Heimdall

Good decision! Have a wonderful holiday!

twk

Unless you get caught in Greece at a point when they are going from euros to drachma (if it happens), it probably won't be too much of an issue for a tourist--in fact, it might actually present some bargain opportunities (I could see a scenario where hotel operators and the like might prefer to be paid in euros or dollars rather than drachmas). Whatever is going to happen in Greece should come to a head well before the OP's intended travel dates.

mlynnf50

We are going in our camping car, so if we take cash we should be ok.

twk

<<We are going in our camping car, so if we take cash we should be ok.>> That's as low risk as you can get. And, just to clarify, I think the only chance that a currency change in Greece would interfere with anyone's travel plans is for you to be in Greece the very day it occurs, or shortly thereafter. Even if Greece does leave the euro, things should sort out enough a few days later that someone traveling to Greece should be able to complete their trip. There might be some negotiating to do on currency conversion (if you book a hotel stay in euros, and Greek goes to the drachma, your host might have some heartburn over merely drachmas at the government specified rate, especially if Greece tries to introduce capital controls--but in such a case, someone who could pay euros in cash would probably in line to get a good deal), but anything pre-paid would probably go off without much of a hitch.

Heimdall

A lot of wild speculation on this thread! Here is what a respected British travel expert, Simon Calder, wrote in The Independent (he also comments for the BBC):
http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/...-10004297.html

bvlenci

The public debt of Greece as a percent of GDP is less than Japan's, and its debt as a percentage of tax revenue is also less than Japan's. Nobody's talking about forgiving Japan's debt.

It's just nonsense that Greece's debt is so high that it can't be repaid. Talk to an economist.

IMDonehere

You cannot compare the Japanese and Greek economies, they are vastly different in composition.

sandralist

bvlenci,

I don't know where you've been this past week or what newspapers you read, but the one thing that nearly every economist in the world agrees on at this moment is that Greek's debt is unpayable. You can read this in interviews in all the major newspapers with Nobel prizewinning economists, plus you can read it in the editorials and columns of the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, etc etc

For example (this news story from Business Insider:

"Top economists, including Nobel prize-winners Joseph Stiglitz and Chris Pissarides, are calling for debt forgiveness for Greece as the country heads into a crucial election on Sunday.

A letter published in the Financial Times, co-authored by 18 eminent economists from academia, research institutes and industry, states that...[s]ome form of forgiveness of the country's mountainous sovereign debt burden (currently around 177% of GDP) would be necessary, though not by itself sufficient, in order for the country to aid Europe's prospects for sustainable economic recovery.""

People HAVE asked economists, and the economists -- except for a handful of ideologues in Germany -- disagree with you.

sandralist

And this from an editorial in The Washington Post last week:

"University of California economist Barry Eichengreen, an expert on the euro crisis, told a recent conference of the American Economic Association that the potential fallout of a “Grexit” from the euro could be as dire as the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 — except that Mr. Eichengreen says it “would be Lehman Brothers squared.”

Mr. Eichengreen proposes that, in addition to the more conventional forms of debt relief already contemplated, official creditors — the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European governments led by Germany — sell their Greek bonds at a discount to the private sector, for the purpose of buying Greek firms, property and banks.... if coupled with continued structural reforms, THEY COULD HELP SHRINK GREECE"S MANIFESTLY UNPAYABLE debt more quickly — while giving German and other taxpayers a share of the eventual upside in return for their subsidy. Fresh thinking is a must, lest Greece’s economic crisis spark a populist political fire that could engulf Europe."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...54a_story.html

sandralist

If you know any economists to ask, then ask them the meaning of the words "debt trap" -- or look it up yourself on Google

debt trap
noun
a situation in which a debt is difficult or impossible to repay, typically because high interest payments prevent repayment of the principal.

sandralist

A different letter from 36 economists advocating cancellation of Greek debts, and its first sentence begins:

"As economists, we note that the historical evidence demonstrates the futility and dangers of imposing unsustainable debt and repayment conditions on debtor countries....

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...led-and-growth

sandralist

The facts are that the "bailout" of Greece was actually a massive payoff to the banks that recklessly loaned them the money that forced the Greeks to accept a "loan" that was funnel it banks outside of Greece but requring Greeks to submit to a program of drastically reducing their standard of living to pay back institutional lenders, and forced them to continue to borrow just to make bare ends meet day by day -- and that too was added to the IOU pile. This strangling of the Greek economy made it impossible for any growth to occur -- stores collapses, people were laid off, you can't collect taxes from stones -- so how is this debt going to be repaid?

