Is it true waiting until the last minute is best?
Jan 3rd, 2007, 03:52 PM
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Is it true waiting until the last minute is best?
So I've been trying to find airfare to Europe in September under $800 (I know some of you are thinking "good luck"). Is it true that if you wait until about a month before that the price of tickets will be less? I have only flown three times and only bought my ticket once, so I don't know how these things work. Should I wait until the last minute to see if there are any super good deals or suck it up and pay now? The trip means a great deal but the dates aren't for sure yet. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Jan 3rd, 2007, 03:58 PM
#2
Should I wait until the last minute to see if there are any super good deals or suck it up and pay now? The trip means a great deal but the dates aren't for sure yet.
These are incompatible sentiments. If you buy now you have to pick dates and won't be able to change them except by paying a lot more (in most cases) or not at all. If you wait until you know dates you may pay more.
But the fares ought to be generally the same in a month or two as they are now for travel in September, so work on your itinerary and schedule and book when you're confident about timing.
These are incompatible sentiments. If you buy now you have to pick dates and won't be able to change them except by paying a lot more (in most cases) or not at all. If you wait until you know dates you may pay more.
But the fares ought to be generally the same in a month or two as they are now for travel in September, so work on your itinerary and schedule and book when you're confident about timing.
Jan 3rd, 2007, 04:05 PM
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I was asking more or less if it would be worth it to wait taking the chance of having to pay an arm and a leg instead of just paying an arm now. Thanks, I will work on my dates and keep checking around. Is September a popular travel month?
Jan 3rd, 2007, 05:13 PM
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A general rule is that prices are related to the fare class: a deep discount x fare, for example, will almost certainly cost less than a full y fare.
Among the conditions of the deep discount tickets is usually a requirement that it be bought x days before the flight. I just looked up the rules on a cheap ticket I bought, and the requirement for this fare is that it be bought 10 days prior to departure, and reserved within one day of purchase.
So if you hold off until the last minute, you will find that all the deep discount tickets are no longer available, as it is past x days prior to the flight, and you can expect to pay more for the same seat.
While things can certainly change, ignoring special sales, I don't buy an international ticket more than four months before the departure date (when fares seem to start to fall), or less than two months before the departure date (when fares seem to start to rise). I pick a target price early, and if a sale happens that meets my target price, then I pounce (and you have to be prepared to buy immediately, as sales are almost always for a limited number of tickets, and there are a lot of people looking; I would buy before even calling my wife to check her availability, lest others get the tickets before me.)
I think most airlines would rather let a seat go unsold than give a good price at the last minute; their hope, of course, is that someone will have to buy the seat and pay a much higher fare.
So firm up your dates, then start monitoring prices, but don't go into panic mode until perhaps July. Good luck.
Incidentally, while looking up the fare rules, I checked the price on a ticket from Cleveland to Rome in late February and found an attractive fare; I may have to revise my system.
Among the conditions of the deep discount tickets is usually a requirement that it be bought x days before the flight. I just looked up the rules on a cheap ticket I bought, and the requirement for this fare is that it be bought 10 days prior to departure, and reserved within one day of purchase.
So if you hold off until the last minute, you will find that all the deep discount tickets are no longer available, as it is past x days prior to the flight, and you can expect to pay more for the same seat.
While things can certainly change, ignoring special sales, I don't buy an international ticket more than four months before the departure date (when fares seem to start to fall), or less than two months before the departure date (when fares seem to start to rise). I pick a target price early, and if a sale happens that meets my target price, then I pounce (and you have to be prepared to buy immediately, as sales are almost always for a limited number of tickets, and there are a lot of people looking; I would buy before even calling my wife to check her availability, lest others get the tickets before me.)
I think most airlines would rather let a seat go unsold than give a good price at the last minute; their hope, of course, is that someone will have to buy the seat and pay a much higher fare.
So firm up your dates, then start monitoring prices, but don't go into panic mode until perhaps July. Good luck.
Incidentally, while looking up the fare rules, I checked the price on a ticket from Cleveland to Rome in late February and found an attractive fare; I may have to revise my system.
