PalenQ

Gordon Brown, on a BBC report said, to paraphrase, that the Gloustershire area floods were caused because when old pipes and tiles were laid long ago they did not take in the effect of global warming, which caused this tremendous rainfall and subsequent flooding.

Nature Magazine just carried a piece saying that increased rainfall in UK and northern Europe is to be expected as a consequence of global warming - especially there will be a lot more severe rains and floods as global warming produces more extremes in weather.

Indeed the past June was the wettest in England on record since it began in 1700s.

And the Continent too is suffering thru what some locals call the worst summer ever - Paris outdoor cafes are using heaters, folks are wearing coats, etc.

Meanwhile Romania and the area is coping with record high temps. Again due to global warming it seems. southern Europe may become too hot in summer for some travelers.

So for the traveler the situation's effects may include:

More rain means less pleasure walking around northern cities. Less hiking on muddy footpaths in UK.

Cool rainy summers will cause even more northerners to flee to warmer climates like Italy and Spain each summer, overcrowding already teeming vacation areas.

folks won't ask the evergreen questions "Will i need AC in London, Paris or Amsterdam?

Bike trips in Holland or UK will become a thing of the past?

In general tourism in UK and northern countries may suffer a lot.

What other implications may there be?

And GW deniers and Al Gore haters keep your idiotic comments to yourself - keep your head in the sand, to put it nicely or keep your head up... to put it not so nicely.

audere_est_facere

The floods area catastrophic event - not a climate change. Think along the line of a perfect storm. It won't happen on a regular basis.

As for the rest? Who honestly knows?

PalenQ

<It won't happen on a regular basis>

well many scientists think exactly that it may happen more and more often - so that current flood control mechanisms are inadequate to protect against the 100 year flood that now may occur every few years.

bilboburgler

Certainly over the last few years I see UK as having a rainy season 4 out of 6 years rather than a summer. Similarly the snows of Yorkshire which came every year for a long time now barely give a smattering of cover year after year. Finally the winds we get in the spring early summer are worse and worse.

So yes the climate is changing. The effect can also be seen where the champagne houses are buying wineries in the south of england as their future.

So what to do. Travel by train if you can not car or plane. Fly by plane but full efficient planes. Take longer holidays and buy less stuff. All sounds good to me

hetismij

Hmm I read that it was a La Niña affect causing the jetstream to be disrupted. It is certainly a different scenario to the one they have been flogging us for a long time of us getting a mediterranean climate. Now they are saying warm wet winters and cool wet summers. Yippee. However I for one will not be heading off to melt in 40 degrees of heat in Southern/Eastern Europe. It is lovely and quiet here now, with everyone on holiday. The roads are drivable, my local woods are empty, I can put up with the mud and coolness in exchange for the peace.
It will take more than a few (tens of) centimetres of rain to get the Dutch off their bikes - what are you? Made of sugar?

MaureenB

PalenQ, you are absolutely right. If we can all try to leave a smaller carbon 'footprint', it can help.

Remember the old term: Reduce, Re-use, Recycle. It makes even more sense today. Good words to live by.
>-

Dukey

Pal,

read the other thread about the floods and note the quote from the hydrologist and professor of water management from the University of bristol which i included in my own response earlier today.

He asserts that it is much too early to accurately connect this recent/ongoing phenomenon with golbal warming but he does predict there will be more floods in britain in the future "due to climate change."

PalenQ

hetismij - many scientists seem to think that GW will alter the Gulf Stream and some say it has already started and cannot be stopped - so that northern Europe and UK, currently warmed by the warm currents so even at a far northern latitude have mild winters - that when the stream changes these areas may become tundra - good for those long-distance skates on canals but bitterly cold in winter and cool in summer.

MaureenB - yes right on and i try every way so was daunting to hear on BBC this morning that gas flares burning from oil wells in Nigeria (natural gas is a byproduct and it's burned off in huge flares that have been burning for years) - that if these were put out and the natural gas captured and used - that this would produce more a reduction in GW causes than all the current steps in the rest of the world.

