Gambling for Dummies
#24
Joined: May 2003
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The first thing any reputable gambling book will point out is this: gambling is entertainment. If you expect to win, or you need to win for whatever reason, you shouldn't be gambling because you don't understand it well enough.
Second rule: there is no such thing as a 'hot streak' or 'cold streak'. Every time a die is cast, every spin of a roulette wheel, the chances of any particular outcome are random and unaffected by previous outcomes. (The Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that streaks exist out of step with known odds).
Second rule: there is no such thing as a 'hot streak' or 'cold streak'. Every time a die is cast, every spin of a roulette wheel, the chances of any particular outcome are random and unaffected by previous outcomes. (The Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that streaks exist out of step with known odds).
#25
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 191
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Craps is the most intimidating looking game there is, but is by far the most fun and addicting game in Vegas!!! When you hear a group of people cheering, 9 times out of 10 it's at the craps table.
It will take 2 or 3 times playing to begin to get an idea of what is going on. Go to a $5 table (if available) during the day when not a lot of players are there (or do what I did and have a couple drinks in you...no fear!) Ask questions and be sure to place a couple bets for the house (ask them how, they will happily tell you!) I won $1,000 first time I played (okay, I stood at the same table for 8 hours, in heels!) Time flies when you are winning $$$!
Have a blast...the best city to have FUN
It will take 2 or 3 times playing to begin to get an idea of what is going on. Go to a $5 table (if available) during the day when not a lot of players are there (or do what I did and have a couple drinks in you...no fear!) Ask questions and be sure to place a couple bets for the house (ask them how, they will happily tell you!) I won $1,000 first time I played (okay, I stood at the same table for 8 hours, in heels!) Time flies when you are winning $$$!
Have a blast...the best city to have FUN
#26
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,143
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Couple comments:
Ted: Blackjack is the one game where everything that occurs in the present affects the future as long as you aren't using a CSM. Deal 4 Aces, there are 4 less in the remainder of the shoe. You don't have to really count for this to matter, either, your probablilty streaks in Blackjack are dampened because if you get a run of bad cards (no 10's or Aces) the longer you play that shoe, the probability increases that they will show up and 10's and Aces favor the player not the dealer.
Kath: I've never dealt but have colleagues that have and it's not exciting. You're standing all day through long swing shifts, pit bosses are ready to pounce on you if you drop a card, misshuffle, mispay a player, I think EVERY time I've sat at a table in Vegas for a few hours, the dealer made a mistake and the pit bosses were generally jerks about it, you have to deal with players blowing smoke in your face, getting drunk and obnoxious, blaming you for their losses, most players don't tip and ALL tips at 90% of the Vegas properties are pooled and split across all shifts so the guy working the graveyard shift where there is little action gets the same tip as the dealer working the evening hustle and bustled bustin' a$$ for decent tips. They get paid minimum wage +tips, usually about $30-50k depending on what property and what games they work. Now, the cocktail waitresses make $60k-120k and that guy out front the opens the taxi door for you - $65k. The dealers are low on the casino staff totem pole - sounds exciting but no thank you!
Ted: Blackjack is the one game where everything that occurs in the present affects the future as long as you aren't using a CSM. Deal 4 Aces, there are 4 less in the remainder of the shoe. You don't have to really count for this to matter, either, your probablilty streaks in Blackjack are dampened because if you get a run of bad cards (no 10's or Aces) the longer you play that shoe, the probability increases that they will show up and 10's and Aces favor the player not the dealer.
Kath: I've never dealt but have colleagues that have and it's not exciting. You're standing all day through long swing shifts, pit bosses are ready to pounce on you if you drop a card, misshuffle, mispay a player, I think EVERY time I've sat at a table in Vegas for a few hours, the dealer made a mistake and the pit bosses were generally jerks about it, you have to deal with players blowing smoke in your face, getting drunk and obnoxious, blaming you for their losses, most players don't tip and ALL tips at 90% of the Vegas properties are pooled and split across all shifts so the guy working the graveyard shift where there is little action gets the same tip as the dealer working the evening hustle and bustled bustin' a$$ for decent tips. They get paid minimum wage +tips, usually about $30-50k depending on what property and what games they work. Now, the cocktail waitresses make $60k-120k and that guy out front the opens the taxi door for you - $65k. The dealers are low on the casino staff totem pole - sounds exciting but no thank you!
