aggiemom

I've been watching the weather in Amsterdam and Germany for several weeks now (I have it updated daily on My Yahoo). According to my books, I was expecting it to be (all temps in Fahrenheit) in the low 50s to high 60s but it seems to be anywhere from mid 30s to high 60s and it rains quite a bit. For example, today in Koblenz it's low of 37 and high of 54 and raining. Is this the normal variation in weather? (It seems to mimic the weather in Texas where I live - unpredictable.) Can someone give me some first-hand experience? I'm packing clothes to be worn in layers but is a lined raincoat warm enough?? Do I need to bring warmer sweaters, etc.?

Tulips

Averages are a pretty useless guide for packing. The weather is so unpredictable that time of year. April 30 is Queens day in Amsterdam, and from past celebrations, I know that it sometimes rains all day, but sometimes people are walking around in shorts too. It's pretty cold for the time of year at the moment.
A lined raincoat would be fine, and some light sweaters.

ncgrrl

When I was in Amsterdam in early May a couple of years ago, the daily high was 8C (I think I converted that to 52F) but the WIND was bitting. Bring something that could handle the wind. I think is sleeting for a few minutes one day during a rain storm. But I had a good time and enjoyed my time there.

Somewhere on this board is a thread about what you didn't get until you were there. Mine was it's windy in The Netherlands, the land of the windmill.

AisleSeat

we are form Seattle which has weather that tracks pretty much the same as Amsterdam and central Germany. I am sure you will find it cooler than Texas at this time of year.

We know in both Seattle and Europe to take something like a shell in case of rain and a polar fleece that you can use to layer for warmth. You may need the extra in the morning but not later in the day so take someting you can take off and stuff into your backpack later.

Keep your feet dry with waterproof shoes or at least a good coating of paste and wax before you go. If you can take a second pair it gives you the option of letting one pair dry out as you switch off to the other one.

We were just in the alps of Southern Germany last week and with the exception of one day of rain and one day of wet sloppy snow that stuck on everything but the highways it was very nice.

aggiemom

Thank you to Tulips, ncgrrl and AisleSeat. Your comments were very helpful - I'll just have to bring more stuff than I had hoped and figure on layering it on or taking it off. PS: Aisle - thanks for reminding me to pack my waterproof walking shoes!

michmoore

I live in northwest region of Bavaria and the weather in here is very hard to predict. It can be chilly and rainy one day and sunny and warm the next. Just prepare for any type of weather here - especially in the Spring. The weather forecasters can't even seem to predict correctly at times.

Peep

I live in Munich and definitely agree with the last poster! The past 3 days were rainy and high of maybe 50, today is sunny but still chilly, tomorrow ?? Bring a rain coat, for sure.

rex

<<Averages are a pretty useless guide for packing.>>

Huh?

Up until 1-2 days prior departure, they are the ONLY useful guide to predicting what clothes to pack, assuming that weather dictates your choices in clothes.

Would you advise that someone pack for travel, based on a single anecdotal experience of one individial, especially if that person experienced ABOVE average, or BELOW average weather during a particular week, in one specific year?

I don't understand religion, but I understand a whole lot less... the rejection of basic science and mathematics, in describing the world.

The most likely weather in your destinations will, on average, ressemble the average weather, compiled from a century of experience, for the time period you're looking up.

A weather forecast from one day before you depart will help you modify that information, based on historical averages.

Duh.

Best wishes,

Rex

aggiemom

Thanks michmoore and Peep. It really helps to hear from someone who lives there. Sounds like weather there is exactly like where I live in north Texas - totally unpredictable. After living in southern California for 20 years, this weather stuff is hard to get used to. We'll be in Amsterdam, Mosel area, northern Bavaria and Munich. You'll recognize us - the Americans with the bikinis underneath our parkas, with galoshes on our feet and babushkas on our heads - yikes! Actually, as long as we're reasonably prepared nothing is going to stop us from having a great time. Thanks to all who have helped me with this trip. Peace.

logos999

What you should consider in you approximation of expected weather patterns is that the statistical standard deviation of many important climatic variables at a given period in the central european region is a lot larger than in more southern or northern regions of Europe. As a result the error in forcasts based on statistics is considerable and might not lead to proper choices in clothing in this given period. ;-)

