Inakauaidavidababy

https://www.nps.gov/havo/learn/news/...r_advisory.htm

VIDEO: Volcano Community Told To Expect Explosions, Ash

A week after Kilauea eruptions start, scientists say no end in s - Hawaii News Now - KGMB and KHNL

sylvia3

Again, the steam explosion might not happen. Might be, according to the video, minor ashfall in Volcano village...but referring to it all as "danger zone" is overstating things. This volcano has been erupting in the east rift zone continuously since 1983, and when it gets near people/buildings, it gets attention. In 2014, Pahoa was threatened, but not ultimately affected. Kapoho in 1960? Not so lucky.

Inakauaidavidababy

Well gosh, if a community is invited to a standing room only emergency meeting in which many were turned away and warned that the ash could cause vision and respiratory problems, and only Madame Pele will decide how far the boulders travel and how far the pellet size lava will travel, and they decided to close the park until further notice makes me an alarmist. Well I'm fine with that. A danger zone doesn't have to be catastrophic to be of great concern. I am in the camp with the volcanologist who saw the odds are in the favor of a steam explosion. Hence the closing of the park. Or are you still saying the park is open. Just trying to keep it real. I am not being an alarmist.

sylvia3

I'm not "still saying" anything of the kind (and didn't). "Madame Pele" in this case is a volcano, and reasonable estimates can be made (on the basis of science) where ejecta go, and how far particulates are dispersed. There isn't a petulant goddess throwing rocks.
This "danger zone!!" beathless partial reporting and speculation is what those who are trying to disseminate correct information dread. Fear mongering helps no one. Meetings of locals for preparedness do.

sylvia3

Btw, no one has disputed the probability of a steam explosion if/when ground water is reached. Deflation has been occurring in Halemaumau since May 1, and that was considered a likelihood from the outset. It could occur tonight, mid-May, or not at all. People should certainly be prepared (hence public meetings).

lauramsgarden

The problem for us first time visitors is that not really knowing the geography it is hard to tell how worried to be. Our trip is exactly a week from today to Kailua-Kona, even by my extravagant standards we've spent oodles to make this happen (a family gathering to celebrate our youngest son's college graduation). I did get trip insurance just in case so am hoping that if we had to cancel we could get most of it back. ( seem to be Hawaii cursed - last time we were planning to visit I broke a foot the day before and had to cancel) but of course our vacation is small potatoes compared to those whose homes are in danger/destroyed. So for those who understand such things:
1. are we in danger staying in Kailua/Kona on the beach (tsunami?)
2. would the enjoyment factor be ruined by VOG or the air quality if the geothermal plant explodes
I truly don't want to cancel - but I also don't want to visit at a time of crisis for the island
thanks

sylvia3

Right now:
The trades are keeping the vog away on the western side.
The Kailua-Kona area is not otherwise currently affected by the volcano activity.
The east rift zone down to the coast, the area with the fissures and eruptions, is primarily causing problems for people in subdivisions there and now the greater Puna area. The national park is closed because an explosion in the crater on Kilauea's summit, due to dropping lava levels meeting groundwater, is expected.
So, the southeast area and the park have the closures, the rest of the island is fine.
Of course, hurricane season starts soon😀

sylvia3

The geothermal plant's pentane stores have been moved from the site, and any well problems would be local.
Tsunami warning systems are in place; doubtful, but no one can ever be sure!

sylvia3

The geothermal plant's pentane stores have been moved from the site, and any well problems would be local.
Tsunami warning systems are in place; doubtful, but no one can ever be sure!

TJM_70

We are here right now and located approximately 25 miles south of the park in the Ka'u district. Our flight here, on United, from San Franciso to Kona was about half full. It's the first time I've been on a flight in at least 5 - 7 years that was this empty. Many of our friends / family thought we might cancel, we never even considered it.

