Will the Euro go down?
Aug 27th, 2004, 02:59 AM
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 117
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Will the Euro go down?
We are leaving sept 13 for 16 nights in Europe and I was just wondering what others think the Euro will do. when I started planning this trip the Euro was at about $.85
per USD then went down to as low as $.80 per
USD. Where do you think it will be! Thanx.
per USD then went down to as low as $.80 per
USD. Where do you think it will be! Thanx.
Aug 27th, 2004, 03:29 AM
#4
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 17,268
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A really good forex dealer can tell you what an exchange rate will be in five minutes' time. And many of his strategic advisors will be pretty accurate about rates in six months' time.
But none of them are trustworthy about rates in two weeks, except under very extraordinary circumstances, like a government trying to defend a totally unrealistic rate. And even then they often get their fingers burnt.
The only sensible assumption under most circumstances is that rates in two weeks' time will be pretty much what they are right now.
For what it's worth, though, I'd say the fundamentals push towards further dollar decline against the Euro, unless someone changes the laws of economics.
But none of them are trustworthy about rates in two weeks, except under very extraordinary circumstances, like a government trying to defend a totally unrealistic rate. And even then they often get their fingers burnt.
The only sensible assumption under most circumstances is that rates in two weeks' time will be pretty much what they are right now.
For what it's worth, though, I'd say the fundamentals push towards further dollar decline against the Euro, unless someone changes the laws of economics.
Aug 27th, 2004, 03:39 AM
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 117
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It seems to me that the people in Europe
must make very good money, I have been looking at the price of things over there to get an idea what we will have to spend on our vacation and damn everything is expensive, laundry mats,
Restaurants, hotels, fuel, cigarettes,
parking, etc, etc, I have saved enough for all the stuff we want to do $10,000
for just under 3 weeks. The wages in Europe must be very good to live there
and still be able to go out.
must make very good money, I have been looking at the price of things over there to get an idea what we will have to spend on our vacation and damn everything is expensive, laundry mats,
Restaurants, hotels, fuel, cigarettes,
parking, etc, etc, I have saved enough for all the stuff we want to do $10,000
for just under 3 weeks. The wages in Europe must be very good to live there
and still be able to go out.
Aug 27th, 2004, 03:41 AM
#6
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,154
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"I started planning in May, was that to early?"
No, it's not. I think ira was reading it the way most people in the U.S. express it because of the "$" sign in front of the number. Your trip is fairly soon and the Euro has been sitting at $1.20-$1.23 U.S. per Euro. It probably won't change a LOT between now and your return as fundamentals tend to be factors that have an impact over longer period of time. An easing of world oil prices, an escalation of tensions, stock market fluctuations and a myriad of other things could move the exchange rate one way or the other -- but the chances of anything having a material impact on your costs from this point forward are probably not all that great. My suggestion: give yourself a somewhat conservative scenario of $1.25 per Euro. You could come out doing slightly better than that forecast and it covers some level of exchange costs.
No, it's not. I think ira was reading it the way most people in the U.S. express it because of the "$" sign in front of the number. Your trip is fairly soon and the Euro has been sitting at $1.20-$1.23 U.S. per Euro. It probably won't change a LOT between now and your return as fundamentals tend to be factors that have an impact over longer period of time. An easing of world oil prices, an escalation of tensions, stock market fluctuations and a myriad of other things could move the exchange rate one way or the other -- but the chances of anything having a material impact on your costs from this point forward are probably not all that great. My suggestion: give yourself a somewhat conservative scenario of $1.25 per Euro. You could come out doing slightly better than that forecast and it covers some level of exchange costs.
Aug 27th, 2004, 03:44 AM
#7
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,079
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There are many different prices! I don't know how many of you are traveling, but for two of us $10,000 would be at least double what we have ever spent on a just under three weeks trip to Europe. You should have a wonderful trip. But we have had wonderful trips also! (If there are many of you traveling for $10,000, of course, my remarks don't apply!)
