Karl, say it isn't so...
#3
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 68
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Any idea of if this is going to hit land (e.g., Florida)? I have a vacation planned for Florida at the end of next week and my wife is telling me to look at other options. I think Jeanne will miss the Naples area but I don't know much about Karl.
#7
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 350
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5 day track model here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap.../171008.shtml?
And from the NHC 5 a.m. discussion:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../170830.shtml?)
"NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap.../171008.shtml?
And from the NHC 5 a.m. discussion:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../170830.shtml?)
"NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD."
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#8
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 4,713
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I think the noaa site is the best. Besides reading the public advisory, click on the "Discussion" and the Maps.
The discussion of Jeanne looks like it might lose steam after landfall in the rough terrain of Hispanola.
As for Karl, I just read that it should be of hurricane Force within 10 hours or so. At 5 AM it was already up to 65 Mph. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../170227.shtml?
However, when I looked at the map, if it was to go West/Northwest wouldn't that bring it closer to land? Right now it's just to the East of S. America...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...IF/171008W.gif
The discussion of Jeanne looks like it might lose steam after landfall in the rough terrain of Hispanola.
As for Karl, I just read that it should be of hurricane Force within 10 hours or so. At 5 AM it was already up to 65 Mph. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../170227.shtml?
However, when I looked at the map, if it was to go West/Northwest wouldn't that bring it closer to land? Right now it's just to the East of S. America...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...IF/171008W.gif
#9
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,130
Likes: 0
I hope not, Austin. I saw on CNN this a.m. that the "cone" for Karl shows it heading pretty much north away from any of the islands. Of course, one never knows for sure what these things will do.
Jeanne is also projected to take a turn to the north before it reaches Florida, therefore supposedly not impacting the US mainland, either.
Guess only time will tell.
Jeanne is also projected to take a turn to the north before it reaches Florida, therefore supposedly not impacting the US mainland, either.
Guess only time will tell.
#11
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,130
Likes: 0
Actually, it's moving west now, and expected to turn west-northwest, but it's far enough out there that it will still be to the east of the islands before finally turning due north.
Now, let's just hope this prediction is correct.
Now, let's just hope this prediction is correct.
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luvtravelin2
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Apr 5th, 2004 08:45 AM



