We are staying in Yosemite from July 15th through the 18th and were hoping to take Tioga road up to South Lake Tahoe on the 18th. Are we being realistic that Tioga Road will be open by then?

Moved to United States board and tagged for California

I should be, but if not, head over Sonora Pass, which just opened. Sonora Pass is beautiful too.

The latest opening day since 1933 is July 8th.

https://www.monobasinresearch.org/data/tiogapass.php

Even after the road opens, there could be "issues" due to snow melt runoff on both Tioga Road and elsewhere in Yosemite N.P. If you were planning any hikes in the Valley, Tuolumne or Hetch Hetchy, you'll have to keep an eye on conditions and damage assessments as they evolve over the next many weeks.

https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/wildcond.htm

Maybe.

https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tioga.htm

Maybe.
My eyeball analysis of the opening dates of the last 30 years tells me the opening date will be somewhere between around 4th of July to as late as the end of the month. This is based solely on the snowpack level on 4/1, which was 2 months ago and a non-mathematical analysis of 30 years of data.

Even if it IS open -- there are likely to be multiple repair and construction projects over the entire route since the winter was so long and so heavy. They will have lots to fix - there are bound to be delays.

A part-time Eastern Sierra local just told me that Tioga Road will probably not open this year. Authorities say definitely will not open, but the local thinks they may change their minds if road damage isn't as bad as anticipated.

This would be the first time in at least 90 years that the road doesn't open. Wow!

We are also being told that Angeles Crest Highway is likely to remain closed for the entire summer due to storm damage.

https://www.facebook.com/AngelesCrestHighway/