we are planning on a day trip to the Big Island (from Oahu) to see the volcano, I know that there is no guarantee that we will even see the lava flowing... but what are our chances?
Is it worth the day anyway just to go to the volcano park anyway even if we dont see the lava?

would you recommend an Air tour to see it from a plane instead, or is it way better from the ground to actually walk on it???

I believe Volcanoes National Park is worth seeing even if you do not see flowing lava. For example, the steam and sulphur vents are usually active and the huge craters, lava flows, &tubes will leave a lasting memory. There is also an impressive free video showing active volcanoes inside the VNP visitor center.

Here is a link to mlarson's trip report describing what you are contemplating:
http://www.fodors.com/forums/threads...1&tid=34508469

I was on the BI in February and unfortunately there was no remotely accessible lava at that time. So disappointing.

The highlight of our trip? Volcano National Park. There is so much to see there anyway. I did the Kilauea Iki trail hike and that was a PERFECT way to get a close-up view of the best features... amazing lush rainforest and then stark black lava. The path goes across a still steaming crater floor. Amazing! Getting these close-up views was miles ahead of just driving up to the overlooks and driving on.

We even went down to the end of the chain of craters road and saw the year-old lava and all the "No Parking" signs buried in the lava. Also worthwhile.

I like this site for several things, but they give a great update on the lava and TONS of really recent pictures to look at. There are also links to aerial tours.
www.arnottslodge.com

I'm going to try and post a trip report soon but just in case the lave was flowing great June 5-11. It was a 2-3 mile hike out and even if you don't sneak down to the lava the view behind the ropes is still amazing.

We were on the big island about 2 weeks ago. We drove to the end of the Chain of Craters Road and walked what seemed like forever over the lava rocks. Our group was all 50+ (in age), but we managed quite well. It was difficult, but sooooooooo worth it. It was just about dusk when we arrived at the area where you could see the lava flowing down into the sea. It was nothing less than awesome to see the earth being created. We stayed until just about dark & then began the trek back. It was more difficult in the dark, especially concentrating on your feet and where to step. We were all very tired, but exhilarated at the same time. It was truly a once in a lifetime experience. If the lava is still flowing & within 1 to 2 miles from the end of the road, it is definitely a must do. Check the website for current eruption updates. Enjoy.