What are people's view on the US dollar for next summer? Will we see a rebound or another big dip?
Nov 9th, 2004, 04:07 PM
#41
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I just got a world map from the National Geographic society and it strikes me how small the western world is in comparison to the rest of the planet. Although this is the Europe forum one can make one's travel money go further by venturing out someplace other than Europe while th Euro/Pound etc are stronger than the US dollar.
Traveling more in the country or in Eastern Europe may help your budget if you still prefer to travel in Europe.
I personally have been bearish on the US dollar since 2001 and like Warren Buffet have placed much of my financial capital outside the USA for the time being. I doubt that we will have much good news for the US dollar while the current administration is in place although I do not expect huge further devaluations versus the Euro unless there is some large negative event in the world such as oil being sold in other currencies than the dollar. I suspect the dollar will range in the $1.15 to $1.50 Euro exchange rate over the next several years but no one really knows. My personal betting is that we will be in recession in 2 or 3 years and our dollar will be valued somewhere lower than it is now. I recognize that this is a non professional personal opinion but I am using this financial world view to order my investments. I do not however worry much about currency exchange rates while planning for travel within a year as it is unlikely that we will see a major , say > 15% change in dolllar valuation over that time. Travel wise I am heading to Bali and Hong Kong next week and am looking into Peru, Argentina and the south of France next year. Luckily we have spent a considerable amount of time in the more expensive areas of Europe over the past 6 years so we can now turn to other foreign destinations while our dollar is weak.
Traveling more in the country or in Eastern Europe may help your budget if you still prefer to travel in Europe.
I personally have been bearish on the US dollar since 2001 and like Warren Buffet have placed much of my financial capital outside the USA for the time being. I doubt that we will have much good news for the US dollar while the current administration is in place although I do not expect huge further devaluations versus the Euro unless there is some large negative event in the world such as oil being sold in other currencies than the dollar. I suspect the dollar will range in the $1.15 to $1.50 Euro exchange rate over the next several years but no one really knows. My personal betting is that we will be in recession in 2 or 3 years and our dollar will be valued somewhere lower than it is now. I recognize that this is a non professional personal opinion but I am using this financial world view to order my investments. I do not however worry much about currency exchange rates while planning for travel within a year as it is unlikely that we will see a major , say > 15% change in dolllar valuation over that time. Travel wise I am heading to Bali and Hong Kong next week and am looking into Peru, Argentina and the south of France next year. Luckily we have spent a considerable amount of time in the more expensive areas of Europe over the past 6 years so we can now turn to other foreign destinations while our dollar is weak.
Nov 9th, 2004, 10:01 PM
#42
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travelwoman, I don't mean to rain on your parade, but your comment "I read similar predictions a year ago yet it didn't happen" has been bugging me all night. So I looked it up. Last October the dollar was 1.1714 and today?
IT DID happen.
IT DID happen.
Nov 10th, 2004, 09:52 AM
#43
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Read. Weep. Repeat. Al Queda's stated goal is to bankrupt America. Some believe that's in monetary terms, some think otherwise, but the "security" and "safety" of the US dollar as currency is indeed declining.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...rubin_dollar_3
BC
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...rubin_dollar_3
BC
Nov 10th, 2004, 10:35 AM
#44
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Interest rates are already heading back up in the USA and Europeans are getting worried about exports with the dollar so low.
As an aside, millions of americans re-finaced home loans and "saved" enough to fund a very nice trip to europe.
I even got a low 4% loan on a great pick-up truck!
As an aside, millions of americans re-finaced home loans and "saved" enough to fund a very nice trip to europe.
I even got a low 4% loan on a great pick-up truck!
Nov 10th, 2004, 11:13 AM
#47
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Today news said that it now takes $1.30US to buy $1.00E.
US interest rates expected to rise again and also after the 1st of the year.
Europe is concerned about the strong Euro as it is hurting their exports.
For travel IMHO I would budget for a weak dollar and than if one can afford to go, just do it!
US interest rates expected to rise again and also after the 1st of the year.
Europe is concerned about the strong Euro as it is hurting their exports.
For travel IMHO I would budget for a weak dollar and than if one can afford to go, just do it!
Nov 10th, 2004, 02:00 PM
#49
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Hello there Ms. Travelwoman
I too am no spring chicken, approaching my ninetyeeth year on the Lord's good earth. I have seen the world my dear and it can be rough to travel. I say the time to travel is in our youth. These days they have wonderful television programmes that display the wonders of Europe. They are in vivid colors and far exceed what the himan eye can imagine from a bus or a park bench. Plus with our wonderful economy, you can enjoy all the lovely foods from around the world right in your own palace, even baggettes and boudin! I know you like to think of youself as "travelwoman" but if you have not done it pre-arthritis, I personally think you are better off taking the travel-channel route! What with that crabby miserly Scottsh girlfriend on your back whining about the dollar, and your ratchety bones? Lady, believe me, you will only be dissapointed. Moreover, you will be exhausted each night at your age and in your condition. I know I have heard of several of our generation being hospitilized or worse! Some of not returned I am afraid. And you know they won't dare take your Medicare card there! They have that awful socialist medicine and you may not make it waiting on the lines that go for blocks. Don;t think for a second that they care about the elderly either. Those young thugs will knock you and stamp on you and take your measly pennies and dollars. Being an American there is dangerous too, and in your feeble condition you can't even defend yourself. So my advice tou dear "travelwoman" is stay home, order in and get cable. You will be far more comfortable and at your age comfort is what it is all about! Belive me, I know all about it. These days a trip to the powder room is a major ordeal. I think if you take this course, your relatives will also be happy. You need to save the dollar so they won;t be burdened with the expense of caring for you in the home and for the burial and other arrangements. No matter how much money you have managed to save with your New Endland frugality, who knows how long you might go on in poor condition and how much it might cost. and you best thank Mr. Bush for out fine healthcare systems and that you can getv the finest television specials in the world!
