a temporary recovery in rates. A plan to travel first class trains is being revised.

I think we'll be eating out at restaurants less and using delicatessens and casual eateries more. Eh, I can live with this.

Photo film and processing will be done at home, so not affected by change.

Hotel is the biggest change, unless I am prepared to decrease our hotel quality (and I'm not.)Total increase in hotel bill plus increase in sightseeing costs has increased the total trip cost by about 10 per cent.

Given inflation rate for European hotels has in my informal analysis been about 5 per cent per year, I think it is a defeating strategy to wait until the exchange improves. However, obviously I can't sustain 10 per cent increases indefinitely. I shall wait and see about years subsequent to 2004.

amp322

It is frustrating to see that our $ is getting weaker, but foreign places depending on American tourists to show up & wield their dollars do not want to lose our business. Last year, I was able to make a deal with a short term apartment rental place in Prague. They quoted me the monthly rental rate, even if I was going to stay for only 2 weeks. I ended up staying for three, but they bent over backwards to get me to stay there, and they really tried hard to accomodate me when I arrived. Bottom line: if you search & dig a little, you will probably find a good deal somewhere, because businesses need us to survive. Maybe drop down one star for your accomodations, or eat at some "local" places instead of tourist trap restaurants, or go to a supermarket to buy snacks & breakfast items. I have found that when I "live like a local" in foreign places, I can save money, as well as learn a lot about the cultute. It is a much deeper experience than riding in a tour bus.

Sue4

I usually stay in 3-star hotels in Paris, and in provincial France I do that, with a 4-star occasionally. On my upcoming trip in May to Provence, I've decided on a couple of great looking (and recommended) B&B's for part of the trip. And I think that will make up for the rise of the Euro! Anyway, I hope so, if I don't go too fancy with the restaurants (which I won't, because I'll be solo). I won't stop traveling to Europe, in any case.

amp322

PS: "cultute" is not a word, so I amend my posting to include the word "culture", instead! thanks

LarryJ

I am self-employed. I spend three months per year in Europe, mostly in France. In the last two years since the dollar has weakened against the euro I have cut costs by often renting apartments instead of staying in hotels or use two or three star hotels rather than four star, eat more picnic lunches, buy and prepare food from supermarkets, eat fewer restaurant meals and taken advantage of transportation discounts such as "France's Senior Carte". As a result my time in Europe costs no more than it did before the strong euro. If the dollar should weaken more I will pay more to do Europe because the good times I have are worth whatever it costs. Money is not the only consideration; there is also time to consider and I plan to spend as much time in Europe as I can before I take the long dirt nap. I can get more money; getting more time is above my pay grade.

Larry J

Mary_Fran

I'll keep watching and evaluating costs. I really want to see as much of Europe as I can whiole I am young enough to deal with the physical challenges. However, I am also aware that there is so much in the USA that I've never seen!

My son took me to NYC for a mother's day present in May of 2000, and it was such a memorable experience! What a fabulous city! The next year in April, my other son invited me to accompany his family on a trip to South Carolina. Again, I was just blown away by how wonderful it was - Charleston, Fort Sumpter, and fabulous beaches. I'm embarassed to say I thought beaches like that were characteristic only of those on the Pacific coast.

We've all been entranced with Europe for many, many years. However, I do think that the tourist industry there is going to need to take steps to show they really do value their US tourist business and make some concessions, or we'll start taking a new look at areas closer to home as vacation venues.

WanderingTexan

I cancelled a week sail in Croatia because of the dollar. The price was quoted in US, but we have a wedding planned in Italy and can't do anything about the exchange rate, so I am saving where I can.

Holly_uncasdewar

Amp, you said "foreign places depending on American tourists to show up & wield their dollars do not want to lose our business."

Well, they've sure got me fooled! Just this past week I emailed 2 different hotels in Venice, looking for a single room for a Monday night in the third week in March (not exactly high season in Venice). They both emailed me back quoting rates 30% above what they advertise on their own websites, and one of my original messages even had that price quote right in the message. I've since booked with a third hotel that stuck to its advertised rate (they even offered a discount when I mentioned I wouldn't require b'fast as I will be leaving in the very early a.m.). Some of these hoteliers just don't get it.

Koshka

I'll stop eating before I stop travelling.