buongiorno

I went to a seminar the other day where a well known economist spoke and he was very confident we will continue to see the euro rising against the US dollar for at least the next year. So, if you can lock in rates on future travel, it's probably a smart idea. As I'm booking travel for a spring trip to Italy I am seeing a lot of "pay now" options. You just need to weigh how far in advance you are going because your money has a time value as well.

bob_brown

As oil goes up, the dollar goes down.
As oil goes up, fuel costs go up.
As oil goes up, our balance of payments goes farther out of balance.
As our balance of payments becomes more negative, the dollar goes down.

As oil goes up, other currencies replace the dollar as being sought after as a hard currency. The British pound and the euro are very strong!!

Now, what caused oil to go up? I cannot blame automatic transmissions entirely, but SUV's don't help. But that is not the real reason. Can anybody say the I word? And it is not India.

indytravel

Hey you leave Indiana out of this. We aren't the most populous state in the Union and don't drive the most SUV's.

rj007

Good one Indy.

Infotrack

China's higher consumption has led to more demand and thus higher oil prices. However, oil will not stay at the current high levels for long, in my opinion. Oil prices will begin a gradual decline over time.

As the US economy picks up steam (and high oil price is certainly having an effect), the dollar will get stronger, and the dollar will gain against the €, again just my lowly opinion.

Economists seem to be wrong more than they are right.

--Marv

AHaugeto

Sigh. All this blaming SUVs for the world's ills drives me batty.

What about conversion vans? Trucks? Pickup trucks?

What about the millions of people who don't change their oil in their cars regularly, ensure their tires are inflated to the right pressure, and do any of the other minor work associated with getting the best mileage out of their current vehicle?

What about the McMansions being built one after the other (often for only two people) to heat all winter and cool all summer?

What about pleasure water craft?

What about ATVs?

What about massive riding lawnmowers that many don't need?

It's an unfortunate reality that SUVs are an easy target, and probably often true that many drivers could get by with different vehicles, but come on, we live in a capitalist consumer-driven society, and if consumers want SUVs then that's what they're gonna get. That's the way it works, regardless of people's angst/agida over vehicles-slash-status symbols. The gas-guzzling status symbol is nothing new (and many will always feel a desire for them - lust is part of our auto-loving culture, and God knows I'd love to have a '66 Mustang) but now that they're off the ground a bit people started this us-versus-them mentality. And unless people are willing to squawk about all the other energy- and oil-sucking items listed above (and drive hybrid vehicles, too, come to think of it) then knock off the SUV ranting, please.

Sigh. End of MY rant. Back to mocking 2-month-olds in Vegas!!

rj007

For me, the exchange rate is irrelevant. The $ has been all over the place in my 9 trips to Europe and I have had 9 great trips. And I will be there again in a couple of weeks. Of course, it would be nicer if the $ were stronger, but stay at home until the exchange rate improves? Not a chance.

buongiorno

Not that any of you are incorrect but the primary reason the US dollar is so weak and getting weaker is the growth of the US deficit which cumulatively over the existing administration id probably over 2 trillion dollars.

beachbum

I'm not reading that anyone made the SUV claim, AH, but sinc you brought it up, it's a pretty good bet that the ones driving them are the same as live in the McMansions, have boats, ATVs, huge lawnmowers, etc.

PalQ

I've been traveling to europe since 1969 and have heard these warnings many times and they often don't wash, in fact the opposite happens. Interest rates going up in the US vs Europe may be a better harbinger of whether the dollar rises or falls - higher interest rates attract more investment to US, dollar goes up. The low rates for getting euros in the states plus fees may negate any savings you hope to realize and in any case the euro would have to rise significantly to realize any significant savings; better to economize once you're there. I pay no attention to such predictions, which, if the gnomes of Zurich also thought so the euro would already be appreciating. Personally can't see euro going much higher.

Ryan

If he were a well known and trusted economist, he would have come prepared with slides and charts that show EXACTLY the opposite point to the one he made. Any economist of real value knows full well to reference the theory of "On the Otherhand....."

buongiorno

Well, actually I've heard that the postion of Economist was created to make weathermen look good!

bettyk

Yeh, doesn't John Kerry's billionaire wife have an SUV? Oh, but he doesn't drive it...

FlyFish

A man wanted to know what 1 plus 1 is, so he consulted a mathematician. The mathematician told him ?1 plus 1 equals 2, of course.?

Not completely satisfied, he next asked an astrophysicist, who responded that it depended upon whether the universe was an open or closed space and that, depending on which you chose, 1 plus 1 really could be either infinity or zero, respectively.

Now completely confused, the poor man finally consulted an economist, who responded: ?What would you like it to be??

walkinaround

quote>>>>

All this blaming SUVs for the world's ills drives me batty.

What about conversion vans? Trucks? Pickup trucks?

What about the millions of people who don't change their oil in their cars regularly, ensure their tires are inflated to the right pressure, and do any of the other minor work associated with getting the best mileage out of their current vehicle?

What about the McMansions being built one after the other (often for only two people) to heat all winter and cool all summer?

What about pleasure water craft?

What about ATVs?

What about massive riding lawnmowers that many don't need?
<<<<<

you don't get it...it's all part of the same american dream lifestyle that is sending us into a heap of trouble.

as for trying to time your bookings according to some projected worth of the dollar, silly pursuit.

Traveler863

PalQ is exactly right, as interest rates go up so will the dollar.

gusto

Buy international oil stocks. They have done phenomenonally for me. Try it, you might like it!

hopscotch

Good day to you, Buongiorno,
If the well known economist was so very confident that the euro would be rising against the dollar he would not be giving his secrets out to the public. He would be borrowing every cent he could to place his wager. Actually the euro/dolar rate stalled out many months ago. If anyone knows for certain where it is going from here thay would be the next billionaire.

platzman

I'd love to know what this well-known economist was saying about the stock market in the first quarter of 2001.

FauxSteMarie

Buongiorno is absolutely correct.

George Bush's policy of paying for the Iraq war with tax cuts means the Bureau of Engraving will have to print money to pay the bills. That means inflation, folks--and I do mean mega inflation.

Economists know that inflation is coming and that is why the dollar is worth so little right now. The dollar will continue so long as Bush is the president and continues his totally crazy financial policies.

And, the reason oil prices are so high is that we have to pay for oil with devalued dollars.