I need to book two RT tix NYC / Paris for July 2007, my travel dates are fixed. I’ve used various fare calculators (including airline sites) and am finding about $1000/person (including fees, taxes, etc.) the best price to date. If CheapTickets is showing a fare that’s confirmed on the Continental Airlines site, are the Travel Gods telling me to “Go for it!”? Due to my fixed dates, is it crazy to wait any longer to book? Is it crazy to think that there might be sales for July? This is the first time I’ve done this, and I need some help! Thanks very much!! (I’ve also posted this on the “Europe” board.)

Have you tried the "consolidator sites" like kayak.com or orbitz.com?

I don't think there's much hope of a sudden windfall, so now is probably as good a time as any to grab whatever you can get.

Hi Robespierre, thanks for your insight about waiting--or not waiting. I have checked Kayak and it shows the same Continental fare. I'm not an experienced traveller, and am trying not to let a lack of savviness make me jump the gun OR lose an opportunity. BTW, this is my first time posting, the Fodor's board is a GREAT resource!

Saw a price of $841 on Air India. Non-stop Newark to Paris, if you want to go from Newark. (Although I'd guess that if you're considering Continental, you must be leaving form Newark.)
Saw this price on Kayak.com. But I'm sure you can go directly to the Air India site.

Hi kenav, I saw that Air India price too. I googled Air India and read some pretty vivid accounts of bad experiences (i.e. "Never again!&quot. I figured the price difference was worth it. Thanks!

Also try farecompare.com and airfarewatch.com. I find both of these a little bit better than Orbitz.

For some reason fares to Paris, at least from the midwest as that is what I am checking, have shot up dramatically these past two weeks. I believe based on the past 2 years experience that they will go down yet. Not cheap but not as high as they are today. Keep checking all the airfare sites daily and hopefully you will see something that works. There is no huge advantage to booking early anymore.

I saw rbnwdln's post and looks like we're in a somewhat similar situation. I really appreciate the comments from the seasoned travellers out there--next best thing when you don't have a crystal ball. I will try and stay "frosty" and watch the fare numbers for a while longer.

Do not even hope for sales for July.

These days, the airlines are cutting back on flights rather than offering cheap fares for unbooked seats.

Airlines are not cutting back on Trans-Atlantic flights. Instead, several are adding capacity in that market, including Delta, Continental, UA and USAirways.

Air France alone has 10 daily flights between NYC and Paris over the summer, including a day flight; which I believe is new as in the past the only day flight to Europe is to London.

Yes, demand is up, but also fuel prices has come down. So, I don't think this year's summer fare will be that much higher (if at all higher) than last year.

Ack! My "beginner's" nerves are starting to jangle again. I posted my query on the "Airlines" board, and rkkwan commented that cheaper fares can come up "2-3 months out". Would that be 2 to 3 months from the start of the high season (i.e. April), or June (i.e. Summer), or ... when?

I have read that Northwest and Icelandair are adding flights across the pond this summer. Right now is a very bad time to book. I have been monitoring fares since September and they are spiking right now. I say wait and they will come down. Maybe not as low as you'd like but there is no way that they will all stay at today's rate. And as to summer fare sales, I already jumped on one on AerLingus. I say wait, although it is hard, but check like crazy.

Hi Ms,

>cheaper fares can come up "2-3 months out". Would that be 2 to 3 months from the start of the high season ...<

From your travel dates.

Also try www.mobissimo.com

Thanks, All, for the clarifications, additional sites and perspective. It helps a great deal! Just curious, using last year as a measure (with all reasonable caveats in mind) or people's actual experience, how much might summer fares to Europe come down if current prices are the "spike"?

Please post if you find anything as I am keeping an eye on the same route for my brother.
Sherry
Likewise I will.

One thing to look at are flights in/out of nearby cities that have easy train connections, such as Amsterdam, Brussels, London, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, etc. If you find a cheaper flight you obviously need to calculate the additional cost of taking the train to/from your ultimate destination, and then figure if the savings is worth it to you.

We were in a similar situation and found r/t fares in/out of Dusseldorf on LTU for $575. This was at least $300 less than the nearest flight so it saves $1200 for 2 adults & 2 kids. The r/t cost for train to/from Dusseldorf is 207 EUR, so for us it is well worth it.

Current price is not a "spike". You need to understand how airlines sell their tickets. They separate their inventories into different "fare class". While the most expensive ones (full-fare "Y&quot will always be available ($1700-2500 or so for US-Europe), the cheaper ones come and goes. The question is when will the lowest price ones be released, or will they ever be released.

Right now, it's 6 months from July 2007 travel, and the airlines are in no hurry to sell those seats cheap. Now, buy one if you &quot;must fly on that specific flight, that specific date&quot;. If you're just a little bit flexible, you <b>may</b> find lower fares.

Having said that, July is high season. Demand is high. So, say 2 months for now, the airlines &quot;feel&quot; like they can still fill the July flights for $1,000, they won't release the lower price tickets, and prices will actually go more up. But if they're going relatively slowly, then they may periodically release some $800-900 seats to fill up the planes.

But there's no specific pattern, and I cannot predict how the demand and supply will balance out in 2-3 months time. That's why I keep saying they may go down a little sometime, I don't know when. But the chance of getting some lower than $800 for June/July is very low.

And you have to keep checking. So, if you want the flight right now, and don't want to bother with checking prices everyday for months, then maybe it's worth it to buy a $1,000 ticket now.

If you have the patience and time, I would recommend checking different sites daily. I did this for 4 months straight beginning in January '06 for travel in July '06. I wasn't looking for Paris tickets (we were looking for Frankfurt tickets instead). The prices I was finding were for $1200 and up per ticket. Finally, one day in April, we found airfare on United for $700 per ticket.

It was a pain to check the different sites daily, but in the end it saved us $1000 on 2 tickets. Good Luck

These posts are so educational. I have looked at a few other options that involve layovers, taking trains, etc. I need to confirm if my travel partner is interested in doing that. Keeping in mind my specific circumstances, I'll hang tough and do the daily checking. Thanks katzen for sharing your 2006 experience, and rkkwan for your industry overview. If I find anything good, I'll certain post about it.

Sorry if the term &quot;spiking&quot; was the wrong term or misleading. What I meant to say is that the fares to Paris that I am finding are higher right now than any I have found in the past several months. I found on ITASoftware last night that Icelandair wanted $2500 for June to Paris from the midwest. Less than 2 weeks ago the same flight was in the mid-$900s. All of the other airlines listed were higher to much higher than say, two weeks ago. That is why I used or misused the term 'spike.'