I too am no spring chicken, approaching my ninetyeeth year on the Lord's good earth. I have seen the world my dear and it can be rough to travel. I say the time to travel is in our youth. These days they have wonderful television programmes that display the wonders of Europe. They are in vivid colors and far exceed what the himan eye can imagine from a bus or a park bench. Plus with our wonderful economy, you can enjoy all the lovely foods from around the world right in your own palace, even baggettes and boudin! I know you like to think of youself as "travelwoman" but if you have not done it pre-arthritis, I personally think you are better off taking the travel-channel route! What with that crabby miserly Scottsh girlfriend on your back whining about the dollar, and your ratchety bones? Lady, believe me, you will only be dissapointed. Moreover, you will be exhausted each night at your age and in your condition. I know I have heard of several of our generation being hospitilized or worse! Some of not returned I am afraid. And you know they won't dare take your Medicare card there! They have that awful socialist medicine and you may not make it waiting on the lines that go for blocks. Don;t think for a second that they care about the elderly either. Those young thugs will knock you and stamp on you and take your measly pennies and dollars. Being an American there is dangerous too, and in your feeble condition you can't even defend yourself. So my advice tou dear "travelwoman" is stay home, order in and get cable. You will be far more comfortable and at your age comfort is what it is all about! Belive me, I know all about it. These days a trip to the powder room is a major ordeal. I think if you take this course, your relatives will also be happy. You need to save the dollar so they won;t be burdened with the expense of caring for you in the home and for the burial and other arrangements. No matter how much money you have managed to save with your New Endland frugality, who knows how long you might go on in poor condition and how much it might cost. and you best thank Mr. Bush for out fine healthcare systems and that you can getv the finest television specials in the world!
Nov 10th, 2004, 02:36 PM
#50
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NellyAnne, I never thought about the danger of it all. Do you think it would be obvious that I am American. I'll be damned if someone tries to mug me and take what little Euro my measly dollars give me!!! Ill kick them in the bijoux royales if they try!
Nov 10th, 2004, 02:58 PM
#52
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You may have travel insurance, but who will be caring for you? It won't be your friendly New England family doctor if you are 3,000 miles from home. It will be some cold-hearted sociolist anti-American. Good luck to you my dear but remember there is always the television route. When our parents were young, they didn't habve that option at our age!
Nov 10th, 2004, 03:07 PM
#53
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Surely they would be caring, the doctors I mean. Why do you think they would be anti-American? I am strong 73 year old women and healthy as an ox. As far as a my doctor is concerned, he is from Cameroun. So much for the New England doctor, Nelly Anne.
Nov 10th, 2004, 08:06 PM
#60
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Well, the US dollar news was not too good early today when the 1.30 level was breached. Then a timely report on the balance of payments and a rise in the US interest rates reversed the trend.
If we get the balance of payments into positive territory from the US perspective, I think the dollar will strengthen a little. But our staggering debt will keep the dollar depressed because foreign investors, as noted earlier, are scared of us.
Anybody asked lately how much foreigners own in US Treasury securities?
I think that number should be be upsetting, but most people don't understand it anyhow, or care.
But for what it is worth, here are the numbers.
The dollar value of US treasury securities owned by foreigners is $2,806 billion. How does that grab you?
Let's see that is $2,806,000,000,000
I cannot count that high. Is that $2.8 trillion bucks worth of US Treasury securities owned overseas?
If everybody dumped them rapidly, we would be in a hell of a fix.
There is only one way we will pay that off: print money. And what does printed money mean? Inflation? You got it.
Save your Confederate money boys, the South's gonna rise again!
Or to be a little more blunt, the US dollar of today will equal the value of a Confederate dollar of 1870!!
You really think $1 will again equal 1? in your lifetime? Not in mine it wont!!
How about in your childrens' lifetime? Maybe, if they are under 40 and live to be 70.
If we get the balance of payments into positive territory from the US perspective, I think the dollar will strengthen a little. But our staggering debt will keep the dollar depressed because foreign investors, as noted earlier, are scared of us.
Anybody asked lately how much foreigners own in US Treasury securities?
I think that number should be be upsetting, but most people don't understand it anyhow, or care.
But for what it is worth, here are the numbers.
The dollar value of US treasury securities owned by foreigners is $2,806 billion. How does that grab you?
Let's see that is $2,806,000,000,000
I cannot count that high. Is that $2.8 trillion bucks worth of US Treasury securities owned overseas?
If everybody dumped them rapidly, we would be in a hell of a fix.
There is only one way we will pay that off: print money. And what does printed money mean? Inflation? You got it.
Save your Confederate money boys, the South's gonna rise again!
Or to be a little more blunt, the US dollar of today will equal the value of a Confederate dollar of 1870!!
You really think $1 will again equal 1? in your lifetime? Not in mine it wont!!
How about in your childrens' lifetime? Maybe, if they are under 40 and live to be 70.