#27
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 718
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Loki: I only used dice and roulette as examples, which are all random all the time.
In the grand scheme of statistics, however, even BJ is without streaks. While certain shoes will become more or less favorable as cards appear, the chances of a favorable or unfavorable shoe are even over time. More to the point, the chances of winning during any one hour or one evening are the same. All small swings in odds of a few good hands at the end of a shoe eventually blur together over time.
Would be different if you could stand by tableside and count cards then jump in for the last couple hands of every favorable shoe. But it doesn't work that way.
In the grand scheme of statistics, however, even BJ is without streaks. While certain shoes will become more or less favorable as cards appear, the chances of a favorable or unfavorable shoe are even over time. More to the point, the chances of winning during any one hour or one evening are the same. All small swings in odds of a few good hands at the end of a shoe eventually blur together over time.
Would be different if you could stand by tableside and count cards then jump in for the last couple hands of every favorable shoe. But it doesn't work that way.
#28
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 154
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Ted... I have to disagree..your correct to point out that over the "long run", the house always will come out ahead, but to say streaks don't happen is incorrect. You can win 10 hands in a row..hot streak, or loose 10 in a row , cold streak...sure, over time they even out, but thats not the point.
#29
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 90
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Black Jack is your best bet <(no pun) for beating the house. Don't stick to slots. It is boring and to win any money you have to sit at a machine for an hour. Or you could go at 3 in the morning, slip the manager 50 and ask him which machine is hot. If you win..give him a cut. Slots is how casinos make all their money...you will get bored. roulette is fun and it is a good 50/50 game
#30
Joined: Jan 2003
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I agree and disagree that each role of the dice is unaffected by the previous roles. Physically speaking, you're right there is no impact. But, the odds/payouts in craps are tied to the probability of a number being rolled. If I roll the dice 100 times, it is more likely than not that I'll roll 7, significantly more often than say a 4 or 10.
Every time I roll the dice without rolling a 7, increases the probability, which I'd define as the expectation of an outcome, that I'll role a 7 on my subsequent role.
Regardless of the logic of it, every craps player will absolutely swear that tables go hot and cold. Call it collective karma, losing the mojo, or gut feel, but streaks do happen. That said, when I'm in Vegas, I'm there to have fun, not to analyze every roll of the dice.
Every time I roll the dice without rolling a 7, increases the probability, which I'd define as the expectation of an outcome, that I'll role a 7 on my subsequent role.
Regardless of the logic of it, every craps player will absolutely swear that tables go hot and cold. Call it collective karma, losing the mojo, or gut feel, but streaks do happen. That said, when I'm in Vegas, I'm there to have fun, not to analyze every roll of the dice.
#31
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,143
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Ted, although jumping on and off tables would get you in trouble, doubling and halving your bet will typically not. When the shoe goes high positive count, doubling your bet will help your play even in the long run. Vice-versa on a negative count shoe, of course. I agree on your stance with every other game but BJ is a different story.
#32
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 1,084
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Ryan is right but he's wrong. (Gambler's logic.)
Of course, streaks occur. To say otherwise is nonsense. Now, as for one roll of the dice affecting another and the probablility of a 7 coming up in 100 rolls, that's a little off.
Yes the PROBABILITY is higher, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. There's something call the Law of Large Numbers, which says the more tries you make, the closer you'll get to the actual probability. So if you flip a coin a billion times, you have a very good chance of getting near 500M heads and 500M tails. But the likelihood of a 50-50 split over 100 flips is very low.
Oh, and if we're assuming you play correctly, craps has the most favorable odds for the player, not blackjack, especially on craps tables that offer double odds.
Of course, streaks occur. To say otherwise is nonsense. Now, as for one roll of the dice affecting another and the probablility of a 7 coming up in 100 rolls, that's a little off.