Jan 3rd, 2007, 08:57 PM
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AA is having a HUGE sale on international fares right now for travel through May 31. Fares to LHR from LAX, for example, are $358 and LAX to CDG only $518!
Check out AA's sale!
Oh, whoops- sorry, you said September.
What city are you flying out of?
Check out AA's sale!
Oh, whoops- sorry, you said September.
What city are you flying out of?
Jan 4th, 2007, 04:55 AM
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Last minute, cheap and scheduled flights don't go together - even booking a couple of days in advance of your flight can be substantially cheaper than booking on the day when airlines assume that anyone who wants to fly now is willing to pay through the nose for the privilege.
Of course it's even cheaper if you book well in advance
Of course it's even cheaper if you book well in advance
Jan 4th, 2007, 03:37 PM
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Hi srippy,
I have several suggestions. You can use both kayak.com and ITA Software (the search by month feature) to track prices and see what the lowest prices have been. Kayak will let you know what the lowest fare has been over the last 90 days, which is helpful.
You can also go to eurotrip.com and post on their message board. Don, the moderator, seems to know everything about how to get the best fares for travel to Europe.
Also, I think it might be helpful if you told fellow posters where in Europe you're hoping to fly into. That could make a big difference in whether $800 is reasonable or not. On Kayak, I'm finding fares from Cleveland to Frankfurt on Continental for $688.00.
I have several suggestions. You can use both kayak.com and ITA Software (the search by month feature) to track prices and see what the lowest prices have been. Kayak will let you know what the lowest fare has been over the last 90 days, which is helpful.
You can also go to eurotrip.com and post on their message board. Don, the moderator, seems to know everything about how to get the best fares for travel to Europe.
Also, I think it might be helpful if you told fellow posters where in Europe you're hoping to fly into. That could make a big difference in whether $800 is reasonable or not. On Kayak, I'm finding fares from Cleveland to Frankfurt on Continental for $688.00.
Jan 4th, 2007, 07:41 PM
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I saw your other thread, and you're going from Denver to Manchester (definitely not Cleveland to Frankfurt!)
I just booked a flight to Manchester from Texas for March, and the cheapest I saw was $515.00. (Wish I had grabbed it!) It looks like it's more expensive to travel from Denver, and also you're going during shoulder season while I'm going in winter.
ClevelandBrown's strategy does seem good. That $515.00 price came available in December, exactly 3 months before my trip, and it was the lowest fare of the previous several months. Now that it's two months before my trip, everything seems to be going up.
I just booked a flight to Manchester from Texas for March, and the cheapest I saw was $515.00. (Wish I had grabbed it!) It looks like it's more expensive to travel from Denver, and also you're going during shoulder season while I'm going in winter.
ClevelandBrown's strategy does seem good. That $515.00 price came available in December, exactly 3 months before my trip, and it was the lowest fare of the previous several months. Now that it's two months before my trip, everything seems to be going up.
Jan 4th, 2007, 07:53 PM
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One of the girls that I work with was telling me that tickets seem to be the least expensive about three months before. I guess I will just look every day (multiple times a day) and just buy the tickets, that will confirm the dates for sure 
. It seems that Denver is a little more to fly out of, oh well. Thanks for all of the replies.
. It seems that Denver is a little more to fly out of, oh well. Thanks for all of the replies.
Jan 5th, 2007, 04:02 AM
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Other strategies in addition to good ideas above include checking alternate airports - no alternates to Denver that makes sense to me, but London and then taking train to Manchester might be cheaper.
Day of the week might matter. Your friend who told you 3 months out is optimal time might not be taking into consideration month of travel - buying 3 months out for summer travel is very different than buying in, for example, November for winter travel.
While it is likely to be more expensive, another option is the price
Denverf-NY (JFK) and then JFK-England, possibly on different airlines.
Day of the week might matter. Your friend who told you 3 months out is optimal time might not be taking into consideration month of travel - buying 3 months out for summer travel is very different than buying in, for example, November for winter travel.
While it is likely to be more expensive, another option is the price
Denverf-NY (JFK) and then JFK-England, possibly on different airlines.
Jan 5th, 2007, 05:55 AM
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I was given the following advice on another forum:
However, do not use the train from London to Manchester. You'll need to ride train from Gatwick to London, switch to the tube, and then another train. No way!