Anything can happen. But that's anywhere, any time really. A few weeks ago, a surprise asteroid capable of really messing things up surprised scientists... https://www.livescience.com/62313-as...ed-sooner.html My point is that it's easier today to be informed than ever before - life is full of unseen and unknown risks every day. At least to some degree, the risks of Kilauea are known. If your trip is planned, why not still take the trip?

lauramsgarden

Thanks everyone, appreciate the help. And TJM_70, I know, sometimes there's such a thing as knowing too much. Unfortunately I learned early in life to be a worrier and it's hard for me not to try to understand every eventuality. I'm working on it, still, it makes sense to me to at least try to understand what is happening and possible permutations. So coming from a very landlocked state let me ask another first time visitor question - if the Tsunami sirens go off, other then praying and trying to drive inland, what should one do?

sylvia3

A big tsunami from a major earthquake elsewhere in the world headed for Hawaii would have a lot of advance warning time (hours). (The last warning we were in years ago had us up on the hill for several hours watching what ended up being akin to a not-very-high tide.) A local earthquake might generate a tsunami warning, but ditto the results. There would be nothing like the inundation of the Indonesian or Japan events of recent history that took people by surprise (and the Japan one was just too big for everyone to prepare for, despite warnings).
I mentioned tsunami rather tongue in cheek. There are no guarantees in life, but Hawaii tsunami monitoring and warning systems are pretty good (satellites, sirens, cell notices, etc.)
i suggest checking out the Big Island tourism (official) sites for reassuring information.

sylvia3

Btw, tsunami evacuation signs are posted where needed, and you would follow civil defense instructions in the unlikely event (as you would anywhere in the U.S.).
we're enjoying gorgeous sunshine and blue skies and soft breezes right now (Waikoloa), and the snorkeling has been wonderful the past few days. Upcountry golf also!

MmePerdu

My only experience of a tsunami was in 1964, a warning because of a big earthquake in Alaska. I lived right on the water in Sausalito but on the 3rd floor so figured I was ok. Well, it did arrive but, instead of coming in, the water went out, sucked out of San Francisco Bay by the force of the water going down the coast. So the result was mud where there was usually water, the only casualty a derelict ferry boat that was tied up in sight of our apartment that went out with the water and had to be towed back in. Tsunamis come in many forms, not all of them life threatening.

sylvia3

I have a bachelor's and a Master of Science in Geology, a Ph.D. in hydrology, and a decades-long interest in volcanology. Saying that there is no goddess petulantly throwing rocks at random is hardly something that any thinking individual could object to.

just27

Okay. But, back to the original question. Would you cancel an upcoming trip to the Big Island? I'm thinking, not. Having changed my June vrbo reservations at the Kapoho tidepools, to Waikoloa, I'm feeling okay about being beachside on the Kona Coast, and Kohala Coast. Looking at the seat assignments on my Hawaiian Airlines flights, they're still as full as they were when I booked. Do my friends and family think I'm nuts for still choosing to vacation alongside an erupting volcano ... well, yes, actually!

Inakauaidavidababy

Yes just27. I would definitely go tomorrow to Kohala. I love the area and there is so much to explore. I just wouldn't book In VV and Puna, both areas I love.
Actually there is some new mandate that says rentals in much of puna are to shut down immediately

sylvia3

Just27, the local news just reiterated that most of the island is functioning normally. At VNP, particulate emissions from a steam explosion at Halemaumau crater would fall within an approx. 1/5 mile radius, and ashfall could be dispersed much farther. Lava erupted from fissures is only is the east rift zone.
I just confirmed a visit for my daughter, and there's no way I would want her anywhere near an unsafe environment.

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sf7307

We went to Istanbul in 2013 during the Taksim square "riots". Friends and family thought we were nuts. It turned out to be a lot of nothing - there were huge demonstrations and fire hoses and more in the square, but if you were a mile from the square you would have had no idea it was even happening but for news reports on TV. We even went to Taksim to see what was going on (but didn't stay past the appointed hour when the police were supposed to, and did, show up). My point is, even though this is terrible for the people who live in its path, it seems to be pretty localized in its effect. In answer to the original question, I would not change my plans unless they were to stay in the local area.