Having an avid interest in astronomy, I have always wanted to witness the spectacle of a total solar eclipse. Surfing the net, I see a total solar eclipse will cross Cape York (including Cairns) on Nov. 13, 2012. It will occur just after sunrise that day.

My question is...given the time of day, and the the time of year, what are the chances the sun will actually be visible, i.e., not being cloudy? If the prospects are good, I'll start planning now!

Thanks, Ralph

FYI...eclipse-related link:

http://www.sydneyobservatory.com.au/...sky_events.asp

Not one of your more thoughtful posts RalphR.
How the hell would anyone know what the weather conditions are going to be in Cairns on the morning of Nov.13 2012!
Let alone if there is going to be any cloud cover during the eclipse.
How were you planning on viewing the eclipse any way, as I am sure you know it can permanently harm your vision if you look directly at an eclipse. The safest method of viewing an eclipse is to project the image on to something else & look at that.
No doubt it will be quite dark in the lead up & during the full eclipse & cloud cover won't affect this.

Webboe...read my post again, please. I asked "what are the CHANCES the sun will actually be visible....". I've never been to Cairns in Nov. I want to know if it is typically overcast at that time of year, at that time of day. A very reasonable question considering that Cairns is on the ocean (possibility for fog) and it is the start of the rainy season in the north. I suppose this sort of information is available on meteorology web sites, but I thought that one or two locals would have some general idea.

Ralph, no need to read your post again.
I have a question for you.
I don't know where you live but wherever that is, could you please tell me what the chances are that the sun will be visible, ie; not be cloudy just after dawn on November 13 2012?
I can't wait for your answer!

Not very good actually. Nov. is a gloomy time of year. You'd have a better chance in Sept. or early Oct or in May/June. Summer is bad because of morning sea fog, common that time of year.

That's the sort of input I'm looking for. I've been to Cairns in the dry season several times and know it's often clear and dry. Dont know what is typical for mid Nov.

Ok? Now go pick on someone else.

Yes but what are conditions going to be like on the morning of November 13 , 2012?
Your question not mine.
In mid November in Cairns it could be sunny, it could be cloudy, it could be raining, there might even be partial cloud cover, perhaps with some fluffy cumulo nimbus about. It definitely won't be snowing or hailing & there is little chance that there will be a cyclone or a tsunami.
I hope this helps you with your planning.

This is a pretty useful website that helps answer my question as to the chances of good weather mid-Nov

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averag...w_031011.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/ca..._history.shtml

November is still a pretty good month when it comes to average number of clear days versus cloudy days and hours of daily sunshine. Not as good as Aug/Sept/Oct but way better than Dec-Mar. It doesn't look like the month is a washout, on average - better than I expected, which is good to know.

Ralph,
Thanks for posting this.
I live on the Atherton Tablelands where we often have clouds come across low in the early morning after the rising sun has released them from the escarpment where they catch overnight. I'll have to consider moving out to Chillago or Mareeba on the evening of the 12th Nov. 2012.

I find it amazing that people develop such little idea of probability.

Yes & that info tells you as much as what I did on the 27th April, which was;
In mid November in Cairns it could be sunny, it could be cloudy, it could be raining, there might even be partial cloud cover, perhaps with some fluffy cumulo nimbus about. It definitely won't be snowing or hailing & there is little chance that there will be a cyclone or a tsunami.
You can calculate probability all you like, you will not know what the weather is going to be like on the morning of the 13th November 2012, virtually until the day dawns.
And you shouldn't look directly at the eclipse anyway so why is the clarity of sky so important?
You will, to some degree, experience the effect of the eclipse wherever you are in the region.
Having experienced a number of eclipses, (1 total in 1976) I know that it will slowly get darker & that the light becomes quite eerie & then it slowly becomes light again.
Didn't change my life but I understand the interest.

Thanks Saltuarius, glad to hear from someone who gets the concept.

I've seen a couple of near-total eclipses in my lifetime. One was 99% (it was a total eclipse on Nantucket and Nova Scotia, as sung by Carly Simon in the 70's hit "You're So Vain"). More recently we had an annular eclipse where the moon was too far away to completely block the sun, leaving a bright ring around the edge. Both times I set up my telescope to project an image of the sun back onto a screen. It worked very well, sparing our eyes.

But total solar eclipses are very elusive - there isnt another one in North America until 2017. Sure, if it's cloudy, it will still get very dark, but if it's clear, one can see the things that can only be seen during a total eclipse - stars coming out in daytime, the sun's corona (observed indirectly of course, using my telescope projection) and "Baily's Beads" the eerie light phenomenon caused by mountains on the moon. Hope it's a nice day!

My last word on the concept of predicting the weather using probability.
NASA I assume would have the most sophisticated models available to mankind in order to predict the best possible weather conditions for the launches of the Space Shuttles.
How often do they cancel launches because of weather conditions?
If NASA can't predict the weather accurately then what hope do we have?

Webboe: It's a very simple concept. it's not about predicting the weather based on probability, it's about making good decisions based on probability.

Even with the best directions one can get lost if starting from a different point.

OK if this is the case then instead of relying on statistics that tell you, on average, how many sunny & clear days there are in a given month, shouldn't you be basing your decisions on more detailed data? Such as what the weather conditions have been like on 13/11, or at least the days either side? Or the week of?
This month eg; we have had 10 cloudy days with rain in the first 11 days of the month. So based on your reasoning of probability we will only get another 2 cloudy days with rain for the rest of the month. The probability of this occuring is remote.
Also the data you are making your 'good decisions' on does not state what the conditions have been like in the mornings, which is what you are wanting to know.
Your arguments about making a decision to travel to Cairns based on the info you have at hand, and your methods of calculating probability are flawed regardless of your starting point.

Perhaps I should have calculated what the probability was of receiving a reply to my last post?

IT WILL BE SUNNY! NO CLOUD! GAURANTEED!

Okay, I know this is an old thread, but susaweno brought it to the top so I read it. And it was one of the best giggles I had all night.

Happy planning Ralph!

Here's the relevant weather statistics for the Australia 2012 eclipse:

http://eclipser.ca/

In the 1990's there was a total solar eclipse a couple of hours' drive from my hometown but the weathermen said the odds for seeing it were maybe one in five, the biggest problem being its occurrence near the horizon. As expected we got clouded out but it was still impressive, very much worth the trouble.

Go for it Ralph!

jossi

That article is very good. True the November rain would more likely be near the mountains. To increase chance of clear weather stay away from the rainforest areas.