bigcountry

Hey guys,

Just wondering if anyone is seeing the safari industry down as a result of the slumping world economy? IE are lodges less full or last minute deals to be had bc occupancy is low.

thanks

Bill_H

Go to www.ndutu.com and look at the availability in Feb and March ... these rooms are always reserved a year in advance (as early as June there were zero rooms available at Ndutu for this time frame) but right now there are plenty of openings ...

Ndutu is the best place in Africa to see the migration in Jan - March, so it means travel to Tanzania is really off right now, with quite a few late cancellations.

divine54

a lot of "specials" are out plus lodges/camps all over africa keep their 2008 rates.

especially americans are more hesistant to book. at least that is what i have heart from several outfitters.

i would bet especially hihg-end lodges and camps are willing to negotiate especially pre- and post peak season.

div

safarimama

I was in Kenya for 2 weeks in early December. This is "normally" the low season. However, this year the camps are really suffering also due to their own troubles starting a year ago. I was the only one at Joy's Camp and at the Mara Explorer one night; another couple joined me the other night.

At Saruni Samburu, I was the only guest among friends of the owners. At Loldia house, there were 2 other couples travelling together. Little Governors was the busiest at about a third full, but Il Moran and the Main camp were way down. Royal Mara had 2 other couples come and go while I was there.

For Christmas it was picking up some, but mostly at reduced rates for locals. To me, this is great. The local people have not been able to visit their own parks and reserves in the past due to high prices and no availability. I applaud the camp owners for encouraging the locals to come and see the animals that they must preserve for the world. Local people that I talked to in Nairobi seem to prefer the sun and fun on the coast for a relaxing vacation though. They are filling those hotels again.

Everywhere I went, the camp managers wanted to know precisely this question: When will the tourists be back? The bookings don't look good for 2009 in Kenya. They're hoping for "Obama tourists", who will come to see where his family lives and add on a safari.

I'm sure many camp owners who borrowed the funds are in deep trouble. So many new camps went up in Kenya, especially inside and around the Mara North area, soon to be another conservancy. Lot's of rumors are flying around about who is not going to be there soon because of this and that.

Maybe Eben can enlighten us in this respect: what camps are being sold and to whom? I can't get into "facts" I've heard second and third hand that may not be true.

In Kenya, on the up-side: It's been a great year for the cats! Shakira still has her 3 cubs and they were full. I saw another cheetah (not named by the BBC) with 3 five weeks old cubs and no other cars around. I've seen Honey's boys kill twice: their first ever zebra and now a full grown wildebeest and there were less than 10 cars around each time including a film crew and BBC spotters. BBC has hired spotters from Governors and a local film crew person to stay with the boys and with Shakira at all times from sunrise to sundown. At least they get the night in peace. Therefore, you can just about always find them and it's amazing that not more than a few cars hang around at any time. That's how empty the Mara is right now. One day, nobody found Shakira at all. Needless to say, every vehicle from all camps were looking for her in the afternoon.

Last summer (Sept 9), I saw 2 “foreign” male lions takeover a small pride of 3 females of the Rhino Ridge pride from a single male. The Rhino Ridge pride is so large that some lions have split and formed smaller prides. I was happy to see they are all doing well and one of the females was pregnant. I saw one female with 2 five months old cubs from the Ol Kiombo pride. One of the females from the Paradise pride is roaming around with her 2 year old son. The Marsh pride's 4 females have seven cubs; Notch is doing well with his sons across the river. After the balloon ride, in the Mara West area, I saw the Migori pride females devour some baby warthogs. So all is well with the lions.

This is more than you asked for, but I think it's related. The cats are important to the economy after all.

divine54

and let's not forget the increase of reserve fees: mara 60US$pppd. if you stay in a concervancy it's 40US$pppd plus a visit to the reserve makes 100pppd!

of course for the animals it's fantastic as they don't get bothered too much anymore!

div

thank you mama for the update! very much appreciated!

matnikstym

Mombo raised it's rates $140pp/pn for 2009 to $1770pp/pn.

divine54

okay - there are always mavericks.

if people are willing to pay these absurd rates - providers must be nuts to not ask for it ;-)

on the other hand EVEN mala mala keeps its rates "down" to 2008.

div

LyndaS

Dennis, was that an error on one of the rates (ie from 140 pppn to 1770 pppn)? No wonder I haven't looked into Mombo yet!

matnikstym

Lynda, the price went <b>UP</b> $140.00 for 2009. Was $1630pp/pn in 2008, went up to $1770.pp/pn for 2009.