Aug 27th, 2004, 03:54 AM
#8
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 117
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
That amount is for 2 people and includes
airfare, car rental, travel insurance,
all 4 or 5 star hotels, 1,000.00 Euro
for food, sight seeing etc, etc, I am not saying we will spend that much however, I will have that much funds to spend if needed.
airfare, car rental, travel insurance,
all 4 or 5 star hotels, 1,000.00 Euro
for food, sight seeing etc, etc, I am not saying we will spend that much however, I will have that much funds to spend if needed.
Aug 27th, 2004, 04:02 AM
#9
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,476
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It is never too early to plan and you should never feel you have to defend yourself in terms of how much you paid, or are going to spend for anything since those decisions are purely personal.
As long as the current political administration continues to pursue its very well-publicized 'weak dollar' pol;icy designed to attract foreign investment and reserve severe balance of trade deficits, the cost of a Euro will remain "high" for many people.
Trips to Europe cost money, in some cases much more than folks feel than can, or should, afford..but we all seem to find some way to get ourselves there.
Some of the things you will think are "expensive" probably don't cost any more than a night or two at the movies in the US including the OUTRAGEOUS cost of popcorn...but the memories will last forever.
Have a GREAT trip!
As long as the current political administration continues to pursue its very well-publicized 'weak dollar' pol;icy designed to attract foreign investment and reserve severe balance of trade deficits, the cost of a Euro will remain "high" for many people.
Trips to Europe cost money, in some cases much more than folks feel than can, or should, afford..but we all seem to find some way to get ourselves there.
Some of the things you will think are "expensive" probably don't cost any more than a night or two at the movies in the US including the OUTRAGEOUS cost of popcorn...but the memories will last forever.
Have a GREAT trip!
Aug 27th, 2004, 04:10 AM
#10
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 117
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
So true are your words. We went to the movies last night (CATWOMAN) $9.25 each,
shared 1 large popcorn and large soda
$7.50 shared 1 box of sour patch kids
$4.00, $30.00 to see a movie and the movie sucked. LOL
shared 1 large popcorn and large soda
$7.50 shared 1 box of sour patch kids
$4.00, $30.00 to see a movie and the movie sucked. LOL
Aug 27th, 2004, 05:01 AM
#13
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 57
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
bigboy,
My European friends get by with fewer purchases.
Dutch ride bikes & public transport.
French have a small closet of very fine & beautiful clothes.
Germans & Austrians make a fine home for themselves and enjoy it to the utmost with friends and family for cheap, yet priceless, entertainment.
In general I've seen people not only "get by" on less, but have a better quality of life IMO.
Taking a "European holiday" with other Europeans is not like holidaying (not sure if that is a word, but it should be!) with fellow Americans. Both are fantastic in their own way, but very different.
If you want to try something different next time, look into renting a small apartment with kitchen when you travel. This could cut your travel costs in half or more & may surprise you as more comfortable, fun or entertaining.
As to the central issue, I have a bunch of Ausies and Kiwis working for me that get paid in US dollars which they then convert to ausie dollars. Their income has dropped dramatically in the past year or so and they have bad habits to support.
Regards,
Craig
My European friends get by with fewer purchases.
Dutch ride bikes & public transport.
French have a small closet of very fine & beautiful clothes.
Germans & Austrians make a fine home for themselves and enjoy it to the utmost with friends and family for cheap, yet priceless, entertainment.
In general I've seen people not only "get by" on less, but have a better quality of life IMO.
Taking a "European holiday" with other Europeans is not like holidaying (not sure if that is a word, but it should be!) with fellow Americans. Both are fantastic in their own way, but very different.
If you want to try something different next time, look into renting a small apartment with kitchen when you travel. This could cut your travel costs in half or more & may surprise you as more comfortable, fun or entertaining.
As to the central issue, I have a bunch of Ausies and Kiwis working for me that get paid in US dollars which they then convert to ausie dollars. Their income has dropped dramatically in the past year or so and they have bad habits to support.