Yes the PROBABILITY is higher, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. There's something call the Law of Large Numbers, which says the more tries you make, the closer you'll get to the actual probability. So if you flip a coin a billion times, you have a very good chance of getting near 500M heads and 500M tails. But the likelihood of a 50-50 split over 100 flips is very low.
Oh, and if we're assuming you play correctly, craps has the most favorable odds for the player, not blackjack, especially on craps tables that offer double odds.
#33
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,143
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k_9,
With all due respect, your analysis of craps vs. blackjack incorrect. Give a read at wizardofodds.com.
Most Vegas shoe games have an edge of .4066% playing basic strategy blackjack. You can get a better edge at Monte Carlo which will offer surrender from a shoe, and maybe at Binions where they have hand dealt games but I'm not sure if they're screwing with the other rules on that game.
A craps don't pass bet is the best bet on a craps table with a house edge of .455% with 2X odds.
It's kinda rare to bet don't pass, not to mention exlusively bet the line without addition come or place bets which have a greater house edge.
If you were at a place like Casino Royale which used to offer 100X odds (not sure if they still do), you can almost elliminate the house edge and have a much better game odds wise than blackjack but the catch is you have to wager a minimum of $101 on each bet!!!
With all due respect, your analysis of craps vs. blackjack incorrect. Give a read at wizardofodds.com.
Most Vegas shoe games have an edge of .4066% playing basic strategy blackjack. You can get a better edge at Monte Carlo which will offer surrender from a shoe, and maybe at Binions where they have hand dealt games but I'm not sure if they're screwing with the other rules on that game.
A craps don't pass bet is the best bet on a craps table with a house edge of .455% with 2X odds.
It's kinda rare to bet don't pass, not to mention exlusively bet the line without addition come or place bets which have a greater house edge.
If you were at a place like Casino Royale which used to offer 100X odds (not sure if they still do), you can almost elliminate the house edge and have a much better game odds wise than blackjack but the catch is you have to wager a minimum of $101 on each bet!!!
#35
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 46
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From another dummy gambler...I like Roulette. I lost 20 bucks on the slots in like a minute, and decided right then and there I would learn a different game. Blackjack seemed too difficult because 1. I cannot do simple math quickly in my head, and 2. if you sit in the last seat, or take a hit when you shouldn't, you throw off the whole table and I don't want anyone mad at me, especially when money is involved! Roulette is so simple, you can get $20 bucks in chips and if you only bet the minimum, it can last for hours. Also, your bets are yours, no matter what you do you will not be affecting others at the table.
If you are there to win big money, learn something else. But if you are there just for a good time, to get some drinks, chat with some folks, and not have to think at all - go for roulette.
If you are there to win big money, learn something else. But if you are there just for a good time, to get some drinks, chat with some folks, and not have to think at all - go for roulette.
#36
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 718
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I'm always amazed at how many people believe as Ryan does, that if you see a coin tossed 3 times in a row and it's heads every time, that the odds of a tail increase.
Simply not true.
Basic statistics.
As for roulette, it's statistically the fastest way to lose money in LV of the major games (slots, BJ, craps). Has the biggest house advantage.
#37
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 11,449
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Probablity is the expectation of an outcome. It's not a guarantee. If you roll the dice 99 times without rolling a 7, the probability of a 7 on the 100th roll increases simply based on the fact that the odds for rolling a 7 are greater than for any other number. Is it a guarantee, of course not but the odds in craps are based the expectation of a result, a 4 vs. a 7, for example.
#38
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 556
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Ryan, you say "...the probability of a 7 on the 100th roll increases..."
Why does the probability increase? It doesn't.
The probability of rolling a total of 7 with two dice is greater than the probability of rolling any other number. However, the probability is constant from one roll to the next and won't increase or decrease, regardless of what's gone before.
Why does the probability increase? It doesn't.
The probability of rolling a total of 7 with two dice is greater than the probability of rolling any other number. However, the probability is constant from one roll to the next and won't increase or decrease, regardless of what's gone before.