I was hoping for a half-price sale, but guess that's not the case!

cary999

Heck fire, if I don't mind paying $1770, what's another $140??? Feed the polo ponies and warm up my Lear Jet Captain. I feel like a trip to somewhere, maybe Africa, maybe Mombo

regards - tom
ps - Lynn- pack up your mosquito netting and thigh high waders, we'll stop by and get you on the way

matnikstym

Tom, I booked the month of September at Mombo, see ya there?
Happy New Year!

cary999

Dang it Dennis, SO you're the one booking ALL of Mombo for the month of Sep!!! If any of your friends drop out, count me there!!!! Happy New Year!!!!

regards - tom

matnikstym

Tom-I tried to book August but AIG booked it for their executive motivational training seminars.

Temba

I don't think the camp owners and managers are even now fully aware of the golbal nature and the extent of this financial crisis. They are somewhat insulated by the normal one year in advance bookings and that many people feel they might as well have one last fling. After all many have paid deposits and not all are refundable. I think the real pinch will come when they see how few advance bookings they get for next September and how even the more affluent safari goers make alternate plans. The entire safari industry has become to comfortable with over the top rates. Likewise, visa fees and as well as the fees paid to operate a concession have increased markedly over the past few years. IMHO the tour agents, concession operators, and even the host countries are going to need to deal with this new economy or suffer as a result. I cannot quite understand why they are so out of touch with the real world, perhaps it is the nature of the business-it must be nice.
Happy New Year-Ted

cary999

Ted - I was wondering the same you said about one year advance bookings. And I also believe what Bill H said about Tanzania/Ndutu. Myself, I canceled a Feb 2009 booking at Ndutu, the stock market crash took funds I had planned on using. Hope they come back (and in my lifetime!!!)

regards - tom

Temba

Tom, I would guess that most are in the same boat. If the downturn in activity on this forum is any indication there are few new safaris in the planning stages than just 6 months ago. I know many people who have cancelled trips due to economic events. Many did not have to but still felt it was imprudent to take an expensive holiday during these times. Totally understandable but the years do keep ticking away. In my humble opinion, the safari industry had grown too agressive in their high pricing. Friends who had travelled to Tanzania and Kenya just a few years ago were appaled after recent safaris to these same countries. Evidently Botswana alone has been able to maintain the high quality safari experience but has done so by raising fees to an almost obscene level. Perhaps some good will come out of this turmoil. I have no sympathy for companies such as Wilderness, only for the poor staff that work in the camps. There is simply no good explanation for the fact that the US dollar has risen 30-40% against most foreign currencies (Pound, Euro, Rand &amp; Pula) yet the camps think they are doing us a favor by holding US demoniated rates the same as 2008. They pay their help, their supplies, and their concession fees in their native currency so by simply maintaining 2008 rates they gain 30-40% off of the top. A lot of Americans are looking closer to home (National Parks) and these are exactly the same people who had previously indicated a desire to safari in Africa. I would look for the real bargains and deals in Africa, to become available this summer and for the green season in Botswana to be a true steal next year. Just as on the plains of the Serengeti, the safari business is all about adaptation and survival of the fittest.
End of Rant-Happy New Year All
Ted

HariS

I went to the Masai Mara in Kenya in June 2008 for a short 5 day visit. I was just as &quot;Wowed&quot; as any of my trips to Botswana.

The prices went up, simply because there was a market to support it. Nothing wrong with it, if you have a business model to work with. Then comes the creation of demand through good marketing.

Right now, not just cancellations of bookings and provisional bookings - but, anyone watch the BBC show, &quot;Fast Track&quot; about a week or two ago? It basically is a travel show with regards to both business and leisure travel. In summary what they said was, that even the luxury holiday market is hugely impacted - not just the global recession with people delaying holidays, but, also people waiting for more last minute time frames to make plans due to ease of availability and better prices. This was apparently for lux holidays across the globe. Even apparently, the yacht rentals world wide have slowed down.

sandi

Hari - believe me, the yacht rental and purchases are first to go thankfully that's not one of those &quot;I must have items&quot;

Early December is always a slow period, so not unusual that many lodges/camps have few visitors. It's also the &quot;short&quot; rainy season with some camps closed.

As to the balance of the 2009 season... there will be an impact, with visitors looking for deals or booking closer to departure dates.

And, yes, I too feel the properties should hold prices at '08 levels; would also be nice to hold off on the park fee increases.

We'll just have to see what happens as we move into 2009.

atravelynn

Netting--check
Waders--check
Give the polo pony a pat for me.


The Ndutu availability quantifies the problem.

I was talking to an agent who deals with general nature travel and I was told that while US clients are not going, there has not been that much change from Europeans in Africa. Apparently the Europeans are not headed to Ndutu, though.

safarichuck

I was at Ndutu last February/March and it was packed but no more than 1/3 of the guests were American. Same the year before. So the lack of visitors this year does certainly reflect a downturn of European/British/Australian tourists as well. In my experience travel agents are never very truthful about the dowturn in travel and don't know much about travel trends outside of their own region. Also, as has been pointed out above in this thread, by holding rates at 2008 levels, most ldoges will enjoy a 30-40% increase from tourists who pay in U.S. dollars.
Chuck