Worse, other European governments meddled in Greek elections to make sure only "established political parties" who agreed to submit to this would be allowed to hold power in Greece. And guess who those "established politicians" were? The thieves who wrote all the tax laws to make sure they didn't pay any taxes but only the workers did -- except the workers no longer had jobs.

There was a stupid theory run by the most powerful, self-enriching powers within the EU that by driving down Greek wages and services to 3rd world status then Greece could compete with Bangladesh for investment -- and thus some day it could pay the rest of Europe back for having "saved it" from default and bankruptcy.

I have no idea where things are going from here, but I wouldn't talk to the troika at this point either, and the Greeks are right to say there are not going to swallow one more millimeter of this poison.

sandralist

(especially since 99.9 percent of the world's economists agree with them).

Heimdall

Sandralist, this is a travel forum.

PatrickLondon

I seriously doubt if anyone is simply going to shut Greece off, not least because the downside political/credibility risk to the Eurozone project is almost certainly felt to be greater than the cost of continuing some sort of face-saving bail-out. Even if there were a decision to leave the euro, it would take time to organise, and no-one would want sudden chaos anywhere in the EU. This isn't (quite) Argentina or Venezuela.

This thing will drag on and on; the first key way-station, I understand, is the tranche of debt falling due fairly soon: how that negotiation is handled should give plenty of clues as to what might happen later in the year.

vincenzo32951

Agree. The scenario is more likely to be a slow slog rather than a fall off the cliff.

bilboburgler

the big danger was letting Greece and Italy into the Euro. NB the Euro is not the EU. (AND France which also faied the test)

Having got that wrong the rest has come about.

Russia always looks like a friendly father figure, trouble it it brings crime to its politics and economics which will never be escaped. Good luck Greece with that.

sandralist

Heimdall,

Why are you addressing only me and not bvlenci or others? And maybe for you travel in Europe is about something other than learning about Europe and the European Union, but for others it is.

I think it is really important to expose the Big Lie that was sold to the taxpayers of Europe by Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy that it was OK to raid the European piggybank to save reckless French and German bankers, because Greece would be forced to put all the money back into the piggybank. Every time a European citizen asked: "Really? Where are the Greeks going to get that kind of money?" they were told not to worry, that "austerity" programs would revive the Greek economy.

What happened, we now all see, is that it killed the Greek economy and made the debt worse for Greeks. And bvlenci is saying: "But make them pay me the money I loaned them!" If people need to be angry at somebody, they should be angry at the people who lied to them. The money is gone. It was given to French and German banks.

Patrick London and vicenzo32951,

I would think so too but I won't be surprised if it goes the other way. The February "tranche" negotiations were supposed have been between the "troika" and the Greek government, and the Greek government just said it would not negotiate with the troika, but only the EU directly, so that timeline just went out the window. Also, right now part of the immediate problem is that nervous Greeks, especially rich ones, are taking their savings out of Greek banks. It's not quite a bank "run," but it is getting close. Those banks right now are able to continuously replenish their vaults with cash euros from the European Central Bank -- but there are capital reserve conditions that must be met for the ECB to be allowed to do that for any bank, and Greek banks are on a downward spiral.

This issue needs a resoultion more quickly than the usual speed of the EU leadership, for quite a few reasons.

sandralist

For those with the patience to read it, here is an explanation of why Greece could be out of the euro within a few months, or the euro itself could collapse. This article from Der Spiegel is just about the most complete one I've read (with a few minor misstatements) on the present dicey moment -- and yes, it affects people's travel plans

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1015907.html

twk

Greece is taking the first step to impose capital controls in an effort to stem withdrawals from Greek banks.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...red-banks.html

At a rate of one euro for every 1,000 euros withdrawn, this will be only a minor annoyance to tourists (it's aim is to keep Greek depositors from cashing out and taking their money out of Greece, but it won't work). The main reason I think tourists should be interested in this is that it is a significant sign that Greece's exit from the euro (not a certainty, but a real possibility) could well be imminent. As discussed, above, that event shouldn't have a big affect on tourism (and certainly not a long lasting one), but it could make for a few interesting days if you happen to be in Greece when the exit occurs, if it ever does.