EU outbreak Avian Flu H5N1- SE France
Feb 25th, 2006, 04:18 AM
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EU outbreak Avian Flu H5N1- SE France
Outbreak in turkeys and ducks; southeastern France. While no human cases of bird flu have been reported in France (or elsewhere in the EU), it is kind scary that this disease has already being able to mutate to humans and taken 92 lives already. I am heading out to France (Provence), staying at a rural destination. Care to share thoughts on precautions? Any comments?
Feb 25th, 2006, 04:32 AM
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The topic has been discussed on TV and in the papers for weeks now. Hundreds of dead birds in Germany, state of emergency delclared on Rügen, with the army helping where they can. A number of birds found dead at Lake Constance too. Politicians discussing the possible rate of fatalities for humans and if stocks of tamiflu are sufficient. Will the world cup be cancelled? It may only be hysteria. But if well know politicians publicly declare that they bought medication for themselves from abroad, because they legally cand buy it at home, their fear must be extreme...
Feb 25th, 2006, 04:56 AM
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I wouldn't let it interfere with my travel plans. As far as I know all human fatalities have had close contact with infected birds. I do not believe that there is a proven case of human to human contact.
If H5N1 mutates to become a human pandemic strain, then it will arrive wherever you are soon enough anyway.
If H5N1 mutates to become a human pandemic strain, then it will arrive wherever you are soon enough anyway.
Feb 25th, 2006, 05:05 AM
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This heightened fear of "bird flu" is unjustified. There is no greater chance of human mutation this year than any other. All cases I've read about thus far involved people with close contact with birds. Yes, sooner or later, another worldwide epidemic of one kind or another will occur, as they have before.
If 92 people have died, that seems a very tiny number in proportion to the total worldwide deaths yearly from flu.
If 92 people have died, that seems a very tiny number in proportion to the total worldwide deaths yearly from flu.
Feb 25th, 2006, 05:23 AM
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Viajero2 -
I live in Provence (in a rural area) and precautions have been taken here since the first outbreak in Turkey.
All domestic fowl have had to put in enclosed buldings.
The bird hunting season was closed early to avoid human contact with migrating birds.
Special game wardens have been patrolling all wildlife preserves (the Camargue, for example) daily to check for dead birds... the birds die within 48 hours once they've contracted the virus.
Many of the smaller bird preserves have actually rounded up their birds and put them indoors...which was quite a job, leaving the outside area to the migrating birds, but avoiding contact with theirs.
Cooked fowl and eggs are totally safe... humans need close contact as it's a respiratory virus.
So far Japan is the only country that has banned the import of fowl from the EU.
So the only thing I can suggest as an extra precaution while you're here is not to kiss any birds, chickens, geese, ducks....
Patricia
I live in Provence (in a rural area) and precautions have been taken here since the first outbreak in Turkey.
All domestic fowl have had to put in enclosed buldings.
The bird hunting season was closed early to avoid human contact with migrating birds.
Special game wardens have been patrolling all wildlife preserves (the Camargue, for example) daily to check for dead birds... the birds die within 48 hours once they've contracted the virus.
Many of the smaller bird preserves have actually rounded up their birds and put them indoors...which was quite a job, leaving the outside area to the migrating birds, but avoiding contact with theirs.
Cooked fowl and eggs are totally safe... humans need close contact as it's a respiratory virus.
So far Japan is the only country that has banned the import of fowl from the EU.
So the only thing I can suggest as an extra precaution while you're here is not to kiss any birds, chickens, geese, ducks....
Patricia
gt; 
Feb 25th, 2006, 10:00 AM
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Really appreciate the good advice, much specially Patricia who have share some really good first-hand info. Do agree that as many precautions one can take, a pandemic flu will find you sooner or later...
Feb 25th, 2006, 01:06 PM
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Hmm … 92 deaths in a population of 6.5 billion … heavens, that's an incidence of over 0.0000014538 percent! Head for the hills!
The incidence of rabies is about 1000 times higher than that of human bird flu, and it is 100% fatal once symptoms appear. Are you afraid of rabies?
The incidence of fatal traffic accidents is 13,000 times higher than that of human bird flu. Are you afraid of being hit by a car?
If you must be scared, be scared of things that are worth being scared about—and stop watching CNN.
The incidence of rabies is about 1000 times higher than that of human bird flu, and it is 100% fatal once symptoms appear. Are you afraid of rabies?
The incidence of fatal traffic accidents is 13,000 times higher than that of human bird flu. Are you afraid of being hit by a car?