With an international airport right in the city, you probably don't want to spend part of your trip after a long international flight taking the train from London.
However, do not use the train from London to Manchester. You'll need to ride train from Gatwick to London, switch to the tube, and then another train. No way!
With an international airport right in the city, you probably don't want to spend part of your trip after a long international flight taking the train from London.
Jan 6th, 2007, 07:59 PM
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Advice for cheap tickets is always after the fact -- it is what happened last year. There are several factors this year that MAY (PROBABLY ???) affect prices when compared to prior years.
1. Fuel prices are much higher.
2. The dollar is declining against the Euro and probably will continue to do so through the summer
3. Airlines have substantial reduced available capacity since last summer
4. The US is becoming a cheap and attractive travel for Europeans.
5. The airlines do not care if the round trip ticket starts in Europe or the US -- as long as the seat is full both ways.
6. Therefore, the prediction for summer travel is much less discounting and higher fares in general for US travelers.
7. A $1000 ticket from Denver to London this summer may be a cheap.
1. Fuel prices are much higher.
2. The dollar is declining against the Euro and probably will continue to do so through the summer
3. Airlines have substantial reduced available capacity since last summer
4. The US is becoming a cheap and attractive travel for Europeans.
5. The airlines do not care if the round trip ticket starts in Europe or the US -- as long as the seat is full both ways.
6. Therefore, the prediction for summer travel is much less discounting and higher fares in general for US travelers.
7. A $1000 ticket from Denver to London this summer may be a cheap.
Jan 7th, 2007, 10:21 AM
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fmpden,
While perhaps true for domestic US travel, point 3 in your list is simply not true for transatlantic routes.
Delta in particular has strongly increased its transatlantic service, so has Continental and USAirways just announced a raft of new services from PHL (Brussels, Athens, Zurich) for this summer.
European airlines have certainly not cut back their transatlantic service, though expansion is slower than that of US carriers.
Hope this helps,
Andre
While perhaps true for domestic US travel, point 3 in your list is simply not true for transatlantic routes.
Delta in particular has strongly increased its transatlantic service, so has Continental and USAirways just announced a raft of new services from PHL (Brussels, Athens, Zurich) for this summer.
European airlines have certainly not cut back their transatlantic service, though expansion is slower than that of US carriers.
Hope this helps,
Andre
Jan 14th, 2007, 01:42 PM
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The definitive answer to OP's question is - it depends.
Waiting to book until the last minute is like seeing something you like in a department store and deciding to wait until it goes on sale, hoping it does not sell out before then. You may luck out or may be SOL.
Fare structures are based on the same principles as any other product - supply and demand (though the yield management algorithms used by airlines would confound Einstein!). In busy travel times demand is up and so are prices.
Waiting to book until the last minute is like seeing something you like in a department store and deciding to wait until it goes on sale, hoping it does not sell out before then. You may luck out or may be SOL.
Fare structures are based on the same principles as any other product - supply and demand (though the yield management algorithms used by airlines would confound Einstein!). In busy travel times demand is up and so are prices.
Jan 17th, 2007, 03:24 AM
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I am so bummed. I have been searching for airfare every day. I finally come across a good deal and don't get the tickets bought before the price went back up. My new advice is to have my credit card ready whenever looking and jump on it the second I see a good deal. I found tickets flying from Denver to Paris and then from Rome back to Denver for $644. Now the price is back to over $800. 
I am sad but oh well, hopefully a good deal will come up again.
I am sad but oh well, hopefully a good deal will come up again.
Jan 17th, 2007, 04:12 AM
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Most scheduled airlines assume that if someone wants to book at the last minute then they are desperate to fly, therefore charge through the nose. Even booking a couple of days in advance can substantially reduce the cost of travel.
Charter airlines however want the plane filled at any cost so you can get some very low cost last minute flights (and holidays) - though it's unlikely that you'll get any of the services - meal, transfer - that earlier booking folk will get
Charter airlines however want the plane filled at any cost so you can get some very low cost last minute flights (and holidays) - though it's unlikely that you'll get any of the services - meal, transfer - that earlier booking folk will get
