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Old Dec 23rd, 2019 | 12:26 PM
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Finnair tickets - when to buy

We've got one leg left to purchase for our upcoming July 2020 trip (Budapest to Helsinki). The best price/time frame we were able to find was $260/person on Finnair. The entire plane is completely empty (or at least no seats are reserved yet). That cost is higher than I was anticipating, but we are still 7 months away. Norwegian is about $50 cheaper per person, but I'm leery of their financial stability.

When would you recommend us purchasing these tickets now, or will those prices come down from past experience, or will it only go up from here. I realize guessing at airline costs is always a gamble, so hoping some have flown Finnair before and have some experience.

Thanks
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Old Dec 23rd, 2019 | 01:58 PM
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Would you consider a one-stop flight? If so, AirBaltic is as low as $80 on some dates in July. (See skyscanner.)
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Old Dec 23rd, 2019 | 02:35 PM
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Trying to figure out if airfares will go up or down in the next 7 months is a fool's mission. There is no way anyone can give you an accurate prediction. Most savvy travelers will tell you to monitor airfares and when you find a fare you can live with you should go ahead and purchase your tickets then forget about what price others might pay at a later date.

If paying $50/person more now gives you peace of mind you should probably buy your tickets. If, however, that price will cause you to lose sleep than you’ll have to decide whether you want to buy less expensive tickets on an airline that you believe might be financially unstable today or take the chance and hope that airfares on your preferred airline will go down when you are ready to purchase tickets later on. If airfares go up you’ll be the “big loser”.

Really, the choice is yours alone to make.
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Old Dec 23rd, 2019 | 06:13 PM
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If ANYBODY knew absolutely when airfares are the cheapest those anybodys would be billionaires.
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Old Dec 24th, 2019 | 05:10 AM
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Originally Posted by RoamsAround
Trying to figure out if airfares will go up or down in the next 7 months is a fool's mission.


Sorry...I disagree. In my original question I did state "I realize guessing at airline costs is always a gamble, so hoping some have flown Finnair before and have some experience." Obviously no one can know exactly what costs will do. But for those that have experience with flights in that area or on that airline they might have a feel if $260 each way for that flight is typical or not. It's certainly higher than the other two one-way tickets we've purchased.

I can tell you right now that you should be able to fly around in the SE United States on Southwest for around $100 each way. If someone told me they saw a flight for $260 each way from Atlanta to Chicago on Southwest...I'd be able to say "that's higher than usual". That's all I'm asking for.

If this question frustrates you...then move on.

Last edited by Wekiva; Dec 24th, 2019 at 05:20 AM.
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Old Dec 24th, 2019 | 05:27 AM
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I have flown a number of flights on Finnair and I will tell you that they price flights in the same manner as everybody else. They use very sophisticated revenue/yield management algorithms that weigh supply and demand factors (among many) as well as competition, historic load factors, yadda yadda. The fares might go down, or they might go up. What would be a good price for you? $50 cheaper? How about $50 higher?

Except for Norwegian (only a few times a week) Finnair has a monopoly on nonstops on BUD-HEL. If you don't mind traveling a couple of hours longer with a stop en route, on most days in July you can fly KLM via Amsterdam or Air France via Paris, and pay roughly half the Finnair nonstop price. What's your time worth?
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Old Dec 24th, 2019 | 05:44 AM
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Comparing what happens with US domestic flight prices to inter-European ones is a fools mission. They are completely different markets with a whole set of different regulations.

And you are right, a seat map is no indication of how full a flight is. Inventory control is much more sophisticated than that.

Worrying about Norwegian’s finances is pointless too. If you were to believe the Fodor’s posts, they should have folded a year ago. Instead what has happened is they withdrew loss making/expensive routes and have secured much coveted slots at LHR. They are still fighting. Have you looked into Finnair’s finances? They are not great but who cares. If I looked into the finances of every airline I intend to fly on I wouldn’t go anywhere.

Bottom line is no one knows the answer to your question.
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