If you must be scared, be scared of things that are worth being scared about—and stop watching CNN.
Feb 25th, 2006, 01:19 PM
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I'll be watching Fox, Fox and only Fox from now on. Yes, right!!! No matter if they're showing "Family Guy, Simpsons, American... " or whatever. Only For News broadcast the TRUTH. All other stations on the planet are lying, da.. bast... Thanks so much for finally telling the truth to me and all mankind, I'm so grateful, thanks, thanks, thanks 1.000.000 times and more!
Feb 25th, 2006, 02:00 PM
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AnthonyGA: That's only so far, and before the virus mutates to be communicable between humans. Not to say that will happen, but don't forget that the 1918 flu killed more than WWI. Nothing any of us can do about it, of course, and it's certainly not a reason to cancel travel, unless you were touring bird farms or something.
Feb 25th, 2006, 02:28 PM
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<< this disease has already being able to mutate to humans and taken 92 lives already... >>
At the risk of overstating what has already been clearly said, this is NOT a mutation, which has happened to make it possible for 92 cases (fatalities) to have occurred... in humans <i><u>who have had close contact with infected birds</u></i>.
The mutation - - currently only <i>hypothesized</i> to be a possibility in the "near term" (translation: decades) - - which could pose a challenge to human health would be for human-human transmission.
Avoid flocks of birds where avian flu has been diagnosed in your travels. Especially individual birds which appear lifeless or already dead.
Best wishes,
Rex
At the risk of overstating what has already been clearly said, this is NOT a mutation, which has happened to make it possible for 92 cases (fatalities) to have occurred... in humans <i><u>who have had close contact with infected birds</u></i>.
The mutation - - currently only <i>hypothesized</i> to be a possibility in the "near term" (translation: decades) - - which could pose a challenge to human health would be for human-human transmission.
Avoid flocks of birds where avian flu has been diagnosed in your travels. Especially individual birds which appear lifeless or already dead.
Best wishes,
Rex
Feb 25th, 2006, 02:46 PM
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>translation: decades
Isn't it like winning in the lottery, it could happen today or in a decade, or maybe not in our lifetime, but if it happens tomorrow because of our mistakes? Someone wins every week-end! With the enormous rate of mutations happening it's not only likely but rather sure the virus will adapt given time if it meets a human flu virus. If you could prevent this happening now, wouldn't you???
Isn't it like winning in the lottery, it could happen today or in a decade, or maybe not in our lifetime, but if it happens tomorrow because of our mistakes? Someone wins every week-end! With the enormous rate of mutations happening it's not only likely but rather sure the virus will adapt given time if it meets a human flu virus. If you could prevent this happening now, wouldn't you???
Feb 26th, 2006, 01:57 AM
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There's nothing we can do to prevent it. Flu viruses mutate when they mutate; it's not a result of anything we do.
Bird flu might mutate to a form easily transmitted between human beings an hour from now, or a century from now, or never. We have no control over that. Additionally, there is very little that we can do unless and until it does mutate (we cannot prepare vaccines until it has done so, for example).
I rather doubt a repeat of the 1918 pandemic, simply because it's statistically unlikely. But any flu mutation could conceivably cause a pandemic. There's just no way to know, and no way to prevent it—and so it's rather pointless to worry about it. It's like another planet smashing into the Earth: it might happen, it probably won't, and we cannot prepare for it or do anything about it … so why worry?
Bird flu might mutate to a form easily transmitted between human beings an hour from now, or a century from now, or never. We have no control over that. Additionally, there is very little that we can do unless and until it does mutate (we cannot prepare vaccines until it has done so, for example).
I rather doubt a repeat of the 1918 pandemic, simply because it's statistically unlikely. But any flu mutation could conceivably cause a pandemic. There's just no way to know, and no way to prevent it—and so it's rather pointless to worry about it. It's like another planet smashing into the Earth: it might happen, it probably won't, and we cannot prepare for it or do anything about it … so why worry?
Feb 26th, 2006, 02:11 AM
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>We have no control over that. Utter nonsense!
Problem is, mutations don't just happen or don't happen! ONLY! if the virus meets a human flu - Virus (Guess where that would be), his DNA can mix with it. This may create a far more dangerous virus. What you need to do to PREVENT this from happening.
Problem is, mutations don't just happen or don't happen! ONLY! if the virus meets a human flu - Virus (Guess where that would be), his DNA can mix with it. This may create a far more dangerous virus. What you need to do to PREVENT this from happening.