Regards,
Craig
Aug 27th, 2004, 05:03 AM
#14
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 117
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I mean when I started planning this trip
for $100.00 US dollars I could buy 85.00
Euro and it has went down to as low as
80.00 Euro per $100.00 US dollars now its about 82.50 Euro per $100.00 US dollars
for $100.00 US dollars I could buy 85.00
Euro and it has went down to as low as
80.00 Euro per $100.00 US dollars now its about 82.50 Euro per $100.00 US dollars
Aug 27th, 2004, 05:08 AM
#15
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 57,890
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
bigboy72712
In fact, you're incorrect - it's not that europeans make a lot of money. It's that most everything in the US is very cheap compared to the rest of the world. Our salaries have incredible buying power vs may other places - we have the cheapest food in the world, electronics and household goods are often half the price of what they are elsewhere and the price of cars is a joke. (I was in the UK last year and they were touting the best prices of the year - selling a Honda Accord for 20,000 pounds. Imagine more than $32,000 for a basic family sedan - who here would pay anything like that?.)
The fall of the dollar has only exacerabated the situation - but the basic fact is that we're the ones that have incredibly low prices (in terms of salaries) vs everyone else.
In fact, you're incorrect - it's not that europeans make a lot of money. It's that most everything in the US is very cheap compared to the rest of the world. Our salaries have incredible buying power vs may other places - we have the cheapest food in the world, electronics and household goods are often half the price of what they are elsewhere and the price of cars is a joke. (I was in the UK last year and they were touting the best prices of the year - selling a Honda Accord for 20,000 pounds. Imagine more than $32,000 for a basic family sedan - who here would pay anything like that?.)
The fall of the dollar has only exacerabated the situation - but the basic fact is that we're the ones that have incredibly low prices (in terms of salaries) vs everyone else.
Aug 27th, 2004, 05:30 AM
#16
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 15,749
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'll be the first to admit that due to the falling of the dollar, things cost more now in Europe than they did a couple years ago, or even a few months ago. But people get way too hung up on the exchange rate. When we were talking lira with thousands to the dollar, people were never concerned with the rate being up or down. Somehow since the introduction of the Euro people seem to think they are supposed to be equal, and if it cost more than a dollar to get a euro then that's terrible.
This summer we spend three weeks in New York, then almost three months in Europe, then a little over three weeks in Oregona and California. Clearly New York is where we spent the most, then Oregon and California. Europe was still a bargain compared to the others (and yes I'm talking the bigger cities -- Rome, Paris, London).
Better than looking at what the comparison between the currencies is now compared to before, just focus on what it's really going to cost you. I can still find a beautiful hotel room in Paris for about $150 -- way less than a similar one in New York. And I can get a great coffee latte in Rome at the corner for less than half of what I pay here at Starbucks.
I just wish people would stop trying to make the dollar and the euro equal -- they happened to be for a short while, but that is beside the point. Now if I could just get those Canadians to stop thinking that everything cost them more because they keep trying to pretend our dollar and theirs should be equal, I'd be really happy. If one more person says, "it's not so bad for Americans, but it costs us a third more. NO, IT DOESN'T. It costs you the same -- you just have different currency!
This summer we spend three weeks in New York, then almost three months in Europe, then a little over three weeks in Oregona and California. Clearly New York is where we spent the most, then Oregon and California. Europe was still a bargain compared to the others (and yes I'm talking the bigger cities -- Rome, Paris, London).
Better than looking at what the comparison between the currencies is now compared to before, just focus on what it's really going to cost you. I can still find a beautiful hotel room in Paris for about $150 -- way less than a similar one in New York. And I can get a great coffee latte in Rome at the corner for less than half of what I pay here at Starbucks.
I just wish people would stop trying to make the dollar and the euro equal -- they happened to be for a short while, but that is beside the point. Now if I could just get those Canadians to stop thinking that everything cost them more because they keep trying to pretend our dollar and theirs should be equal, I'd be really happy. If one more person says, "it's not so bad for Americans, but it costs us a third more. NO, IT DOESN'T. It costs you the same -- you just have different currency!
Aug 27th, 2004, 05:45 AM
#17
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 375
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You are leaving in just over 2 weeks. Does it really matter how much the exchange rate varies between now and your departure? Will it cause you to change your travel plans?