Apparently Russia has many such flares as well.

Gordon_R

The floods are certainly a freak event, who knows it may be related to climate change. But its a bit a a step to then deduce this will lead to more general "cool wet summers" in Europe. During the past 5 summers (including 2 of the hottest on record in the UK), people were making exactly the opposite prediction, that the weather here was somehow morphing into a southern Mediterranean climate and tourists would be flocking here to enjoy the weather!

alanRow

<<< (including 2 of the hottest on record in the UK) >>>

Temperature is not related to rainfall otherwise India wouldn't have a monsoon.

And as of the end of June the UK had been significantly warmer than the long term average.

PalenQ

Again it's my impression that climate change due to human activity probably will produce extremes - yes some hotter than normal summers and summers like this one so far - gone may be the average summers with only hot and cold - again not good for the tourist, especially Americans wed to AC

PatrickLondon

In the not so very long run, we may have to rethink the entire tourism-based economy. Whether we think about the carbon footprint and climate effects of increasing flights, or the effect on the places visited, the extension of mass tourism as more and more countries (particularly the very populous ones) have the disposable income to allow their people to visit the same must-see places, it just may not be sustainable.

How can we develop "virtual tourist" experiences to try and cope?

Gordon_R

Yup, taken as read Alan, but PalenQ made several references to "cool rainy summers", "people in coats etc". I just wanted to make the point that despite the freak rainfall this year, the underlying trend has been for hotter, longer summers.

ira

A. The Earth has been warming, with the exception of the mini-ice age, for the last 25,000 years.

B. According to the IPCC 3rd report, if CO2 levels were miraculously brought down to those of 1990, it would take centuries before the Earth stopped warming.

This assumes that anthropogenic contributions of GreenHouse Gases are the major cause of global warming.

If they are not, the Earth is just going to warm up until it decides to cool down and whatever we do won't matter.

I suggest buying land in Canada.

scrb

London last year in the second week of July was hot and dry, setting high temperature records.

It was like California there.

Also read that the carbon emissions of aircraft is exactly half of all shipping.

bardo1

<i>In general tourism in UK and northern countries may suffer a lot</i>

Prague seems to being doing fine after its' recent &quot;1000 year flood&quot;...

twk

They were growing fine wines in southern England before the &quot;Little Ice Age.&quot; We seem to be inching closer to that type of climate. No doubt, the climate is changing, but that is always the case. Whether or not human activity is contributing (significantly) to this change is not certain, and what we can effectively do about it even if the human contribution is significant is even less certain.

It is interesting to speculate as to what may happen in the future, but in the short term, there is little reason for anyone to change their travel habits with a view to the climate.

janisj

The climate on Venus is warming - human caused greenhouse gasses aren't causing that -- either

tomboy

Reading up on Provence, I came across paragraph about a village on the Mediterranean Sea which boasts a Lascaux-type seaside cave with Paleolithic paintings. The catch is, the entrance is 31 meters below sea level (discovered by a scuba diver). So obviously, it was at or above sea level at some time. I don't think, as craggy as the coast is there, that the land has sunk. Therefore the ocean must have risen, due to melting glaciers. Must have been due to the CO2 from all those campfires, eh?

smueller

Climate is changing. It's happened before and it's happening again.

It's idiotic to think that we can stabilize the planet in whatever state we happen to find most convenient or suitable for our purposes.

There was nothing special about the Earth's climate at the beginning of the 20th century, the start of the industrial revolution, or even when humans first appeared on this planet a few million years ago.

The geologic and geochemical evidence is clear. There is no standard (or &quot;normal&quot atmospheric temperature profile. There is no standard atmospheric concentration of CO2. There is no standard sea level. These parameters have been in constant flux for 4 1/2 billion years.

A few politicians, oblivious to the lessons of geology, have proposed that we simply &quot;lock&quot; the planet into its current state, which is perceived as &quot;normal&quot; by the majority of people.

The Earth may have other plans.