In short: be prepaired for anything within the given long time max and min values for that period. New extreme points are rather unlikely.

logos999

After 3 rainy days ist rather cold but sunny today

Tulips

I'm just saying that looking at overall averages for a month doesn't help in an area with unpredictable weather. For where I live, the average high for April is 13 celsius, average low is 5. But we've had snow in April, and we've also had 25 degrees celsius.
Off course you look at the weather forecast for the area before you leave.

logos999

>The most likely weather in your destinations will, on average, ressemble the average weather

Not really, think again and check your statistcs lessons from college. Imagine a situation with lots of extremes, a) 50% far below average, b) 50% far above average... Most likely a or b will be true. The "average" result is highly unlikely. Basic science shouldnt be rejected, but basic science leads to the conclusion to better be prepared for any outcome and pack an additional sweater

TracyB

I just got back from a week in Amsterdam the day before yesterday..It was chilly, as usual, but maybe it will warm up by May..It is always safe to bring warm clothes when travelling to Amsterdam..I wore a fleece vest and a wind breaker most of the time, but when the wind came up, it got quite cold..A few days it warmed up and that was quite a treat..

rex

<<Imagine a situation with lots of extremes, a) 50% far below average, b) 50% far above average... Most likely a or b will be true. The "average" result is highly unlikely.>>

This is just simply NOT the case with weather. While some phenomena in nature are <i><b>bimodal</b></i> in distribution - - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimodal_distribution if you need a refresher on this - - monthly temperatures (highs, lows or averages) do NOT fit this pattern anywhere on earth, as far as I know. It just defies common sense - - to have a month when the high is &quot;typically&quot; in the 40's, say... 40% of the time, and in the 70's for 40% of the time - - but uncommonly in the mid 50's!?

I'm glad (but amused) that aggiemom is now &quot;at ease&quot;... giving up, and thinking that the weather is simply unpredictable, and unknowable.

It's <i><b>predictably</b></i> likely to vary from one day to the next, or one week to the next - - which is quite unlike, say... Santa Barbara, for example.

But on average, it will tend <i>towards</i>... ummm... surprise, surprise... the <i>averages</i>.

ejkonz

Good Grief ... what a litany of scientific stuff ... spent the first three weeks of May in and around Amsterdam last year and the weather was beautiful! Shirtsleeves (short) in the daytime and a light sweater when the sun went down (which incidently isn't until after 10:00 PM). Pack comfortable clothes and pack a light jacket or sweater and you'll be fine. If if rains, buy a cheap umbrella (picked one up in London for under $5.00).

MelissaHI

I have to agree that it's unpredictable. I did the same thing you did the last time I went to Munich....tracked the weather via internet religiously before I left. I packed mostly for cold weather, with a couple of warm weather items. When I got there, the weather was supposed to be chilly, but it was hotter than Hawaii! I was sweating like a pig! Then the next day, since I didn't want to suffer like the day before, I put on shorts &amp; a tank top and went off on a tour.....and it was cold &amp; rainy. I froze.

logos999

Imagine, you have high pressure and low pressure weather patterns which change erraticly. Now in a &quot;high&quot; situation the average daily max temperature will be cosiderably higher than in a &quot;low&quot; situation. You can only estimate the likelyhood of both situations. The average temperature does not take this into account. This is the main problem with averages in temperatures at such places. They give average temperatures, which are highly unlikely to exist. You have a problem to calculate a weighted average.

Grasshopper

I've been in Amsterdam in nearly every month and I can say that whether it's been hot or cold or windy or still it's rained every single trip. At least one day. Maybe it's just my (bad) luck, but take it for what it's worth.

aggiemom

Thanks again everyone for your continued efforts on helping me predict my weather. Rex, logos, you've taken time to explain your points of view and I do appreciate and respect your knowledge and experience from previous posts. I really am happy now with knowing that it IS unpredictable. I've learned that after 3 years in north Texas where one morning you wake up and it's 39 degrees but by 5:00 PM it's 92! Anyway, I guess I really wanted to know if there was a &quot;rainy season&quot; or seasonal winds like the Santa Anas, or le Mistral. Again, thank you all. We leave in 11 days and I'll post my meteorological findings when I return!