From looking at the history of the interbank exchange rate on Oanda since May 1, rates have ranged for USD to EUR from:
Average (119 days): 0.82259
High: 0.84930
Low: 0.80220
If you go back to 1 Jan 03 the range is:
Average (605 days): 0.85773
High: 0.96740
Low: 0.77330
If you go back to 1 Jan 01 the range is:
Average (1335 days): 0.98421
High: 1.19770
Low: 0.77330
How will this change your travel plans?
I'm going to London in October. Until now, I haven't checked the exchange rate for $ to £ in months. I now see that the rate for USD to GBP has fluctuated a bit since last October when I was there:
Average (332 days): 0.55865
High: 0.60480
Low: 0.52230
Last year, it was at 0.60090 on the day I returned home. Today, it's at 0.55680. (Or, last year one GBP was worth $1.66 and today it's worth $1.80.) I'm going anyway. I mentally use a factor of $2/GBP for my planning anyway so if it goes up, it goes up. I can stress about it but since I can't change it, that seems rather pointless.
From looking at the history of the interbank exchange rate on Oanda since May 1, rates have ranged for USD to EUR from:
Average (119 days): 0.82259
High: 0.84930
Low: 0.80220
If you go back to 1 Jan 03 the range is:
Average (605 days): 0.85773
High: 0.96740
Low: 0.77330
If you go back to 1 Jan 01 the range is:
Average (1335 days): 0.98421
High: 1.19770
Low: 0.77330
How will this change your travel plans?
I'm going to London in October. Until now, I haven't checked the exchange rate for $ to £ in months. I now see that the rate for USD to GBP has fluctuated a bit since last October when I was there:
Average (332 days): 0.55865
High: 0.60480
Low: 0.52230
Last year, it was at 0.60090 on the day I returned home. Today, it's at 0.55680. (Or, last year one GBP was worth $1.66 and today it's worth $1.80.) I'm going anyway. I mentally use a factor of $2/GBP for my planning anyway so if it goes up, it goes up. I can stress about it but since I can't change it, that seems rather pointless.
Aug 27th, 2004, 05:48 AM
#18
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 455
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Patrick,
I understand completely what you are saying. - When I travel, I like to look around "grocery stores" (it may seem weird, but I find it a perfect way to understand a culture is by what they buy
) Anyway, I know people keep saying how London is so expensive, but I didn't find it any more so than a big city in the US. If there pound is like our dollar to them, then they are paying about the same for cereal, eggs and milk etc. that I pay. When I go out to lunch here in Atlanta, I pay an average of $8. Guess what- it is an average of 8GBP over there too. ... So it may be expensive to ME, but NOT to people who live there. It's all relative.
I understand completely what you are saying. - When I travel, I like to look around "grocery stores" (it may seem weird, but I find it a perfect way to understand a culture is by what they buy
) Anyway, I know people keep saying how London is so expensive, but I didn't find it any more so than a big city in the US. If there pound is like our dollar to them, then they are paying about the same for cereal, eggs and milk etc. that I pay. When I go out to lunch here in Atlanta, I pay an average of $8. Guess what- it is an average of 8GBP over there too. ... So it may be expensive to ME, but NOT to people who live there. It's all relative.
Aug 27th, 2004, 06:09 AM
#19
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 423
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hi
The fact is the € has gone down! Earlier in the week the € was at 1.238 but today it's 1.207!
Greenspan speaks today but, the facts are that growth has slowed, coupled with oil prices rising again and the uncertainty on our GDP in the 3rd quarter, will probably make the € stronger again.
The fact is the € has gone down! Earlier in the week the € was at 1.238 but today it's 1.207!
Greenspan speaks today but, the facts are that growth has slowed, coupled with oil prices rising again and the uncertainty on our GDP in the 3rd quarter, will probably make the € stronger again.
Aug 27th, 2004, 06:29 AM
#20
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,556
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
FromAtlanta : What you are saying is even truer if a Londoner in your position also earns the same as you, (dollar for pound). Does a pharmacist or doctor or construction worker or bus driver in London make the same number of pounds salary as that same occupation would in the USA in dollars ?
